Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: the most likely outcome of this map in 2022 would be 25R-13D, *however* Republicans have still left the door open a crack for Dems in #TX15 as well as a few suburban GOP seats like #TX03, #TX21, #TX23 and #TX24 under the right circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The GOP play in the Rio Grande Valley: they've turned Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D)'s #TX15 into a Trump district. Under these lines, it's likely Gonzalez would move over to retiring Rep. Filemon Vela (D)'s open #TX34, which would become an even safer Dem seat. https://t.co/NkWoddq68C — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And of course, the huge winners: #TX07 Fletcher (D) & #TX32 Allred (D), who would get mega-safe Dem districts in Houston & Dallas respectively. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another surprise: this GOP proposal doesn't shore up #TX21 Rep. Chip Roy (R) by nearly as much as it could have. He's still got a chunk of Travis Co. The much bigger winners: #TX02 Crenshaw, #TX10 McCaul, #TX22 Nehls, #TX25 Williams, #TX31 Carter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few early highlights/impressions: - a new Dem #TX37 in Austin - a new GOP #TX38 in Houston (for Wesley Hunt?) - no new Hispanic majority seat (lawsuit?) - #TX15 Gonzalez (D) made redder - #TX03 Taylor (R) & #TX24 Van Duyne (R) not shored up quite as much as I'd have expected — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. This isn't even as aggressive a map as I expected from Texas Rs. It could plausibly be 24R-14D, w/ the chance Rs add seats in the Rio Grande Valley & Dems gain in DFW burbs over the course of the 2020s. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: Proposed Texas congressional map is here (!!) https://t.co/pY2kHEPEiN https://t.co/BtR1WMLPQ1 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An example of why redistricting could be close to a wash: to defend their own existing seats against suburban erosion, TX Rs have no choice but to draw a new *Dem* seat in Austin. There’s nowhere in the country Dems need to draw a new GOP seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As predicted… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why polarization? B/c in the vast majority of locales that have become non-competitive, whoever wins one party’s primary *will* win - no matter how unqualified. What’s selling in GOP primaries right now? Loyalty to Trump & election falsehoods amplified in the disinfodemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is wild. And sadly, amid a disinfodemic & polarization I think we can expect rogue behavior by local election officials to only increase. https://t.co/VIXEUdeCHY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It looks like Oregon Republicans' walkout will block Dems' 5D-1R gerrymander, punting congressional redistricting to a five judge panel appointed by state Supreme Court Chief Justice Martha Walters. Will the panel reward quorum-breaking Rs with a more competitive map? TBD. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @hborrud: With perhaps one exception, House Republicans do not appear to be here for a quorum call in the Oregon House. That would mea… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A key reason Dems might take this deal: even Schrader would be getting a slightly less blue #OR05, he'd be picking up the fastest Dem-trending place in the state: Bend. The bet is that this would *become* a solid 5D-1R map over the course of the decade. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By my calculation, Schrader's #OR05 (Biden +9 in '20) would get about two points more R, whereas under the Dem proposal it would've gotten a few points more Dem. The new #OR06 would still be a Biden +10 seat. Most likely outcome still 5D-1R, but slightly less safe. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: the “compromise” map the OR legislature could reportedly consider today would put Bend in Rep. Kurt Schrader (D)’s #OR05 instead of #OR03 and still protect #OR04 Rep. Peter DeFazio (D). 4D-1R-1C. https://t.co/M4veGvsiem — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @hborrud: Oregon lawmakers are considering a new congressional districts map today, which one person knowledgeable of the situation says… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The race is on: will Nebraska be the first state to finalize a new congressional map? P.S. correction: passes legislature 36-10, per @OWHnews. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Nebraska compromise! Omaha is kept whole like Dems want, but Rs get rural Saunders Co. added to Rep. Don Bacon's (R) #NE02. Biden '20 margin in #NE02 would fall from +7 to +6. Advances legislature 38-8. https://t.co/89NFq9MoZr https://t.co/O4osk0mzo6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mattizcoop: The welcome rethinking (including my own) about majority-minority districts and political power. Me in the Washington @Mont… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical: redistricting updates in Colorado, Maine & Oregon. https://t.co/OAVuN0ufut https://t.co/IHMJHytohG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maine's bipartisan redistricting committee appears to arrived at a deal to shift Augusta from #ME01 to #ME02, which would reduce Trump's 2020 margin in Rep. Jared Golden (D)'s seat from 7.5 pts to 6.1 pts ahead of a tough 2022 race. https://t.co/FFxXtqFCxf https://t.co/JGaoHi7gQw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: It’s a cool dunk…if you don’t know that this is the first time New York Democrats have controlled redistricting since 1… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @asymmetricinfo: I am gaping in awe at the notion that New York's Democratic Party has never considered gerrymandering before. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Remember when Dems were complaining about the preliminary CO map draft that came out in June? Right now they'd take that map in a heartbeat - 5/8 seats were Biden +10 or more! https://t.co/L3zMA4RbPP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, all three of these proposals needlessly split counties/localities and are generally just weirder than you'd expect from a commission. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Topline: under any of the three drafts, #CO03 Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) would likely be fine and Rs would have a good chance to win up to 4/8 seats, though they'd have the toughest time reaching parity on the second plan (where 5/8 seats are Biden +5 or more). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Binders? Hey, those are almanacs (cc: @The_Almanac). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @LarrySabato: Slicing up Liberal Cities Becomes Go-To Redistricting Strategy | The Pew Charitable Trusts https://t.co/CfMpBEus3L — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only CBC member I spoke with who expressed opposition to unpacking a lot of hyper-Black districts in the South? #MS02 Rep. Bennie Thompson. https://t.co/GyUjmGMLQr https://t.co/97F757WXLw — PolitiTweet.org