Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@dianegreco Voters are doing most of the sorting by clustering in places where their neighbors agree with them, or politically aligning with the people near them — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When districts become prohibitively red/blue due to voter sorting rather than changes to boundaries - which is the story w/ most polarized seats, tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Agreed, except Gaetz/MTG districts aren’t that gerrymandered. Toxic backbenchers’ best protectors? Increased partisan news consumption, district homogeneity and straight-ticket voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Important points by @NYUlaw's Rick Pildes. Safe seats foster political extremism, and an emphasis on "partisan fairness" metrics risks overlooking a key driver of dysfunction: a lack of competitiveness. https://t.co/B0G6Sjei8q — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @laurabronner: How the unevenness of America's democracy threatens to unravel it, by @baseballot, @elena___mejia and me: https://t.co/G… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: don't get me wrong, a commission map is certainly preferable for Dems vs. the GOP drawing the map all over again. But, w/ the delegation tied 7D-7R, there could still be more downside risk for Dems. Michigan is *very* high-stakes, w/ a ton of uncertainty. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big decision for the commission: where to put Ann Arbor. If it's in a district similar to Rep. Debbie Dingell (D)'s current #MI12, she'd be safe. But if it's moved to, say, Rep. Tim Walberg (R)'s #MI07, both of them could be forced to run in highly competitive districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another major concern for Dems: #MI05 Rep. Dan Kildee (D), whose Flint seat has been trending R and voted for Biden by just 4%. #MI05 needs to pick up about 100k residents and he's surrounded on most sides by heavily pro-Trump territory. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, it's possible #MI09 Rep. Andy Levin (D) & #MI11 Rep. Haley Stevens (D) get thrown together (below), and #MI08 Rep. Elissa Slotkin is forced to run in a swingy, much more Lansing-centric seat. In the words of one House Dem, "I'm worried we've outkicked our coverage." https://t.co/rrNlZCR4bA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2018, the GOP gerrymander crumbled and Ds picked up two suburban Detroit seats, #MI08 and #MI11. But now, every seat needs to expand. And w/ two Black majority seats to preserve (#MI13 and #MI14 below), there may not be enough blue turf left to protect all four suburban Ds. https://t.co/Tqr9LjkRr7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MICHIGAN: is shrinking from 14 to 13 seats, and w/ a new citizens' commission, few incumbents are safe. Somewhat ironically, *Dems* might have more to lose switching from the current GOP gerrymander (left) to a more compact plan (example, right). Here's why... https://t.co/KA4DNHogOC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

MASSACHUSETTS: there isn't likely to be much drama this time in gerrymandering's birthplace. Ds hold veto-proof majorities & Rs haven't won a House race there since 1994. Rep. Richard Neal (D)'s #MA01 needs to pick up about 40,000 people, but not hard to solve. https://t.co/i5dbXI2fHd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: As everyone chews over prospects for redistricting, one of the more under-appreciated storylines from 2020 was Dems inabili… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The overarching theme is more interesting than the anti-woke part: the idea that Dems can't define themselves or their oppos… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If I had to rank states by most uncertainty & highest redistricting stakes for House control, here are my top dozen atm: 1. New York 2. Ohio 3. Michigan 4. California 5. Arizona 6. New Jersey 7. North Carolina 8. Oregon 9. Texas 10. Florida 11. Illinois 12. Pennsylvania — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SamWangPhD Would respectfully disagree...just wait for the 14D-3R map in IL. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you can’t tell by now, the most predictable effect of redistricting is that red states’ delegations are likely to get redder and blue states bluer - meaning the nation’s political conditions are likely to continue to deteriorate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here is the current 19D-8R NY map (left) and the hypothetical 23D-3R gerrymander (right) shaded by partisan lean, via @davesredist. No voters moved, just the lines. https://t.co/7yLwlqbVmT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@EJDionne Here's our state-by-state redistricting scorecard (at bottom): https://t.co/qDEAQHGIZF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Funny you should ask. The 2021 @CookPolitical Redistricting Scorecard currently projects a 3-4 seat net GOP gain from redistricting alone, w/ a lot of uncertainty in many states. https://t.co/qDEAQHGIZF https://t.co/FuPVzWThuh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RRHElections @RussOnPolitics It's actually 2, 21 and 23 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot Actually not so sure about that. If NY hadn't lost a seat, it could be difficult to merge Upstate Republicans as efficiently as in the plan above. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Likewise, Minnesota keeping its 8th seat isn't necessarily "good for Dems." Had it lost a seat, there was a strong chance courts would've merged GOP Reps. Tom Emmer and Michelle Fischbach into one seat (#MN06 on left). Instead, the status quo (right) is more likely. https://t.co/UyxaQxpmzx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections https://t.co/HbrZBXsLZC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: NY losing a seat isn't necessarily "bad for Dems." If the Dem legislature overrules the commission, it could replace the current 19D-8R map w/ the hypothetical 23D-3R map below. How maps are drawn will matter more than each state's number of seats. https://t.co/AAQXO18C5P — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: NY losing a seat isn't necessary "bad for Dems." If the Dem legislature overrules the commission, it could replace the current 19D-8R map w/ the hypothetical 23D-3R map below. Redistricting will matter a lot more than reapportionment. https://t.co/FOxfUB5Fvh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My 4,600-word, state-by-state analysis of what the new Census numbers mean for redistricting & the fight for House control, featuring must-see interactives by @alflinn, is now live for @CookPolitical subscribers: https://t.co/nr5qOFrBnl https://t.co/HUfigC6oPz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The weaker-than-expected seat counts for AZ, FL and TX (along w/ CA's seat loss) make you wonder whether there's a larger-than-expected, systemic undercount in heavily Hispanic areas. If so (and we'll find out in the fall), that could be bad news for those areas - and Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Everyone (including me) assumed Arizona would gain a 10th seat, but Idaho came nearly as close to gaining a 3rd seat. Wild. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @greggiroux: Here are the bubble districts -- where the last 10 districts went and where the next 10 would have gone. ("Priority values"… — PolitiTweet.org