Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NickRiccardi I’d guess somewhere in the 60s — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Dem reality in TX: a party rapidly ascendant in Austin/DFW (and to a lesser extent Houston), but at risk of collapse along the border. And the GOP’s draft map reflects that. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEWS: Rep Vicente Gonzalez (D) signals he will likely vacate his swing seat to run in #TX34, the safe Dem seat of retiring… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’d add: the salience of religious right/social conservatism in the 1992-2012 GOP was an important foil for Dems w/ secular WWC voters in the Midwest. Much less so now that same-sex marriage is decided and Trump seized immigration/trade. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ohio is a state that really does need a flow chart (bottom line: it's really high-stakes and the Ohio Supreme Court could single-handedly end up deciding the outcome of 3-4 House seats). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How far did Dems fall in the Rio Grande Valley in 2020? The GOP-proposed new #TX15 would be 81% Hispanic - and it would have voted for Trump by 3 pts. https://t.co/wLyb974s4d — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now live for @CookPolitical subscribers: our analysis of the new congressional maps in Maine, Nebraska & Oregon - including names of a few potential candidates in the new #OR06. https://t.co/WtdNh1flY1 https://t.co/Uj4ujldKFx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: @CookPolitical will issue 2022 House ratings on a rolling basis, as states complete new maps. Bookmark our "enacted maps" page to view new lines, race ratings and new PVI values. ME, NE & OR now live. https://t.co/dUuIJ3Chn5 https://t.co/vhUvSTnzGw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Depending on how court rulings and commission states play out, Republicans could gain the five seats they need for the majority - or Dems could even score a tiny net gain - from redistricting alone. There's a long way to go, w/ 41 states (and inevitable lawsuits) remaining. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, our current outlook of a 1-2 seat GOP net gain from new maps alone should *not* be interpreted as "redistricting doesn't matter/won't change much." There's a lot of uncertainty in many states, and partisan maps will dramatically shrink the House battlefield (i.e., TX). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nebraska becomes the third state in the country to finalize congressional redistricting. In a win for Dems, Douglas Co. (Omaha) stays whole in #NE02, which stays at Biden +6. But the @CookPolitical rating for #NE02 Rep. Don Bacon (R) starts at Likely R. https://t.co/Lt0kA5FeFX — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're scoring Oregon's new map as +1 for Dems and Colorado's new map as +0.5 for each party on our @CookPolitical redistricting tracker. Our outlook remains a GOP net gain of 1-2 seats from redistricting alone, w/ a lot of uncertainty in many states. https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP https://t.co/qIIqAyfIvT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh, the biggest surprise in Maine redistricting is that there were three different ways to split Kennebec County - without splitting towns - that led to a population deviation of a single person between #ME01 and #ME02. What were the odds? Impressive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@davidshor @Nate_Cohn @kwcollins @kapoano @NateSilver538 @AlecMacGillis Are you guys pricing in any longtime resident backlash to the new ski resort/research univ/tech campus? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical rating for #ME02 Rep. Jared Golden (D): Toss Up (would've been the same rating under the old lines too). #ME01 still Solid D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maine becomes the second state to complete congressional redistricting, joining Oregon. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you’re wondering why CO’s commission passed a map that gives Rs a chance to win a 4-4 split in a state that voted Biden +13, a big reason is that the reform voters passed gave each party four seats on the commission. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Multiple CO commissioners now choking up w/ tears in their post-adoption remarks hailing the new map. A reminder that drawing a map collaboratively isn't easy & can be emotionally taxing. Not every state may be as successful arriving at agreement. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This map is good news for pretty much every current incumbent (including Boebert) and creates a new #CO08 north of Denver that would have voted Trump +2 in '16 and Biden +5 in '20. It's Dem-trending, but in a favorable midterm enviro for Rs, it's a Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: after hours of (at times tense) deliberations, Colorado's commission has voted to adopt the 4D-3R-1C map below as its final plan by a vote of 11-1. It now advances to the CO Supreme Court for review. https://t.co/lsSyCKv9hs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For critics of comparing '21 recall vote to higher-turnout prez cycles (fair), here's Imperial's results in gov races only, relative to statewide margin: 2010: D+26 (D+13 statewide) 2014: D+31 (D+19 statewide) 2018: D+23 (D+24 statewide) 2021 recall: D+20 (D+24 statewide) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A sign of continuing Dem struggles w/ non-college & rural Hispanics: Imperial Co., CA (85% Hispanic), which gave Trump 26% in '16 and 34% in '20, is now up to 40% Yes on the recall (h/t @rpyers). https://t.co/mFbvO5ng3B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A plot twist: in the last few minutes, the commission's preference has flipped to a map that would be functionally 5D-3R (last leading map was 4D-3R-1C). Still one vote shy of passage. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big winner in these deliberations: #CO03 Rep. Lauren Boebert (R), who is on track to avoid getting a significantly bluer district w/ Vail, Breckenridge & Steamboat in it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Colorado's commission is on the verge of advancing a map that would feature four Dem seats, three GOP seats, and a competitive new #CO08 that would've voted Trump +2 in '16 and Biden +5 in '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Taniel The report says #CO08 2020 Sen result is Hickenlooper +8, up from +2 in the third staff plan...I think. Are you seeing something different? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The hypothetical below is one of the cleaner ways you could draw a map to approximate MI's partisan lean (7-6 Trump in '16, 7-6 Biden in '20) - but it's unlikely you'd achieve that balance if you were drawing a partisan-blind plan. https://t.co/ChogPikiFm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Michigan's rules say "districts shall not provide a disproportionate advantage to any political party." But as long as you keep two 50%+ Black seats in Detroit, you'd have to slightly gerrymander the rest of the state in Dems' favor to prevent 8-9 of 13 districts from leaning R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not even going to post the Michigan map drafts circulating b/c they're bound to change a lot. But, they show why the commission would need to make choices that actively benefit Ds if they don't want a GOP-leaning map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Democrats have a lot riding on the legislation before Congress this week. But, their electoral fate is more closely tied to… — PolitiTweet.org