Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just finished researching & writing my 2,400 word preview of Texas redistricting for @CookPolitical - and the findings might surprise a lot of people. Stay tuned. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now available for @CookPolitical subscribers: our in-depth analysis of redistricting in South Carolina & Tennessee. Next week: Texas. https://t.co/xxt8l5jm0O https://t.co/ouGnRMohDe — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I wouldn't be surprised if the LSA proposes something that splits the baby between those two approaches (example below). https://t.co/Esluo7Zhlb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It continues to be nuts that the Supreme Court requires congressional districts to be off my no more than a person in most states when the underlying data is so unreliable at the granular level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I know this is about to change, but the amount of attention new state voting laws have received relative to redistricting so far this year is roughly inverse to their likely impact on 2022 election outcomes (hint: redistricting is a much bigger deal). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's a side-by-side of the pro-GOP map (four Trump districts) versus the map Iowa Dems would prefer (two Trump districts, two Biden districts). The nonpartisan LSA is set to unveil its first proposal on Sept. 16. https://t.co/nsVKyELJMV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest change vs. the current map in this scenario: the fastest Dem-trending county in the state, Dallas (western Des Moines suburbs), would move from the competitive #IA03 to the safe GOP #IA04. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Per GOP source, Iowa Republicans would like the map below: least changes, w/ the state's four major Dem vote centers (Des Moines, Iowa City, Cedar Rapids and Ames) kept separate in four Trump-won districts. We'll see. https://t.co/MNIN10XUiC — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @PoliticsReid: Virginia set up a redistricting commission to take the partisanship out of an inherently partisan process. The commission… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don't miss our full analysis of redistricting in Ohio (and every other state). Subscribe to @CookPolitical today: https://t.co/dhNH9PlcQe https://t.co/lWv9EEOIqX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Long story short: the more aggressive Rs get, the higher the chance their plan backfires in court. They could reduce their risk by, say, sacrificing Rep. Steve Chabot (R) to make #OH01 a safe blue Cincinnati seat. There are huge stakes & a wide range of possible outcomes here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If a court were drawing a neutral plan , it might result in a compact map w/ a more modest 9R-6D breakdown - perhaps w/ new Dem opportunities in Cincinnati, the Columbus burbs and maybe Akron/Canton - even as Youngstown's #OH13 turns red (below). https://t.co/3qs5mknhWF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, this approach could backfire: new reform also mandates maps "must not unduly favor or disfavor a party or incumbents," and the fairly moderate Ohio Supreme Court could strike such a lopsided GOP gerrymander down as a brazen violation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If there's a deadlock or Rs simply don't cooperate, Rs could try to pass an *even more* aggressive gerrymander that complies w/ the new county split criteria and packs Dem voters into Cleveland & Columbus for a 13R-2D (!) split (below). https://t.co/HJNeaXZJIh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The reform requires maps keep more cities/counties whole and high bipartisan support to pass a new map. However, if the legislature (and a backup panel) fail to agree, Republicans can pass a map along party lines that's valid for four years only. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

OHIO: has arguably been the most effective GOP gerrymander of the 2010s. For an entire decade, it's been a 12R-4D rout (below). Zero seats have changed hands. But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread... https://t.co/tLGywjoOHI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @databyler: It is possible that Trump's voters don't show up when he's not on the ballot, and that hurts him in 2022 Also worth asking… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: If this is true it's a big recruitment coup for House Dems The DCCC has tried for years to get state Assemblyman Rudy Sal… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn @CoryMcCartan @CookPolitical @amyewalter it’s not even as weird looking as I’d imagine if you told me 5 people — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: @CoryMcCartan wins my decennial Iowa redistricting challenge and a year's subscription to the @CookPolitical Report w/ @amyewalter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn The theory I've heard regarding #NY24 is to make it red enough that Katko might lose a primary but blue enough that Dems could beat a non-Katko R in a general. Alternatively, Ithaca could be traded to #NY24 to make both #NY22 and #NY24 ~Biden +8. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn These are estimates based on PVI changes b/c 2020 results aren't loaded into DRA yet, but... #NY14 Biden +40 #NY16 Biden +31 #NY17 Biden +17 And FWIW... #NY01 Biden +10 #NY11 Biden +10 #NY18 Biden +11 #NY19 Biden +9 #NY20 Biden +13 #NY22 Biden +15 #NY24 Biden +2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, the only way a Dem gerrymander of Upstate NY would work would be for #NY14 AOC, #NY16 Bowman and #NY17 Jones to absorb heavily GOP parts of Westchester, Rockland, Orange, Putnam and Dutchess counties (while still keeping overwhelmingly safe Dem seats). We’ll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because NY is losing a seat. After an Upstate district is axed, ~0.3 of a Downstate seat will need to move north to absorb Upstate turf. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot of newer members who have never gone through redistricting are in for a rude awakening (in this case, if no NYC Dems retire, seats like #NY16 will need to push north for population). https://t.co/Xpnf0DbkP3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Excellent look at possible changes to ME CD’s (and great pic of ⁦@ColbyCollege⁩ ). Bottom line: even moving 23K 1st CD resi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The five districts with biggest *increases* in white share of the population, 2010-2020: 1. #CA34 Gomez (D), 9% to 13% 2. #NY07 Velazquez (D), 28% to 31% 3. #PA03 Evans (D), 29% to 32% 4. #NY13 Espaillat (D), 12% to 15% 5. #NY08 Jeffries (D), 22% to 24% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The five districts with biggest declines in white share of the population, 2010-2020: 1. #TX03 Taylor (R), 62% to 50% 2. #GA07 Bourdeaux (D), 50% to 38% 3. #FL23 Wasserman Schultz (D), 49% to 37% 4. #MD02 Ruppersberger (D), 55% to 43% 5. #FL09 Soto (D), 49% to 37% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only genuinely competitive seat on this map would be Rep. John Katko (R)'s #NY24, who has already proven he can win in a really blue seat. The thinking here is that he might lose a primary on his right, in which case the new seat would be winnable for a Dem in a general. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s #NY11 would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester. https://t.co/WpdcYWAi3J — PolitiTweet.org