Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just a few problems here... 1) GOP not going to “make changes”2) The market for this kind of effort consists of more retired R officials than actual voters 3) Even if such a third party existed, it would siphon more votes from Dems than Trump Rs https://t.co/MKQCot3pIc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NormaRaeLikeaMF: @Redistrict Face it, Dave: you've lost your touch. Virginia is blue. BLUE BLUE BLUE. Next you'll be saying a Republica… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@PollGuy8 What if I think Rs have a good chance to take advantage of a narrow path? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Periodic reminder: if you don't want to hear an appraisal of an election because it's not as rosy for your candidate/side as you'd like, there's an unfollow button. I'm on this site to call it as I see it (and disclaimer: I've never met an analyst who gets it 100% right). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@TossupBot I don't know, maybe because one of those races was 31 years ago and Romney was on the ballot less than 10 years ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another way to think about Youngkin's narrow #VAGOV path: if you were to take the most pro-GOP showing of Romney '12, Trump '16 or Trump '20 in each of Virginia's 133 localities, it would add up to a statewide GOP margin of 50,835 votes (~1.3%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Moreover, despite VA's obvious long-term Dem trend, its gubernatorial races haven't moved in a straight line: 1997: GOP +13.3 2001: Dem +5.1 2005: Dem +5.7 2009: GOP +17.4 2013: Dem +2.5 2017: Dem +8.9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JRubinBlogger The last two VA gov races w/ a Dem in the White House... 2009: GOP +17.4 2013: Dem +2.5 (w/ a very polarizing R nominee) But write off the race all you want...we'll see who's right. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JRubinBlogger All of which proves that Republicans win governorships in states much bluer than VA all the time. But, I guess you've already determined this fall's winner, so fortunately we can all move on to other topics. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JRubinBlogger Bluer than New England? You sure about that? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: Dems have an initial advantage for #VAGOV, but it's competitive w/ Youngkin (and his deep pockets) as the GOP nominee. Dems shouldn't assume Virginia's anti-Trump shift is automatically a durable, pro-Democratic shift. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another huge suburban battleground Youngkin would need to snap back: Virginia Beach, which voted for Cuccinelli by 2 pts in 2013 but Northam by 5 pts in 2017. Unlike the past two GOP nominees, Youngkin has roots in Hampton Roads - which could be helpful. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To put it in perspective: a 22 pt margin sounds like a lot, but Northam (D) won it by 37 in 2017 and Biden won it by 42. This fall will test whether the blue shift is permanent up and down the ballot, or back to being more elastic w/ Trump out of office. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2013, Ken Cuccinelli (R) only lost Fairfax County to Terry McAuliffe (D) by 22 points. If Glenn Youngkin (R) can spend enough in DC to keep his deficit there in the same range, he'd have a chance, given rural VA's drift right since. Still uphill for Rs. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As I see it, the problem w/ reincarnating the old 1990s-era Missoula/Bozeman/Helena #MT01 is that it would be way over target population today. A related problem: Gigli was unwatchable. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CharlotteAlter: Elise Stefanik and top Cuomo aide Melissa DeRosa had been close friends since middle school. In 2019, DeRosa told me th… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough. Former Carlyle Group CEO Glenn Youngkin has won the Republican convention for #VAGOV and will be the party's nominee in the fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Round 5 over: Amanda Chase officially eliminated from contention. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Can someone please help me out here? #VAGOP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Round 5 is underway, and only 15% of votes are tallied, but Youngkin is absolutely cleaning up among Cox's second-choice voters, 51%-31%. Unless there's some miraculous Snyder performance among Chase's voters, it's pretty much over. #VAGOP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Round 4 over: Cox officially out (Chase out next). Youngkin lead over Snyder falls from 7.16% to 6.61%. Now, time to see what Cox second-choice votes look like. Still not really seeing a path for Snyder. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections Yeah, Biden's strength in MN surprised me (especially considering other midwestern states moved against Trump by much less). News flash: everyone gets it wrong from time to time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Snyder has made up some minor ground on Youngkin among second place de la Pena votes, but let's see what happens in rounds 5/6. Still very much Youngkin's to lose. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ChazNuttycombe: People forget that a lot of things went wrong for the VA GOP in 2017 leading them to disaster. - Gillespie's general e… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jonathanchait https://t.co/WGqMNnLNmd https://t.co/TWMinEkk6F — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big reason Liz Cheney's argument that Trump is a detriment to the GOP isn't resonating w/ her GOP colleagues: her case is murky at best. In the past five years, down-ballot Rs have performed objectively better with Trump *on* the ballot than off. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Catlist credits the surge of new voters into the electorate (29% overall) helped Biden more than Trump. New voters "support… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. Glenn Youngkin clobbers the competition in Virginia Beach, stretching is lead over Snyder to 32.91% to 25.82% entering Round 2. This thing is close to over. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Imagine being triggered by a pundit saying Rs have a *chance* to win a gubernatorial race in a state where in the last two such elections held during a D presidency, GOP nominees won by 17.4% (2009) and lost by 2.5% (2013). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Never thought I'd say this, but I could get used to covering ranked-choice vote elections. — PolitiTweet.org