Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is likely a bit above the absentee clip Garcia would need to overtake Adams’s lead, especially considering there are just fewer absentees in heavy pro-Adams areas. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A key to Dems' bid to save their razor-thin House majority: gerrymander their way to an 8-0 shutout in Maryland. by @Meagan_Flynn https://t.co/pDdbKl3vx0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That would essentially involve the commission's Dems throwing Malinowski (D) under the bus. I don't think it's necessarily the most likely outcome. However, both parties have some incentive to come to the negotiating table. For a blue state, there's a lot of uncertainty in NJ. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems obviously don't want to cede any ground. But they also might not want to risk a tie-breaker picking a map that gives the GOP two more seats. It's *possible* a deal could be made: a 9D-3R map that gives Kean (R) a winnable #NJ07 but shores up Kim (D) in #NJ03 (right). https://t.co/6CEP6rfWU4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Such a GOP plan would connect Kean's hometown of Westfield w/ the reddest parts of NW Jersey, including Hunterdon, Warren and Sussex counties. It would also give #NJ03 Kim (D) more of red Ocean Co. A side effect: it would shore up #NJ05 Gottheimer (D) and #NJ11 Sherrill (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, Kean (R) is running again in '22, and he and his allies got to appoint the entire GOP side of the redistricting commission. They could propose an 8D-4R map that dooms Malinowski by moving his seat #NJ07 from Biden +10 (left) to Trump +5, and targets Kim too (right). https://t.co/BmqVGPKdsM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) won the state's closest race in 2020, defeating state Sen. Tom Kean (R) by just 1.2%. The map above (right) would boost Malinowski by ten points by axing Hunterdon & Warren counties and adding the majority Black city of Plainfield. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems would probably be lucky to get away w/ a 10D-2R incumbent protection map. Such a plan (right) would shore up Reps. Andy Kim (#NJ03), Josh Gottheimer (#NJ05), Tom Malinowski (#NJ07), and Mikie Sherrill (#NJ11) by giving them all double-digit Biden seats. https://t.co/kLoRdyBGqL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, NJ uses a bipartisan commission for redistricting, w/ each party's insiders getting to pick six members and the state Supreme Court picking a 13th independent "tie-breaker." If the tie-breaker sides w/ a GOP-favored proposal (as in 2011), Dems could be at risk. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW JERSEY: has a 10D-2R House delegation after starting the last decade 6D-6R. Since 2016, Dems have picked up three suburban seats in the north (#NJ05, #NJ07 and #NJ11) and one in the south (#NJ03), confining Republicans to just #NJ02 and #NJ04. https://t.co/W0c1nVeh6U — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, today @BOENYC confirmed no more EDay votes to count, so cross one point of caution off the list. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@hunterw @baseballot I think most people know what my “extremely definitive declaration” would have been. It has not been used in this race (so far). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@hunterw @nealkwatra Odds swing from 95% back down under 50% all the time in sports, elections, etc. There's a reason it was never 100%. You're entitled to your commentary, I'm entitled to mine...guess we'll see who's right. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@hunterw @nealkwatra Lol...look who's the pundit now. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@hunterw Followers of mine know I’m not shy about making “definitive” Election Night calls, and I deliberately didn’t make one here. Also, out of curiosity, what’s your case for it being “advantage Adams?” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@hunterw Does saying "advantage Garcia" sound overly certain? I don't think so. Re: 20% in, it was pretty straightforward to project where the full EDay returns would end up w/ that amount in (and networks "call" races w/ <20% in all the time). The curveball was the final round of RCV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@hunterw Was I wrong to be overly confident at that point? Yes, obviously. But there was a pretty good reason I never got to >98% ("I've seen enough"). Garcia turned in an RCV performance for the history books, even as highly factionalized races go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Should clarify: the only *federal* avenue. Dems have had success in the past decade challenging GOP-drawn maps as *partisan* gerrymanders under state laws/constitutions in FL, NC and PA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For all of Brnovich's implications for vote denial cases, the consensus legal view seems to be it won't have much impact on Section 2's application in redistricting cases. That leaves open the only avenue for Dems to try to challenge GOP-drawn maps, particularly in the South. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a misleading statistic. Sure, by 44%-31% absentees come from assembly districts that voted for Adams on EDay. But 50% of all EDay votes were cast in pro-Adams districts to just 25% pro-Garcia. Absentees = big pro-Garcia skew. https://t.co/bgvfKCtNjW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @rickhasen: me to @jonward11 last year: "If New York were a Republican state, there would be protests in the streets over voter suppress… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Advantage: Garcia. But a few cautionary points: - still no updated @BOENYC precinct report of first choice votes, so unclear EDay is 100.00% counted - of 125k absentees, some will exhaust before final round - unclear how many affidavit ballots are outstanding. fair guess: 8-10k — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Incredibly, in this @BOENYC iteration we were just 348 votes away from getting a peek at how an Adams/Wiley final RCV round might have transpired. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But given what we know about the demographics of who votes absentee, I'd guess the 125k absentees skew even more pro-Garcia than EDay votes cast in the same precincts. As a result, you'd have to consider Garcia the favorite to overcome Adams's 14,755 vote lead. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty incredible to see Garcia edging out Wiley by just 347 votes (!) for the final RCV round in this latest (pre-absentee) count. https://t.co/pYO2w1weut — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So, the @BOENYC just reported 19,787 EDay votes that weren't reported on Election Night - many are likely the "missing Bronx votes." They break down: Adams 36% Wiley 20% Yang 14% Garcia 12% But, it's probably not enough for Adams w/ a 14,755 RCV lead heading into absentees. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: Some NY news: Ex-Rep @MaxRose4NY (D) announces he’s leaving his post at the Dept of Defense as its Covid task force winds… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ZackFinkNews: .@BOENYC says they WILL release updated counts today on Ranked Choice Voting in Mayoral Primary — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@bfishbfish I read the explainer on Monday, and while it’s obvious there are surges/drops correlated with demographics, it takes incomplete @BOENYC data as an article of faith and doesn’t even mention EDay precincts that aren’t fully reported. — PolitiTweet.org