Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEW: Dems have gained redistricting power since 2010 BUT they've also ceded some of it to commissions/power shares (like i… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For such a small state, New Hampshire is pretty high stakes. If Republicans are able to leverage the redistricting process to gain one of the state's two seats, that's 20% of what they need for the House majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How would Republicans swing #NH01 six points right? They would stuff Pappas's hometown of Manchester (and lefty Conway) into Rep. Annie Kuster (D)'s #NH02 in exchange for much more GOP-friendly turf: Salem, Windham, Atkinson, Pelham, Hudson, Hollis, New Boston, Weare and more. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW HAMPSHIRE: Republicans flipped both chambers in 2020 and now fully control Concord - and redistricting. That's a big deal, because they could target #NH01 Rep. Chris Pappas (D) by redrawing his Biden +6 district (left) to an almost-Trump district (right). https://t.co/73cesetNrH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In a click-driven age, there's a dangerous tendency to conflate changes that are best practice/required by federal law with developments that could actually risk election subversion. Given the stakes, it's imperative for news organizations to be careful and clear. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Once again, a major news outlet's headline omits the rather important detail that *every* state routinely removes moved/inactive voters from their rolls as a best practice of election administration. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: This is a semi-regular PSA that states routinely conduct systemic voter list maintenance the year after big elections. T… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JacobRubashkin My reports can’t compete bc my macbook’s memory taps out at ~12 tabs and ~5 excel spreadsheets — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An alternative? Dems could stretch one of the suburban Las Vegas seats to Reno and pack more GOP parts of Clark Co. into a district w/ the rural Cow Counties. But tbh, I'm not sure the net D performance boost would be worth the contortions. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only complication? Hispanic state legislators might object to reducing the Latino % in #NV01, where former state Sen. Yvanna Cancela (D) is expected to run when Rep. Dina Titus (D) decides to leave. In the hypothetical above (right), #NV01's Latino share would remain >40%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The easiest way to do that? Shift heavily GOP parts of Henderson & Centennial Hills into the downtown Las Vegas #NV01 (Biden +25, left) - which would make both #NV03 and #NV04 about 5 pts bluer (right) while #NV01 would remain safe. https://t.co/l4IJRfM3lc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEVADA: Dems hold a 3D-1R lead in House seats and control redistricting here for the first time ever. But they'll need to shore up #NV03 and #NV04 in the Las Vegas suburbs, both of which they held by <5 pts in 2020. https://t.co/pDK06fDii0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As some commenters have noted, Republicans are slightly short of a filibuster-proof majority in the (technically nonpartisan) unicameral (~32R-17D), so that would be the main constraint on this type of hyper-aggression. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I should add, the map above might not be the limit of how aggressive Republicans could get. In the example below, all three districts including #NE02 would've voted for Trump by 12+ points in 2020. https://t.co/jfqhf8emza — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, splitting up Omaha and diluting its Black vote could run into stiff opposition from civic groups & potentially courts. We'll see how it unfolds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty much the only way for the GOP unicameral to wrest #NE02 back into the red column would be to split Omaha. Adding the rest of Sarpy Co. (Bellevue) to #NE02 and moving Omaha's bluest precincts into #NE03 (below) would flip #NE02 from Biden +6 to Trump +1. https://t.co/1JFXA03UMK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEBRASKA: Republicans control redistricting and hold a 3-0 monopoly on House seats, but it's high steaks nonetheless - Omaha's #NE02 has been highly competitive and Biden captured its lone Electoral Vote in 2020. https://t.co/1aK3bwxTRT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: the nation's voting patterns have evolved in such a way that the goals of 1) curbing gerrymandering and 2) preserving/enhancing minority opportunities are no longer in that much tension. At the moment, it presents a strong opportunity for Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today, consider Cincinnati. In the current GOP map, Hamilton Co. is split in two, diluting Black votes. If Ohio were forced to draw a district entirely within Hamilton Co. (which is possible!), it would virtually guarantee a new opportunity for a minority candidate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Take NC, for example. Back in 1992, it took a snakelike district stretching from Charlotte to Durham to elect a Black candidate. Today, a district entirely within Mecklenburg Co. - #NC12 - comfortably elects a Black candidate of choice. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, contrary to the situation 20-30 years ago, I'd argue rules like these would not only rein in the most extreme gerrymandering but would be *increase* minority opportunities to win congressional seats... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Simple, easy-to-follow rules - i.e., "if X districts can fit within a county, they must be drawn" and "only split the minimum number of municipalities necessary to create equally populous districts" - would go a long way, and would probably have the best chance of passing. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I don’t think an independent commission mandate would be workable in time for the current redistricting cycle. But, provisions banning unnecessary splits of counties/subdivisions could be and, while not eliminating gerrymandering, would help rein in its most extreme excesses. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The catch, of course, is that this logic requires progressives to recognize that voter suppression, however odious they may… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ZachMontellaro: A looming "potential crisis for democracy": Election officials fear there could be a brain drain in the industry in the… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: New from me: Congress likely won't take action on the growing threats to election integrity, leaving election workers vu… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PeterHamby: If Eric Adams wins as a former cop running to fix crime — with a coalition of black and white outer borough voters who are… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even since 2014, the last good Republican midterm, Dems have made robust gains w/ the highest-turnout midterm demogs (white, college), while Rs have made modest gains w/ lowest-turnout midterm demogs (Hispanic, non-college). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, Republicans are on track to net ~5 seats from reapportionment/redistricting alone, before even considering a midterm penalty. https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, the better argument (and we'll see, based on hard results from 2021/other races between now and next November) is that the Trump/GOP coalition could be overly reliant on low-propensity voters who don't care a lot about midterms. — PolitiTweet.org