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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @JacobRubashkin: This has been the story of the VA Democratic gubernatorial primary so far. If it continues to be the story, it's hard t… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @nataliemj10: This is amazing. Actual peer-reviewed analysis showing that there are indeed swing voters *and* that turnout matters. It's… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One more point here: yes, it's tough to reconcile algorithmic redistricting methods w/ the VRA. But don't underestimate the number of current maps that short-change opportunities for minorities b/c they *over*-pack minority voters into maj-min VRA districts. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@JHagner It's also how Dems could avoid a 1-8 map in Indiana or Republicans could avoid a 0-8 map in Maryland, and would save states a ton of hassle/fighting. If you're looking for proportionality, don't expect it through districting. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @greggiroux: By the end of next week we'll have the reapportionment of the 435 U.S. House districts for the 2022-2030 elections: https:… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @CharlieCookDC: Here is the direct link to my episode on Zac McCrary’s Pro Politics podcast. link: https://t.co/rUa2aUCNNJ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To prevent trampling county/municipal boundaries, maps would be required to split only the number of counties/subdivisions necessary to achieve equally populous districts (so for a state w/ 13 districts, 12 splits max). You're welcome. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Redistricting solution: hold a public contest to divide a state into contiguous, equally populous districts using the shortest line length possible. Entry with shortest total line length at contest deadline is enacted. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @amyewalter: I know that the “defund police” and “socialism” gets most of the credit for GOP wins in the House last year, but I don’t th… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Stivers once held a competitive seat, but it was redrawn in 2011 to be safe for him. Voted for Trump by 14.3% in 2020. @CookPolitical rating remains Solid R. — PolitiTweet.org
Jake Sherman @JakeSherman
NEWS here … @RepSteveStivers is leaving Congress to lead the Ohio Chamber. A GOP special election in Ohio is comi… https://t.co/Gls7R2CODa
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: The rise of political sectarianism is a growing threat to American democracy https://t.co/lDfXb6ZpUE — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@davidshor DeFazio would be at real risk...Schrader could run in the Clackamas district but could lose a primary. GOP would be favored in new Salem district. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
...whereas if Dems were drawing a purely partisan map, they'd probably draw a pretty secure 5D-1R map (below). That's potentially a two seat swing. Republicans only need five seats to take back the House in 2022. https://t.co/2mRrmhrGa6 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Why is this such a big deal for Congress in 2022? If a court were drawing a compact, partisan-blind Oregon map, they might end up drawing 3/6 seats that at least *lean* Republican (below). https://t.co/e52Sc8fv8e — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To be clear, I should have said "exclusive" control over redistricting. There will now be equal numbers of Ds & Rs on redistricting committees, which increases the likelihood Oregon courts will draw the new map. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Interesting: to stop Republicans from engaging in delay tactics, Democrats in the Oregon state legislature have struck a deal to relinquish total control over redistricting. Oregon is slated to gain a sixth House seat in '22, so this could be a big deal. https://t.co/goiz1Y6piD — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
McClellan is by far the more experienced legislator. But she just hasn't put together a viable campaign. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Terry McAuliffe's glide path to the Dem #VAGOV primary has been premised on two Black female opponents splitting votes. But today's $$ reports suggest more of a two-person race. COH as of 4/1: McAuliffe: $8.5 million Jennifer Carroll Foy: $2.3 million Jenn McClellan: $442k — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A classmate sent me some pics of some of the super high-tech election maps I drew when I was 15(?). So I guess at least one person thought it was cool. https://t.co/HdESXDWyOY — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Not sure if #ElectionTwitter is an unofficial club, state of mind, or what. All I know is when I was a ‘90s kid obs… https://t.co/82jK2sHmYv
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
My one piece of advice: there’s no substitute for occasionally getting away from the computer and soaking up politics IRL (when the world permits). Whether it’s meeting local candidates, working on campaigns, talking to voters in places unlike your own...you’ll be better for it. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Not sure if #ElectionTwitter is an unofficial club, state of mind, or what. All I know is when I was a ‘90s kid obsessed w/ political maps, I wish I’d known other kids who thought it was cool. So it makes me pretty happy it’s a thing now...and I hope one of them will mentor me. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @rpyers: Harsh Lincoln Project subtweet. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The top overperformer vs. the top of the ticket in 2020: #NY24 Rep. John Katko (R), who voted to impeach Trump. The top underperformer? #MN05 Rep. Ilhan Omar (D). https://t.co/LQAzBFX7Ts https://t.co/hRJ9El0wCP — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Peak DC has been complaining about an annoying gate, when the truth is we have a more conveniently located airport w/ better food and more direct flights than like 99% of America. — PolitiTweet.org
Adam Tuss @AdamTuss
And of course - this expansion means the end of the dreaded gate 35x where you have to board the plane outside. The… https://t.co/3rcJwWxiUU
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The top GOP-trending district in the country? Rep. Bill Johnson (R)'s #OH06, which moved from R+16 to R+24. Rep. Tim Ryan (D)'s #OH13 was second, D+7 to D+1. https://t.co/EJwkvvb3RQ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The top Dem-trending district in the country? Rep. Lucy McBath (D)'s #GA06, which moved from R+8 to D+1. https://t.co/LQAzBFX7Ts https://t.co/diVCm05A5x — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
On the other hand, 2020 also saw the fewest number of "crossover" districts in memory, with just 16/435 districts splitting their tickets for President/House. This number was 35 districts in 2016 and 108 in 1996. https://t.co/LQAzBFX7Ts https://t.co/avkWFfVvIh — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Two countervailing trends explain this rebound: 1) Many former heavily R suburban seats reacted badly to Trump and became less so in 2016/2020 2) Plenty of heavily Hispanic (FL/TX) and northern blue-collar districts became much less reliably Dem — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Peak polarization? For the first time in @CookPolitical PVI history, the number of "swing seats" (between D+5 and R+5) rebounded slightly, from 72 to 78 (it was 164/435 in 1997). https://t.co/LQAzBFX7Ts https://t.co/EtjSj0FvBc — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The new most Republican district in the country? Rep. Robert Aderholt (R)'s #AL04, at R+34. But there are 15 Dem-held seats that are D+34 or more. The new most Dem seat: Rep. Dwight Evans (D)'s #PA03, at D+41. https://t.co/wtgEq14BI4 — PolitiTweet.org
