Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thank you @RedistrictNet for tracking the latest developments from state to state. Worth a follow. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The point: the current GOP-drawn AL map is gerrymandered *against* Black voters more than *for* them. The same is true of maps in LA, SC and likely elsewhere. And unlike past decades, the goals of compactness and racial fairness in redistricting aren't always at odds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Well we’ve got over 5k votes, and by 2-to-1, people think the right map is more compact than the current map (left). And - surprise! - right is also the map with two 50%+ Black districts (#AL02 and #AL07), a more equitable breakdown in a 27% Black state. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let's take a vote: which Alabama map is more compact? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pop quiz: which map is more compact, left or right? You might be surprised by which map features two districts that are >50% Black by voting age population, and which map (the current GOP-drawn plan) only features one. https://t.co/EOIakckqeT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jmartNYT: “Ten years ago, Marc Elias IDed me as the only CBC member advocating for a lower Black percentage in my district,” Scott says… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: New for subscribers: @Redistrict's West Virginia redistricting preview is live. West Virginia is losing a seat as a res… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans view this potential lawsuit as a backdoor attempt by Eric Holder, Marc Elias etc. to draw an additional Dem seat - and they're not wrong! - but I'll be interested to see whether federal judges apply the same standard in SC that they've applied in NC, VA et. al. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It would be possible to draw a much more compact #SC06 (below) anchored by Columbia, Orangeburg and Sumter that's still over 50% Black - but doesn't include Charleston. The byproduct? A more compact, competitive #SC01 (below) that *might* be a second Black opportunity. https://t.co/s3hs5NxpDF — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It would be possible to draw a much more compact #SC06 (below) anchored by Columbia, Orangeburg and Sumter that's still over 50% Black - but doesn't include Charleston. The byproduct? A more compact, competitive #SC01 (below) that *might* be a second Black opportuniity. https://t.co/frpS7DJIcc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, Dems - including Clyburn - have come to view #SC06 as a racial gerrymander that overpacks Blacks to boost surrounding Rs. Dems are likely to sue in federal court to unpack #SC06, following successful suits to unpack CDs in other Fourth Circuit states (NC, VA). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the example above, #SC01 would move from Trump +6 in 2020 to Trump +9. That's possible in large part b/c Mace's fast-growing district needs to shed 88k residents and Clyburn's depopulating #SC06 needs to gain 85k residents. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

SOUTH CAROLINA: Republicans hold a 6R-1D lead (left) and will seek to shore up new #SC01 Rep. Nancy Mace (R) by stuffing Dem precincts in the Charleston area into Rep. Jim Clyburn (D)'s Black majority #SC06 (example, right). But there's a potential plot twist... https://t.co/9px0G7Krd4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RHODE ISLAND: kept both its seats in the 2020 census, defying estimates and effectively saving Dems one seat. In fact, RI Dems could accomplish redistricting by moving just 5,618 Providence residents from #RI01 to #RI02 (below, right). Little change here. https://t.co/jsMQjlgUFL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

TL;DR in Oregon: Republicans could walk out to prevent a quorum, blocking the 5D-1R gerrymander and likely forcing state Supreme Court to redraw the congressional map. But, by doing so they could risk a worse *legislative* map drawn by the Dem SOS. We’ll see what they decide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ShaneGoldmacher: This is crazy, via @danarubinstein https://t.co/9nzkVlvFUb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: Dems adjourned for the day and Rs threatening a walkout to prevent a quorum. Rapidly getting messy. https://t.co/wuo6COw16M — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems look poised to pass a 5D-1R gerrymander in Oregon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, a big factor in this shift: over time, non-Black voters in the metro South (and beyond) have become more open to voting for Black candidates. Today, just 18 of the House's 53 @TheBlackCaucus members represent seats where Blacks are over 50% of the voting age population. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"I was never comfortable with all the packing," said Rep. Alma Adams (D), whose previous snakelike #NC12 (below) was struck down by courts in 2016. "I think it limits the participation we can have as African-Americans." https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT https://t.co/zKEScFCV8x — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"To suggest there is some numerical [50%] barrier that you have to achieve is absurd," said Rep. Bobby Scott, whose old #VA03 (below) was unpacked in 2016. "If the votes are changing, the standard ought to change." https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT https://t.co/uGQauv3QJU — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"If I had drawn the lines, my district would not be 58% Black," #SC06 Rep. Jim Clyburn wrote in an op-ed. "I am hopeful that when redistricting is done after the 2020 Census, stacking and bleaching will not be the primary goals." https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT https://t.co/SpPasICKml — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"Some of our [CBC] members are beginning to rethink what the [Black] thresholds should be," said #NC01 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, whose old district (below) was unpacked by a racial redistricting lawsuit. https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT https://t.co/tzqCNicYyt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"If we're a quarter of the population, we should be a quarter of the seats," #AL07 Rep. Terri Sewell told me. "I'm for broadening the representation of African-Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district." https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT https://t.co/VgNZbpcWOz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

"We've only got one of six seats in a state that's a third Black," #LA02 Rep. Troy Carter (D) told me. "If Baton Rouge and Opelousas can be tied in for a second majority-minority district, I'm all in." https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT https://t.co/sTfZ0wzs8K — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

THREAD: I spent a lot of the summer interviewing Congressional Black Caucus members from the South. Almost without exception, they now favor legal action to *unpack* their own hyper-safe seats to create more minority opportunities. https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT https://t.co/K95KqAEHc0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Read to the end to find out which member said this. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AlexIp718 @TheAtlantic Actually, the editors didn't change much! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It used to be that both Black Democratic incumbents and white Republicans - "odd bedfellows" - defended hyper-packed Black districts in the South. Today, Dems' mentality has changed. Here's @RepTerriSewell: https://t.co/Lv4aV3l5mI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: across AL, LA, MS & SC, Black voters are 28% of the population but wield power in just 17% of seats. The biggest obstacle to minority voting strength in the South isn't new voting restrictions. It's overpacking. My debut for @TheAtlantic. https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT — PolitiTweet.org