Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A great primer on why everyone should approach today's new Census data with caution, by @hansilowang. https://t.co/fxXt5R4DV5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Need to know how the Census & redistricting will reshape the future of politics? I'll be offering a limited number of customized briefings to groups & conferences. Make sure to get in touch: https://t.co/5v7r0zBlP9 https://t.co/J6kS3sjhFW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's the scorecard @CookPolitical will be updating throughout 2021-2 as new maps are drawn. Be sure to subscribe for detailed analysis & scenario maps in each state all cycle long. https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP https://t.co/eR45hnrtWo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's Census data day! Here's @CookPolitical's breakdown of which party controls the redistricting process where. Our current outlook: a GOP gain of 0-7 House seats from redistricting alone, w/ a high initial degree of uncertainty. https://t.co/usPQ9wYmHL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @KaleighRogers: Do you have a loved one who hasn't gotten the shot, but also isn't an anti-vax conspiracy theorist? Start here: https://… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On the eve of Census data release, two themes emerging: 1) Historic geographic polarization & straight-ticket voting makes district maps pretty much existential for parties 2) *State* supreme courts poised to be more important than ever when it comes to gerrymandering claims — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Favor to crowd-source: if any number-crunchers are able to quickly aggregate block-level legacy data on 1) total population and 2) race/ethnicity to the county level tomorrow, I'll give you full credit here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kirk_bado: "So the Census redistricting data is coming out Thursday which is earlier than they said but months later than normal. But h… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The first thing I'll be watching when detailed Census data arrives on Thursday: whether minority counts are far lower than estimates suggested. 2020 *estimates* of the U.S. resident population: White: 59.8% Hispanic: 18.6% Black: 12.5% Asian/Other: 9.1% Actual 2020 Census: ?? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wisconsin is Dems' redistricting problem in a nutshell. Even though WI is evenly divided, Rs could easily win 6/8 seats in 2022 b/c Dem voters are so clustered in Madison & Milwaukee. Trump carried 6/8 districts while losing WI in 2020...and not really b/c of gerrymandering. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big setback for House Dems in #WI03. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEWS: Rep. Ron Kind (D) will announce his retirement Tuesday from #WI03, a swing seat that Trump carried twice This is a… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Redistricting kicks off this week. Are you prepared? @CookPolitical subscribers get our in-depth analysis & maps of every state, updated w/ all the latest developments as they unfold. Don't miss out: https://t.co/xxt8l5jm0O https://t.co/fTCLTHFZU9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In my example above, Dems would have a shot at converting the current 19D-8R delegation to 23D-3R, but at the cost of Dem incumbents taking on lots of unfamiliar turf. Also in the above map: #NY16 Jamaal Bowman, a Justice Dem, would absorb red parts of Orange Co. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Assuming NY Dems axe an Upstate GOP district and no NYC Dem incumbents retire, Downstate districts will need to expand north. This could mean, for example, AOC's #NY14 expanding into Westchester or Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney's #NY18 stretching west to Ithaca (below). https://t.co/NgwMEGestS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My in-depth redistricting preview of Pennsylvania, where one consultant described the political climate in Harrisburg as "Fallujah," is now live for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/LLLlKavToC https://t.co/z2KqispPg6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Congrats to the team at @FiveThirtyEight on their very cool new tracker - as usual, a spectacular graphical reference. Be sure to bookmark for the months ahead. 👍https://t.co/mdi9twEm5h — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This week, the Census Bureau will release the granular-level data needed for redistricting - officially kicking off the gerrymandering wars that neither the Supreme Court nor Congress have done anything to rein in. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @wildstein: 🚨🚨🚨 Breaking: The New Jersey Supreme Court has selected Democrat John Wallace as the tiebreaker for the Congressional Redist… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One more thing: I'm not so sure the popular, pro-impeachment Katko (R) would be doomed in a super-blue Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica seat like #NY22 in the second scenario above. The first scenario would at least give Dems a good shot in whichever Syracuse seat Katko *doesn't* run in. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Either way, Reps. Elise Stefanik (R) #NY21 and Claudia Tenney (R) #NY22 would have little choice but to run against each other in a North Country GOP vote sink to stay in Congress, and Stefanik would be heavily favored. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Second: Dems could opt for a slightly more conservative 22D-4R plan like the example below, w/ one super-blue Syracuse-Ithaca-Utica vote sink (#NY22 here). This plan wouldn't dislocate a single Dem incumbent - in fact, every Dem incumbent would get a few points safer. https://t.co/f2pkljJPSG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If no NYC Dem agrees to retire, Dems would need to push their incumbents further north into Upstate (b/c NY is losing a seat and everyone needs to expand). Which brings us to the second scenario... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, a potential drawback for Dems: to make this approach work, they might have to collapse two of their own NYC seats (either #NY10 Nadler, 73, or #NY12 Maloney, 75, would probably need to retire) and a new Upstate Dem seat would be created (#NY12). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this scenario, Dems' approach to #NY24 Katko is a bit of a bank shot. The goal would be to dislodge Katko from his Syracuse base enough to make him vulnerable in a primary from the right, but keep #NY24 blue enough that Dems could win it in the general. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

First: the maximally aggressive play would be to try to convert the current 19D-8R map to 23D-3R. The example below eliminates Reed's #NY23 and flips #NY01 Zeldin, #NY11 Malliotakis and #NY22 Tenney from Trump to Biden 10+ districts. https://t.co/dRLqzKMQZy — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW YORK: given what's happening elsewhere in redistricting, it's tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state's new commission). I basically see two likely scenarios for Dems in NY. A brief thread... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW YORK: given what's happening elsewhere in redistricting, it's tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state's new commission). I basically see two likely options for Dems in NY. A brief thread... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nprpolitics: Redistricting data from the 2020 census will be released on Aug. 12, the Census Bureau says, after months of delays caused… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Available to @CookPolitical subscribers tomorrow: an in-depth look at the redistricting state of play in Pennsylvania, where one insider likened the current political climate in Harrisburg to "Fallujah." — PolitiTweet.org