Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: as expected, Oregon Dems & GOP release competing congressional map proposals. Per @FiveThirtyEight, Dem plan (left) would be functionally 5D-1R. GOP plan (right) would be 2D-1R, with three highly competitive districts. Dems have the upper hand here. We'll see. https://t.co/pyBnDJF6d5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For our full analysis of PA (and every state), be sure to log in/subscribe to @CookPolitical. https://t.co/xq7NAvdEs6 https://t.co/Ov73MfGUM8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm not sure either party would take this deal, and one consultant described the current atmosphere in Harrisburg as "Fallujah." So, bottom line: the odds favor another court-drawn map, perhaps w/ a GOP seat eliminated but a few Dem seats becoming even more competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A bipartisan deal is a longshot, but in the hypothetical below, Lamb (D)'s #PA17 would be eliminated - and all R incumbents protected - in exchange for shoring up #PA07 Wild (D) w/ Reading & #PA08 Cartwright (D) w/ all of Monroe Co. & Easton. https://t.co/DHfVU8yUMc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In theory, there's some incentive for both parties to negotiate a deal. Dems badly want to shore up Wild & Cartwright in the east, while Rs want to protect all their own incumbents & win Lamb's open #PA17 in the west. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The upshot in this scenario is that a few vulnerable Dem seats, #PA07 Wild (D), #PA08 Cartwright (D) & #PA17 Lamb (D) would have little choice but to expand into heavily R turf. That could end up giving Rs the edge, considering Ds held all three seats by <5% in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If the PA Supreme Court draws the 2022 map, I think it's likely they'd merge two GOP seats in slow-growing central PA - possibly #PA09 Rep. Dan Meuser (R) and #PA12 Rep. Fred Keller (R), as shown below. On the surface, sounds great for Dems. BUT... https://t.co/PJIOx3bkHb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2018, the Dem majority on the PA Supreme Court struck down the previous GOP gerrymander, converting a 13R-5D breakdown in 2012, 2014 and 2016 to the current 9D-9R tie. Dems picked up #PA05, #PA06, #PA07 and #PA17 - gains that account for 100% of their current House margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

PENNSYLVANIA: is losing one of its 18 seats, and w/ a 9D-9R tie on the current map (below), one party must draw the short straw. With control split between the GOP legislature and Dem governor, it's likely the state supreme court will end up drawing the map again. A thread... https://t.co/CFukZ6N6iG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder that we have no idea what 2022 voters will be basing their decisions on this far out. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For our full analysis of Oregon (and every other state), be sure to subscribe to @CookPolitical. https://t.co/xxt8l5jm0O https://t.co/h2oTqOKCc6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This raises the prospect of a deal: in the map below, DeFazio (D) & Schrader (D) would both get shored up by a few points and the new #OR06 would be a "fair fight" district straddling the Cascades (in this version, it would've been Trump +1 in '16 and Biden +7 in '20). https://t.co/KFB129wk1B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In addition, Dems badly want to shore up #OR04 and #OR05, which nearly voted for Trump in '16, in the event Reps. Peter DeFazio (D) and/or Kurt Schrader (D) leave in the next decade or face a pro-GOP election cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Per sources, the prevailing Dem thinking is that the new #OR06 should be awarded to the fastest-growing areas of the state: perhaps in the triangle of Bend (which has seen explosive growth and flipped from Trump '16 to Biden '20), the Portland suburbs and Salem. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In addition, Oregon has a rare tradition of bipartisan cooperation on maps. Earlier this year, Speaker Tina Kotek (D) struck a deal to give Rs equal power on the state house redistricting committee, though many Ds insist they can still ultimately pass a map w/o GOP support. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems have held a 4-1 seat lead since 1996, and control the redistricting trifecta. But, they also have a geography problem: Oregon's Dems are so clustered in Portland that if you were to draw a map based on compactness alone (below), Rs might have a shot at winning 3/6 seats. https://t.co/ibpFiRyqYp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

OREGON: is gaining a sixth district in 2022, which means all five current districts below will need to shed 117k+ residents to make way for #OR06. A quick thread... https://t.co/X7LenmxJHu — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A closer-up view of Chicagoland in the hypothetical above. #IL14 Underwood (D) would go from Biden +2 to Biden +14 (#IL11 Foster (D) also Biden +14). https://t.co/89HLwXJxJg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If IL Dems' congressional map looks anything like their legislative maps, here's a guess of what to expect: - 13D-5R (left) to 14D-3R (right) w/ Kinzinger axed - #IL13 Davis (R) from Trump +3 to Biden +18 - #IL17 from Trump +2 to Biden +8 - all other Dem seats Biden +14 or more https://t.co/NljkP3YmT6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @AllieMcCandless: 25 years ago, yesterday: https://t.co/bC19uigiAo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In NJ, I've heard rumors strong Asian growth in Central Jersey could lead to a push for a new influence district. In the hypothetical below, Rep. Andy Kim (D)'s #NJ03 would venture north to West Windsor & Edison and jump from 5% to 25% Asian. https://t.co/aUea9vqYIn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is absolutely not something the commission's Republicans would agree to. But, I was pretty surprised by the magnitude of Latino growth in the resort counties in the census. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, the Colorado Latino advocacy group CLARRO just proposed a map that would create a new 40% Latino opportunity seat north of Denver (#CO08) and boost the Latino share in #CO03 to 28% (Biden +1), endangering Rep. Lauren Boebert (R). We'll see. https://t.co/wIRTLPH5wB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A cool interview with @CoryMcCartan, the winner of my decennial Iowa redistricting challenge. https://t.co/NpJXMXxv8I — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you compare precinct-level results from the 80s/90s to 2016/2020, virtually every state has seen a big increase in geographic polarization - mostly (but not exclusively) widening urban/rural splits. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ProfNickStephan Laughably, Abrams and Fiorina cited party reg data in PA to try to debunk Bishop. Hopefully 2016 and 2020 have made clear how meaningless party reg data is. Fact is, in 2016 61% of voters lived in landslide counties, up from 38% in 1992. In 2020, 58%. Sorting is irrefutable. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let’s say you want to draw your party a bunch of safe (+10%?) seats. Back in the 1980s, when voters weren’t nearly as geo-sorted, you might have had to resort to a lot of contortions. Today, you can draw gerrymanders that are way more efficient, effective *and* cleaner-looking. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, I’ve seen enough. The idea that geographic sorting in the last few decades *hasn’t* had a profound effect on gerrymandering is one of the most stunningly wrong takes I’ve heard from an academic (fortunately, the vast majority of the literature gets this right). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectProject Thanks for your thoughtful counter-argument (aka your CV) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Then you're in the extreme minority of mapmakers. Imagine a state where every precinct voted the same: it would be impossible to gerrymander. The more polarized a state is, the more effective gerrymandering can be. — PolitiTweet.org