Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The median NYC precinct is currently reporting 79% more votes counted (excluding absentees) than the uncompetitive '17 mayoral primary. But 405/5,901 precincts are reporting *fewer* votes than '17, including 130 in Brooklyn, 117 in the Bronx and 111 in Queens. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Per my math, there are 117 precincts in the Bronx where there are *fewer* EDay votes tallied than there were in 2017, an uncompetitive mayoral primary. In the Bronx's other 819 precincts, the median increase in votes tallied vs. 2017 is +46%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn I've wondered that too. There are precincts in the Bronx where turnout looks on par with the rest of the city (Riverdale, and even some heavily Latino precincts where votes are up 50%+ vs. '17). Then there are scores where votes counted are *down* vs. '17, in some cases 50%+. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My condensed notes on the state of play in NYC... https://t.co/0IxLZhvK6J — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To my knowledge, @BOENYC hasn't made clear how many *affidavit* ballots are outstanding from EDay in addition to the 125,419 uncounted absentees it lists. If anyone has answers, feel free to reply. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @grace_panetta: Republicans have the upper hand in drawing new congressional maps, but Democratic-trending suburbs make the GOP’s task t… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Potentially. There are thousands (unclear exactly how many) of uncounted EDay votes all over the city, but higher concentrations in the Bronx & other pro-Adams areas. It likely to increase Adams's lead heading into the final round of RCV. By how much? Hard to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The deeper I dive into the precinct data, the more obviously underreported EDay precincts I'm finding. At the very least, @BOENYC owes the public an estimate of how many EDay votes (not just absentees) remain uncounted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@cinyc9 I think there could be 2k outstanding EDay votes out in Bronx's AD85 alone. If there are a few hundred to a thousand EDay votes underreported in a lot of ADs, that could have a pretty substantial effect on RCV math. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@cinyc9 @BOENYC Check out AD85 in the Bronx. There are 18/75 precincts where '21 turnout jumped 25%+ vs. '17. There are also 17/75 precincts where '21 turnout is supposedly *down* 59%+ vs. '17. That's an extreme case, but there are plenty of underreported precincts out there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a really terrific map, and the point is well taken. But to my eye it looks kind of blotchy, esp. in the Bronx: there are plenty of precincts w/ way low '21 vote totals adjacent to demographically similar precincts where turnout looks much healthier. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@cinyc9 @BOENYC That's undoubtedly true, but there are also plenty of EDs (esp. in the Bronx) where the @BOENYC's unofficial results say not all scanners have been reported — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why does this matter? To the extent there are still lots of unreported Election Day votes - esp. in areas that favor Adams - it could raise the % of absentee ballots Garcia needs to win to overcome Adams in a final RCV round. Bottom line: there's still a lot we don't know. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: these differentials will only widen once Manhattan-heavy absentees are added to the totals. Altogether, the Bronx is a pretty big statistical outlier here. Given what we've seen from @BOENYC today, I wouldn't rule out a substantial under-reporting error. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And here's the @BOENYC's *supposed* increase in votes cast vs. the '13 mayoral primary by borough: Brooklyn +25% Staten Island +21% Queens +15% Manhattan +13% -------------- Bronx -3% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@dooraven @BOENYC 2017 was an off-cycle election — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tonight's debacle brings us back to the Bronx mystery. Setting aside the 130k "fake" votes issue, here's the @BOENYC's *supposed* increase in votes cast vs. the '17 mayoral primary by borough: Queens +78% Manhattan +71% Staten Island +71% Brooklyn +70% -------------- Bronx +32% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even if @BOENYC releases "corrected" RCV totals tomorrow, this is still baffling. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @brigidbergin: It is truly astounding to hear Fred Umane, @BOENYC President and Commissioner GOP Manhattan, say that Board may or may… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @bobhardt: Elections 2.0: Sources tell me the Board of Elections is going back to the drawing board and running corrected ranked-choice… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, New York's Board of Elections published its final, revised Nov. 2020 election results on March 15, 2021. At the same rate, we wouldn't know the winner of NYC's Dem mayoral primary until November 1st, 2021. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If this debacle doesn't lead to a sweeping overhaul of New York City/State's antiquated & dangerously dysfunctional elections regime, not sure what will. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: https://t.co/VQP1XlrKON — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@saletan I'm pretty glad I've never said that in this race — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Honestly don't know what to believe atm. Considering @BOENYC's discrepancies, anyone who tells you they know for 100% sure how this is going to go down is lying. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Imagine the 2020 Iowa Caucus, except instead of a ritual w/ limited predictive value, what's at stake is the mayoralty of the nation's largest city. That's not far off from where we are. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot of people have been blowing the whistle on NY's election administration for years, but this is the most botched election results reporting by an official agency I've ever seen in the U.S. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now, it could be that the Election Night counts were wrong and today's count was right. Or, the reverse could be true. Or, both were off. No matter what, @BOENYC needs to get its act together, fast. https://t.co/h8nlMBHbS2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you believe there's any batch of 100k+ NYC votes in which Joycelyn Taylor and Shaun Donovan received more support than Kathryn Garcia or Maya Wiley, I've got a bridge over the East River to sell you. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If @BOENYC's unofficial tallies from *both* 6/23 and today are to be believed, these are how the 142,005 newly added 1st-choice votes broke down: Adams 12.3% Yang 11.6% Write-ins 11.4% Taylor 10.6% Donovan 9.3% Garcia 8.2% Wright 8.2% Wiley 6.8% Umm...something's very wrong. — PolitiTweet.org