Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The main constraint for TX Republicans: right now, *nine* of their 23 incumbents represent seats where Biden got 47% or more. Under the hypothetical above, all of those seats would move to Trump +15 or more. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

TEXAS: it's redistricting week. Here's my rough expectation for the GOP's congressional map: - 25R-13D (up from 23R-13D now) - a new hyper-blue Austin seat - one blue seat in the RGV made a lot redder - all 23 R incumbents shored up - Fletcher & Allred packed w/ Ds We'll see. https://t.co/1gqlTLBLpA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is where Youngkin’s blown it. McAuliffe can hammer him on being anti-mandate all day long. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@mattdegroot Sorry. Given your HOA's lengthy regulations and bylaws, I'm at a loss to make a confident projection. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I do think 26R-12D would be venturing into potential dummymander territory. For all the reasons I outlined in this thread from July, I think 25R-13D is more likely. https://t.co/4YGjubrgWG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If this TX state senate draft is any indication, Republicans are going to be moderately aggressive w/ the congressional map (question is 25R-13D or 26R-12D?) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looking forward to joining @CNN @smerconish to talk redistricting & the midterms at 9:25am. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Just how prescient is VA GOV for what’s to come in midterms? It was a good preview of disastrous 2018 for R’s and for a who… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

True junkies own the 2012 book (and truly hardcore @CookPolitical nerds own @amyewalter’s 2002 book). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @sgrubermiller: Iowa's proposed congressional maps would take a GOP-held district and make it safe for Democrats. That could be a tough… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Is it still possible to get Dems to statewide parity? Yes. But the commission would need to make choices that actively compensate for Dems' geographic disadvantage, perhaps by creating a new Dem seat in West Michigan (#MI03 in the example below). https://t.co/o48S5uXr14 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The basic geography dilemma for MI Dems: if you preserve two Black majority districts in Detroit and keep Ann Arbor basically intact (#MI11, #MI13 and #MI12 in the hypothetical below), you've just exhausted a ton of Biden votes and the rest of the state is Trump +9. https://t.co/rrx5iFmegf — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Worth noting that even with the proposed GOP changes (which are unlikely to pass), Biden still would have won #NE02 by a few points in 2020. Omaha's trended that blue. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've deleted a previous tweet that gave the impression the MI commission had released an official draft, when in fact it was more a snapshot of their deliberations. Nonetheless, the ease w/ which you can arrive at an 8R-5D or 9R-4D map there illustrates MI Dems' challenges. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @iansandlerbowen: A bit of clarification on this. The map I have put out is not an official map by the Commission, but rather is a snaps… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, this is extremely preliminary - and wouldn't be something the commission's Dems would go for (to pass, maps need 7 votes on the 13-member commission including some cross-party support). We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow: the new Michigan commission's initial draft is out, and it would be disastrous for Dems, converting the current 7D-7R map into 8R-5D or possibly even 9R-4D in a state Biden carried (h/t @iansandlerbowen). https://t.co/D6EHsNEh6b — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Whether due to primaries, retirements or redistricting, I'd be surprised if four of the ten Republicans who voted to impeach Trump earlier this year are back in Congress in 2023. https://t.co/Z4Q1ZYwCGo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2021, the likeliest path to a Republican win in Virginia looks a lot more like Larry Hogan's path in MD (check and balance) than George Allen's 1993 path in VA (fire up GOP base). Either Youngkin's camp doesn't grasp this - or he's been unwilling to move further to middle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sometimes candidates self-sabotage b/c they're too afraid to tick off their base. In this case, I'm willing to bet Youngkin loses more swing votes by being anti-mandate than he would lose from the Trump base if he were pro-mandate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just calculated: under the GOP plan, Trump's 2020 margin in #ME02 drops from 7.5 pts to 6.7 pts. Under the Dem plan, it drops to 5.7 pts. Impressively, both plans only deviate by a single resident while keeping towns whole. Maybe they should just flip a coin? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest surprise in redistricting so far: the number of maps that look like they were drawn using MS Paint or ancient parchment (come on, people). https://t.co/ZppROTEKyl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It appears the biggest difference between the Dem and GOP Maine proposals is whether Waterville is in #ME01 or #ME02. Dems would like it to be in #ME02 to help Rep. Jared Golden (D), but it's not a huge difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Exactly. And, the reason NY is the biggest potential redistricting weapon for either party is that it was drawn by a court last time (now Dems control). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two critical caveats here: 1) There's *lots* of uncertainty in many states due to new commissions & inevitable court challenges 2) Rs are poised to shore up many seats they already hold, reducing Dems' offensive opportunities — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: @CookPolitical's state-by-state estimates now show Rs netting just 1-2 House seats from redistricting alone, down from 3-4 a few months ago. The outlook for Dems has slightly improved in IN, NJ & NY. https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP https://t.co/Hcdl0Vvdsh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big shoutout to @davesredist, which has taken the app to the next level and already changed the game for mappers/analysts this cycle. Thanks for the amazing work (and give them a follow). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a pretty creative definition of proportionality... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Correction: deviation of 99 residents (misdrew a tiny corner of Henry Co. in DRA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Iowa LSA's first congressional draft, left (vs. the current map, right): #IA01: Biden +8.7 (Trump +3.4) #IA02: Trump +10.8 (Trump +4.0) #IA03: Biden +0.2 (Trump +0.2) #IA04: Trump +31.5 (Trump +27.0) Difference between most/least populous districts: 63 residents. https://t.co/Onvi5c4pyA — PolitiTweet.org