Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ellzey (R) still up 53%-47% over Wright (R) w/ all early votes now reporting. But with only 20k ballots counted out of 493k registered voters in #TX06 (4.2%), there's still a long way to go here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @daveweigel: Source in #TX06 shares mysterious texts, going to Democrats, that remind them that Wright is the Trump candidate and call E… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind that if Ellzey (R) beats Wright (R) tonight, Dem/anti-Trump votes in an all-GOP runoff would likely be responsible for putting him over the top. We'll see. #TX06 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Jake Ellzey (R) off to early 53%-47% lead over Trump-endorsed Susan Wright (R) in #TX06 runoff. But, these are early ballots and Wright overperformed w/ EDay votes in the initial round. Still very early. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: Redistricting is always a whirlwind, but I don’t think a lot of people have fully priced in *how fast* this cycle will be due to… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also new for @CookPolitical subscribers: my in-depth look at the possibilities for Ohio's next congressional map. What can I say, it's a Buckeye type of week (h/t @alflinn). https://t.co/dhNH9PlcQe https://t.co/gKXfgVcZAV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New analysis up for @CookPolitical subscribers: a fascinating GOP proxy war is unfolding in #OH15 between Trump-endorsed Mike Carey (R) and Jeff LaRe (R), who's endorsed by former Rep. Steve Stivers (w/ intern @njordan5210). https://t.co/pDBnyKQXp3 https://t.co/ELgwFqBx3t — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New analysis up for @CookPolitical subscribers: blockbuster #OH11 primary between Nina Turner (D) and Shontel Brown (D) going down to the wire (w/ intern @zachdotwerner). https://t.co/EUbB4eRxP7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although Republicans are likely to gain seats in redistricting overall, many of the big states they control are already GOP gerrymanders (GA, OH, TX). The biggest question is how much state courts will constrain them in FL, NC and OH. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s true that blue states have ceded far more redistricting authority to commissions than red states. But in terms of change vs. 2011, Dems have an opportunity to redraw a big, previously court-drawn state (NY) and new seats at the table in previously GOP-drawn MI/PA/WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BruneElections I think we’re talking about separate issues; I’m not talking about Dems’ sorting disadvantage so much as the greater potency of gerrymandering when voters are increasingly hyper-sorted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another key point I'd expand on: partisan gerrymandering has become more effective, but not b/c of tech advancements or parties becoming more nefarious. The biggest culprits? The rise in partisan geographic sorting and declines in split-ticket voting & power of incumbency. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A key point by @kkondik: Rs would be far less dominant in this round of redistricting if commissions didn't exist. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: Rs control the drawing of 187 districts, Ds 75, with the remainder in states that are split, have commissions, or only have on… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Next Tuesday's all-GOP special election runoff in #TX06 will be an early gauge of the power of Trump's endorsement in his post-presidency. Our full analysis for @CookPolitical subscribers: https://t.co/4UN4lQNrcS https://t.co/A41ewdKjP6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As good a preview of #OH11's "battle for the soul of the Democratic party" as you'll read, by @HotlineJosh. https://t.co/oVaym9bE77 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: https://t.co/eA1gYXr5kz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'll allow it — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to Dems' overexposure (10D-2R) and NJ's tiebreaker system, there's a real chance Rs end up *gaining* 1-2 seats in New Jersey redistricting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @databyler: tough things about polls being off -- in 3/4 of the last elections, they've overestimated Dems. Not wonderful for media tr… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Yet another reason to subscribe to @CookPolitical - @JessicaTaylor writes a tour de force on the multiple cross-currents im… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @levinecarrie: Experts say independent redistricting commissions are a better way to handle redrawing political maps. But outside forces… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, in this possible GOP scenario, the college town of Denton is thrown in w/ Amarillo in #TX13 to make suburban DFW districts redder. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, Dems could argue that this would severely weaken an existing Hispanic district, #TX34. But Rs could also argue South TX Hispanics are no longer as cohesive a group, given their large pro-Trump swing. Bottom line: no matter what map Rs draw, expect years of litigation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This kind of South Texas makeover might actually win support from neighboring #TX15 Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D), who shockingly came within three points of losing in 2020 and would get a much safer RGV seat in the above scenario. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now you might ask: how would Republicans net two seats if they draw a new *Dem* seat in Austin? In the hypothetical above, they would convert retiring Rep. Filemon Vela's (D) #TX34 in the Rio Grande Valley from Biden +4 to Trump +10, while keeping it 70% Hispanic (!). https://t.co/JYc7wY6GwW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the hypothetical 25R-13D Republican gerrymander below, all 25 R seats would have voted for Trump by 10+ points in 2020, and 24/25 would have voted for Trump by 15+ points - locking in GOP dominance for the next decade despite TX's increasing competitiveness. https://t.co/2eeLamx1uO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Drawing a new 75%+ Biden "vote sink" district in Austin (below) - as well as packing Dem voters into Rep. Lizzie Fletcher's (D) #TX07 in Houston and Rep. Colin Allred's (D) #TX32 in Dallas - could resolve the GOP's immediate problems all around the state. https://t.co/Y58EMZ0jxJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, the TX delegation is 23R-13D. But because Rs currently have the Austin metro area cracked seven ways (below), there are three R incumbents (Roy, Carter, McCaul) sitting in fast-growing Austin-area districts that are unsustainably trending left. https://t.co/8shPO1Iw3i — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

TEXAS: Republicans face a redistricting dilemma. They want to win both the state's new seats, but also need to shore up all *nine* of their incumbents who sit in districts where Biden took 47%+. The likely solution? Rs draw a new *Democratic* district in Austin. Here's why... https://t.co/0g4qcG0P4W — PolitiTweet.org