Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino #NY02, Elise Stefanik #NY21 and Chris Jacobs #NY23. Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state. In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right). https://t.co/88kGIk9tMj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We all owe a debt of gratitude to election workers who tirelessly & successfully pulled off an election w/ record-shattering turnout amid unprecedented challenges. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, there are two reasons GA Rs might *not* pursue a map this aggressive: 1) the certainty of a VRA lawsuit 2) the risk it'd backfire in the ATL burbs in a few years I still view a safer 9R-5D map (below) that merges #GA06 McBath & #GA07 Bourdeaux as the likelier scenario. https://t.co/RFNLcykPB3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

GEORGIA: weak census numbers in southwest GA have Dems worried Rs could attempt a 10R-4D gerrymander that threatens Reps. Sanford Bishop (D) #GA02, Lucy McBath (D) #GA06 & Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) #GA07. In below hypothetical, 10/14 districts would've voted Trump by 14%+ in '20. https://t.co/8bk5QMcb0M — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: One thing worth keeping in mind amid all the political analysis of the 2020 census: the 2020 election. Despite all the favor… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty amazing stat, per Census: just 12 of the 53 current members of the Congressional Black Caucus represent districts that are 50%+ Black. The median CBC member now represents a district that's just 38.1% Black. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@andysere But then Pendleton is kind of an ugly tentacle — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ILLINOIS: weak census numbers Downstate could help Dems gerrymander even more aggressively. In this 14D-3R example, #IL17 stretches from Macomb (WIU) to DeKalb (NIU) and goes from Trump +2 to Biden +7. https://t.co/c9ryIw6nA4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

On the other hand, Iowa Republicans would prefer something more similar to the current map, with four Trump districts and zero Biden districts (this hypothetical below has a much larger population variance of 5,478). https://t.co/riUNVAhx7J — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This hypothetical Iowa map, w/ two comfortable Biden districts (#IA01 and #IA03) and a population variance of just 531 people, would be Dems' dream come true. But IA's GOP legislature has veto power, so I expect to see this map enacted when hogs fly. https://t.co/zllkQHpnLa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CoryMcCartan Wow. That's gonna be tough to beat. And that #IA03 is pretty damn compact! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, WV redistricting doesn't look that difficult to accomplish. Both of these districts would be just 1,057 people off the target population - less than half the 2010 deviation. https://t.co/KPrmdcTG5d — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Mappers: start your engines. Incredible work by @davesredist. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@woewoeisme Uses wrong population base. 2020 Census ideal Iowa district population: 797,592 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PatrickRuffini: NEW from @EchelonInsights: Demographic Engine, a system that synthesizes Census and voter file data to deliver, for the… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, here's a map w/ 2020 populations if you want to get out your pen, paper and calculator. Winner gets a year's free subscription to @CookPolitical w/ @amyewalter. https://t.co/N0jqpJJ9ES — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Some positive news for #IA03 Rep. Cindy Axne (D): left-trending Polk (Des Moines) & Dallas counties now have enough people for 74% of a congressional district, up from 65% in 2010. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ready to launch my decennial Iowa redistricting challenge. Here's how it works... 1) in next 24 hrs, reply w/ a map of four contiguous districts built out of whole counties 2) the map w/ the lowest deviation between the most/least populous districts (using 2020 Census data) wins — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Translation: putting this out here now so we can point to it in court later when we get sued by Dems for drawing maps that just happen to be GOP-friendly. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: if you write 2,500+ words about how GOP could net 11-16 House seats by gerrymandering TX, FL, GA, NC (unlikely) without *once* mentioning Dem prospects of gerrymandering NY, IL, MD… …you’re not covering redistricting objectively or accurately. https://t.co/OBOdkBDojM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@M_McAdams Apparently you haven’t read my write ups of Maryland, Illinois or other states Democrats have aggressively gerrymandered. Or you weren’t watching when I went on TV today and said NY Dems could draw the most brazen gerrymander of the cycle. But sure, pick on one sentence. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: Rs are likely to gain at least one seat in NC, and perhaps two. But because redistricting litigation is an Olympic sport in NC, there's no such thing as a well-settled map. The 2022 map will be NC's 5th different congressional plan in seven election cycles (!). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If courts were to strike down a GOP gerrymander, a new map might instead look something like the one this: 8R-5D, with one highly competitive district (#NC08 in the example below). https://t.co/g7x4CeZdan — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The safest bet in all of this? A Democratic lawsuit. But, Dems are less confident they can rely on state courts to strike down whatever the GOP draws after Paul Newby (R) defeated Cheri Beasley (D) by 412 votes for chief justice last fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It would be self-defeating for Rs to dismantle the new blue #NC02, given recent heavy Dem vote growth in Wake Co. But, they could easily merge #NC04 Rep. David Price (D) and #NC06 Rep. Kathy Manning (D) into one seat, for a 10R-4D map overall (below). https://t.co/ROCPoxcpLL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NC is gaining a 14th seat in 2022, and the GOP controls the process b/c Gov. Roy Cooper (D) lacks veto power over maps. Republicans may figure they have little to lose by passing another gerrymander: after all, the worst that can happen is courts strike it down again. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NORTH CAROLINA: in 2020, Dems scored a huge coup when a state court struck down the GOP's 10R-3D gerrymander and approved a new 8R-5D map (below). But now, Dems' gains are in jeopardy. A thread... https://t.co/5OKtxnE3D6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ratemyskyperoom Ask and you shall receive. https://t.co/MKpoq14JxN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Full analysis of yesterday's Census results now up for @CookPolitical subscribers: why Democrats have a lot of reasons to like the new numbers. https://t.co/ZKzm0pLHEU https://t.co/IkGvLrLaOS — PolitiTweet.org