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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
After last night's NV mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the GA runoff. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
As of now, out of @CookPolitical's 36 House Toss Ups: 18 won by Ds 7 won by Rs 11 still too close to call So far, not a single Lean/Likely/Solid seat has broken the opposite way, though #CA41, #CO03 and #WA03 are still very uncertain. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This is a big win for Dems in a newly drawn seat @CookPolitical rated a Toss Up. #CO08 https://t.co/6Q8bbG3Z4z — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@JRubinBlogger Not really that off, tbh. Republicans might end up +10, not far off the lower end of our range (and we conveyed a very high uncertainty). You might want to go after the people predicting 30+ seats. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
FWIW, anyone who’s proclaimed they’ve seen enough in #CO03 doesn’t know how to interpret election data. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Between the thrashings of Dennis Kucinich in ‘12 and J.R. Majewski in ‘22, I think the lesson of Ohio redistricting is: don’t f*** with Marcy Kaptur in Toledo. #OH09 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In a slight reversal of Republicans' recent structural advantage on the House map, they're currently on track to win about 51% of House seats with about 52% of the two-party vote - despite having gerrymandered far more states/districts than Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @NateSilver538: So, I'm glad that one of the takeaways from last night is that candidate quality matters. It matters less than it did be… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Midterm interest/turnout clearly wasn't all it was cracked up to be. We're up to 92.9 million House votes tallied and will easily surpass 100 million, but on track to fall well short of the 114 million cast in 2018. https://t.co/575GB6InE0 https://t.co/Vcr5UQpR8Y — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
And, to be clear, the GOP margin will narrow considerably when we get more vote from CA, OR, WA and plenty of other big cities that take longer to count votes. We've got a long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A big shoutout to @alflinn and @MattKleinCPR for the outstanding work they've put into building our best tracker yet. We'll be keeping it updated with the latest tallies from official sources until everything's certified. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The 2022 @CookPolitical House Vote Tracker is now live! The craziest thing: Republicans are winning the House popular vote by 6.4% so far but just scraping by in the race for control. https://t.co/YOAzUtsM9F https://t.co/pGICoSCNv9 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @CharlotteAlter: One good point @Redistrict made: Rs in solid blue states like NY may be overperforming national average, partly because… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: If the Dems end up losing the House, I think it can be said that they lost it in New York: they blew redistricting, and then… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Democrats' Nevada gerrymander looks like it worked out after all. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @npfandos: NEWS: Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of the DCCC, just called Republican Mike Lawler to concede his Lower Hudson Valley r… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Key point for 2024 👇 — PolitiTweet.org
Kyle Kondik @kkondik
Rs got their Supreme Court victories in OH and NC. Likely has consequences for redistricting next year -- Ds had a… https://t.co/ZE1OWqzzqI
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In retrospect, I think this was key. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
There's a tendency for forecasters to get caught up in the doom/momentum narrative that takes hold late in a cycle… https://t.co/V0z1tKVLxR
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
That Dem turnout problem in FL? Yes, it was real - and massive. Luckily for Dems, it didn’t really materialize anywhere else. Between Dems crushing competitive OH/MI/NH/PA/TX House races but dragging in FL/NY, this is the most uneven midterm I’ve ever seen. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Republicans wouldn’t be slight favorites to win House control right now if they hadn’t been able to gerrymander far more states than Dems. And, Dems wouldn’t hold the slight majority today if courts hadn’t struck down GOP gerrymanders in FL, NC, PA and VA in the last 7 years. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Well, that was the craziest Election Night I’ve ever seen. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Biennial reminder: I'll be dark on Twitter from 6pm-6am tonight as I crunch data at the @NBCNews Decision Desk, as I've done every prez/midterm year since 2008. BEWARE: anyone posting in my name on Twitter during that time period is impersonating me. See you on the flip side. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If the bottom truly drops out for FL Dems, two House races to watch: #FL22 Rep. Lois Frankel (D), a Biden +18 seat, and #FL23 OPEN (Deutch) (D), a Biden +13 seat. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One thing to remember tonight: even though redistricting made lots of GOP-leaning House seats (@CookPolitical PVI Even to R+5) a lot safer, it increased the number of Dem-leaning seats (Even to D+5) from 46 to 48 - adding to Dems' exposure in the event of a big GOP wave. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Big theme/vibe of 2022: split-ticket voting. — PolitiTweet.org
Tim Callery @TimCalWMUR
Some early results coming in. @GovChrisSununu, @SenatorHassan and @RepAnnieKuster take the top spots in their races… https://t.co/sl04GRh4Cu
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A good summary by @AmyeWalter on the three most likely scenarios tonight. FWIW, I'm leaning towards a different one today than I was yesterday. https://t.co/MJZsOkToqB — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In recent years, R voters have generally enjoyed their largest turnout advantage in the first 2-3 hours of EDay voting. So, it's possible these gaps will narrow - and these are just two states. But, these are just large differentials for Dems to overcome in the next few hours. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Noon turnout reports in VA Beach - a majority of Rep. Elaine Luria's (D) Toss Up #VA02 - show most heavily GOP precincts up to 55-60% of '21 votes cast, vs. 40-45% in most non-white precincts. Total ballots cast skewing much more R than '20 in many FL counties, esp. Miami-Dade. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It's pretty apparent from precinct-level data in VA and county-level data in FL that Democrats have a turnout problem today - one that's unlikely to be solved in the next six hours. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
IDK about bloodbath, but yeah, this isn't good for Dems in Miami. — PolitiTweet.org
Patrick Ruffini @PatrickRuffini
🚨 Miami-Dade is going to be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats. In 2018, Dems outvoted Republicans by at least 70… https://t.co/6RN8ir6Vp6
