Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Texas redistricting analysis incoming (even though it's out of alpha order in my state-by-state series)... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The truth is that redistricting is likely to have an infinitely bigger impact on TX’s political future than proposed restrictions on voting procedures (which may be born of ill intent but I see as having negligible partisan impact). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JudyWoodruff: .@amyewalter on persistent denials by former Pres Trump & others that Pres Biden won: "once you undermine faith in democr… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kirk_bado: MI's supreme court is upholding a constitutionally mandated deadline to have new lines by Sept. 17, when the crucial data wo… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the case of New Mexico, Dems' public rationale for gerrymandering #NM02 into a Biden seat could be to create a true Hispanic majority seat uniting Las Cruces w/ the Barelas/South Valley sections of Albuquerque. Stansbury's 24% margin on 6/1 means #NM01 has Dem votes to give. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If the map's main goal were compactness or proportionality, NM would probably end up with a clean-looking 2D-1R map like the one below. But it's tough to believe, in this high-stakes political environment, partisans won't press their advantage via gerrymandering. https://t.co/7DGMGbIeCF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If the map's main goal were compactness or proportionality, NM would probably end up with a clean-looking 2D-1R map like the one below. But it's tough to believe, in this high-stakes political environment, partisans won't press their advantage via gerrymandering. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If the main goal were compactness or proportionality, NM would probably end up with a clean-looking 2D-1R map like the one below. But it's tough to believe, in this high-stakes political environment, partisans won't seize full advantage. https://t.co/uCJx1NJBii — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW MEXICO: has a new advisory redistricting commission. But if Dems in Santa Fe choose to override it, they could replace the current 2D-1R map (left) w/ a 3D-0R sweep, flipping Rep. Yvette Herrell (R)'s #NM02 from Trump +12 to Biden +5 (right). https://t.co/vpSI1Tw4RV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@RTDSchapiro Absolutely not — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I began the general thinking Youngkin had a decent chance if he ran as a “check and balance” on Richmond and proactively created distance between himself and Trump. But so far, his message has been an incoherent mishmash. Still early, but pretty underwhelming so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I began the general thinking Youngkin had a decent chance if he ran as a “check and balance” for Richmond and proactively created distance between himself and Trump. But so far, his message has been an incoherent mishmash. Still early, but pretty underwhelming so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I began the general thinking Youngkin had a decent chance if he ran as a “check and balance” for Richmond and proactively created distance between himself and Trump. But so far, his message has been an incoherent mishmash. Still early, but pretty underwhelming so far. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An in-kind contribution to McAuliffe. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@SeanTrende Yes, but the question is: are there enough voters open to ranking Murkowski at all? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, the conventional wisdom that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) is favored just b/c she won a write-in campaign back in 2010 and Alaska has a new top-four system has never been that compelling. AK’s a red state, and GOP voters now view her as a Dem. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Recent Dem primary results in the Bronx... 2018 #NY14: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez +7 2020 #NY16: Jamaal Bowman +25 2021 mayoral: Eric Adams +29 Voters don't look at their choices through just one lens. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my math, had Garcia had received the same RCV bonus among absentee voters that she did among in-person voters, she would've won the final RCV round by 2,955 votes. The timing of the Yang/Garcia alliance might not have been decisive, but it mattered. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How did Adams win? Garcia didn't get as much of an RCV boost from absentee voters as in-person voters. By my math... In-person voters: Adams 32%-19% 1st choice, Garcia 46%-24% non-1st choice Absentee voters: Adams 24%-21% 1st choice, Garcia 40%-26% non-1st choice — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Adams still leads by 1 percentage point after another 118k ballots are counted Garcia only won the new ballots by just 1 per… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's been a wild ride, but I've finally seen enough: Eric Adams (D) is the apparent winner of the NYC Democratic mayoral primary, defeating Kathryn Garcia (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ndhapple: 3,699 absentee ballots apparently under some sort of dispute or another issues been raised -- so we're going to get about 98%… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If NY’s election administration were professionalized and moved into the 21st century like other states, most of the mistakes that have needlessly sowed public doubt and confusion - and given RCV a bad rap - would not be happening. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Four ways the NYC count has been "special," to say the least: - two weeks later, 130k+ votes not yet public - preliminary RCV tallied before all 1st choices tabulated - 130k+ "test" votes erroneously counted last week - partial absentee results leaked thru unofficial channels — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As we await new NYC numbers, lots of uncertainty. Were the leaked absentee totals from the most pro-Garcia areas of Manhattan (if so, good for Adams)? How will absentees' 2nd/3rd preferences differ from those of EDay votes? Lots of variables. Result likely to be *very* close. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Terrific story by @allymutnick (a must-follow) on a huge redistricting wild card: whether Republicans are willing/able to "crack" blue cities in red states - esp. Louisville, Nashville, Kansas City and Gary/Hammond. https://t.co/b4BoPpIeYS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NathanIWinston1 Didn't know about that Lorain Co., OH location — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@umichvoter I’m working on my “partisan fairness” scenario map w/ a double digit Biden GR/Kalamazoo district https://t.co/xIE5nt3BXb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@umichvoter bashing my Michigan maps — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @davidshor: Across most issues, the last 20 years has been "Republicans opinion stays roughly static while Dems move way to the left".… — PolitiTweet.org