Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lost in the fury is that Manchin reiterated support for something that's always been much more workable/attainable than HR1: a bipartisan John Lewis voting rights bill that would revive and re-operationalize Section 5 of the VRA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @HotlineJosh: "The Gray Migration — hardly a new feature of the Sunshine State — provided the GOP with new voters. Between 1988 and 2020… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Worth noting that #NM01 Rep.-elect Melanie Stansbury (D) aggressively pushed back against GOP "defund the police" attacks by featuring law enforcement in her ads & touting securing public safety funding. She won by 25 points, surpassing Biden's margin. https://t.co/qPmdxsa0Yq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems' only hope for the midterms (but also one I'm not ready to dismiss): that the current GOP coalition is overly reliant on peripherally engaged voters who only bother to show up when Trump is on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman on all levels tbh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looks likely Stansbury (D) will easily clear 15, maybe even Biden's 23? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Stansbury (D) is now up 31.2 points with 93k votes counted. I'd expect the remainder of the #NM01 vote to be much more Moores (R)-friendly, but the vast majority of votes are in and it's not on pace to be especially close. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Melanie Stansbury (D) defeats Mark Moores (R) in #NM01 special election to fill the unexpired term of Deb Haaland (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First #NM01 result has Moores (R) leading Stansbury (D) by 21 points in the tiny corner of Santa Fe Co. in the district. Not a cause for concern for Ds, b/c Haaland lost it by 28 points last fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Previous June special elections (think GA06 in ‘17 & CA50 in ‘06) got lots of attention & money from party committees. Toda… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's my line on the #NM01 special tonight (district was Biden +23, Haaland +16 in '20). Melanie Stansbury (D) by... >15: Dems should be very happy 10-15: about what we might expect <10: sign of a Dem turnout problem post-Trump — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big winner in this scenario would be Rep. Lauren Underwood (D), whose #IL14 would go from Biden +2 to Biden +15 after picking up Joliet and Bolingbrook. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A 14D-3R map would eliminate Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R)'s #IL16 (Dems figure he'd lose a primary to a pro-Trump R anyway) and severely threaten #IL13 Rep. Rodney Davis (R). Here's the hypothetical map shaded by partisan lean: https://t.co/rc9sKZRQNY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ILLINOIS: per sources, Dems are considering redrawing #IL17 even more aggressively in light of Rep. Cheri Bustos (D)'s exit, in a bid to save their House majority. In the 14D-3R example below, #IL17 would go from Trump +2 to Biden +3. All 13 other D seats are Biden +12 or more. https://t.co/8Sng81Hmog — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AveryTheComrade dub on many levels — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChazNuttycombe Just got a Levine mailer on official letterhead asking for support for his delusional bid for LG *and* delegate. Gets an ethics red card from me. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Can someone born after 1990 please translate this for me — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@DaveWeisserman Clinton got 50.58% of the two party vote in #NJ07, Biden got 55.05%, for an average of 52.82%. Their average national share of the two party vote was 51.75%. 52.82% - 51.75% = 1.07%, hence D+1. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@lxeagle17 Lol. I literally published forecast maps of a 14-3 Illinois and an 8-0 Maryland. FYI, Dems don’t control NJ’s redistricting commission. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@lxeagle17 In my view, there’s the potential for Dems to cut a deal to nuke #NJ07 to avoid the risk of the commission tiebreaker picking a GOP map that nukes both #NJ03 and #NJ07. I have a fuller write up coming soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@umichvoter I am from NJ and have done quite a bit of research into the upcoming commission process, so happy to discuss anytime — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@lxeagle17 I expect Dems to opt for unilateral disarmament? That’s news to me — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, there is virtually no “ungerrymandered” version of #OH04 that would imperil Jordan or make it remotely competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MarcACaputo: Rep. Stephanie Murphy won’t run for U.S. Senate, a decision that was sealed after fellow Florida Congresswoman Val Demings… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ZachMontellaro: Republicans who worked to undercut or overturn Biden's victory are now running for secretary of state, meaning politici… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On net, this could cost Dems a seat. One possibility is that the commission's Dems would cut a deal for a 9D-3R map that would essentially guarantee Tom Kean (R) a ticket to Congress in #NJ07 but also safeguard #NJ03 Rep. Andy Kim (D), who sits in a Trump district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The stock scandal surrounding Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) could make it easier for NJ's redistricting commission to throw him under the bus, turning his #NJ07 (left) into a safe GOP seat (right) - which would shore up #NJ05 Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) & #NJ11 Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D). https://t.co/2mzajCEgW3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @EJDionne: There is a new center of gravity among Democrats. Most continue to stand strongly for Israel’s survival as a democratic Jewis… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RadioFreeTom @dandrezner Yes but we’re calling her Ke$ha for short — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.s. big shoutout to the Census Bureau...please keep the redistricting data delays coming. — PolitiTweet.org