Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In both GA and NC, Republicans face a choice between drawing 9R-5D maps (examples, left) or more aggressive 10R-4D maps (right). In GA, the risk of 10R-4D is more a longterm electoral backfire. In NC, the risk is more an immediate legal backfire in state court. https://t.co/iiIUdouo44 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A final addendum: VA Dems have been anticipating court-drawn maps and have tried to ensure they'll have a say in how they're drawn. But there's no guarantee the final product will be to their liking. https://t.co/oQxLWl1hKI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: AR Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) to let GOP legislature's map become law without his signature, per @greggiroux, leaving open possibility of a lawsuit against a three-way split of Pulaski Co. that dilutes Black voters. https://t.co/Q9Pusgr2jH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That last map is probably a worst-case scenario for Dems (btw, these are all shaded w/ a composite party score b/c DRA doesn't have 2020 results for VA yet). Even so, even a least-change scenario would put Rs within reach of 6R-5D in a favorable midterm - a bad outcome for Ds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too. In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state! https://t.co/OJFlvSGKCc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

https://t.co/hNRU5Mhjn0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable. https://t.co/m684uCWMDv — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable. https://t.co/hdWRbhcC38 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal... https://t.co/4WWrzoWwfl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: AZ is headed for a major shakeup, putting it at the epicenter of the 2022 battle for the House. https://t.co/OGEd9Wn0Z6 https://t.co/SZn4yONiFl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Disclaimer: these AZ map drafts are extremely fluid. That said, this architecture would basically trade a Northern Arizona seat to Rs, a Scottsdale seat to Ds and make a Tucson D seat more competitive. As we've said, Reps. Tom O'Halleran (D) & Dave Schweikert (R) are in danger. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A great dispatch from @daveweigel on an overlooked race this November: the crowded primary for safe Dem #FL20. https://t.co/bSixBVBj4w — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A clear sign Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy thinks a strong '21 GOP showing in VA would be a powerful '22 recruitment tool/Dem retirement generator. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And since then, Louisville has veered left as KY has veered right. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only two highly competitive states with independent redistricting commissions? Arizona and Michigan. As swing seats dwindle elsewhere, these two are poised to be central to the 2022 House battleground. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This “RIP mentions” tweet is now five months old, and tbh many of the replies haven’t held up so well. (tbc, I still view Youngkin as the slight underdog). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big unresolved questions: - will Grand Rapids and Kalamazoo be linked? - will Midland be added in with Flint/Saginaw? - will a Macomb seat include a lot of eastern Oakland? Dems hope each answer is yes. In any case, a more Lansing-centric seat for Slotkin looks likely. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Decent news for Dems in Michigan: the new commission just voted to advance four maps that take “partisan fairness” into account to road-test at public hearings. Biden would’ve carried 7/13 districts under two of the proposals, up from 6/14 under the current map. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The WV Senate's redistricting committee has advanced a map that would put #WV01 Rep. David McKinley (R) & #WV02 Rep. Alex Mooney (R) in the same district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@lxeagle17 If we took 2020 crosstabs like these at face value, Biden would've won by 10 pts, not 4.4. I just don't find much value in horse race polls these days, tbh. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Utah were to draw a maximally compact map, it would almost certainly split 3R-1D, instead of 4R-0D. In the hypothetical below, #UT02 would have voted for Biden by 26 pts. Then again, if Maryland had a maximally compact map, it would likely be 6D-2R, not 7D-1R (or 8D-0R). https://t.co/m2Wl5bqODa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new wrinkle: in 2018, voters narrowly (50.3-49.7) passed a new independent commission to draw lines that don't "unduly favor or disfavor" candidates or parties. But in 2020, GOP legislators passed a bill making the commission's role purely advisory (i.e. they can ignore it). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

UTAH: every decade, like clockwork, Rs resort to more aggressive ways to pizza-slice Salt Lake Co. to dilute Dem votes. 2021 is no exception. Won't be hard for Rs to shore up new Rep. Burgess Owens (R) by moving #UT04 from Trump +9 (left) to Trump +15 or more (example, right). https://t.co/7NmsKN0V9U — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, it's wild to look back at the last time Republicans won a statewide race in Virginia, 2009. Bob McDonnell took 51% in Fairfax, 37% in Alexandria, 61% in Loudoun, 31% in Richmond. Those numbers are totally unthinkable for any R today. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I don't think we can tell where #VAGOV stands based on polls that all make slightly different assumptions about who will vote. My guess is that Youngkin is on track to lose by 2-5 pts b/c he's been unwilling to take positions that would help him win. But just a guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, Virginia's attempt at redistricting reform has been a train wreck. A good writeup by @gmoomaw. https://t.co/wMf8Zb0sJz — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Roflsnarf1 Actually in this version, Palm Harbor/northern Pinellas stays in #FL12 and #FL13 picks up deep red parts of Manatee. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One Dem I'm skeptical Republicans will target: #FL05 Rep. Al Lawson (D). Jacksonville and Tallahassee are both experiencing Dem vote growth (bucking FL's overall trend). Rs will likely want to keep them packed in one vote sink - not to mention avoid triggering a VRA lawsuit. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the example above: - #FL28 would be a new Trump +16 seat south of Orlando - #FL07 Murphy (D) moves from Biden +10 to Trump +15 - #FL13 Crist (D) moves from Biden +4 to Trump +1 - #FL27 Salazar (R) moves from Biden +3 to Trump +4 by ditching Miami Beach/Brickell/Coconut Grove — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The reason? Unlike maps in other large states the GOP controls (TX, GA, OH), the current FL map isn't already a Republican gerrymander. It was redrawn by courts in 2016 after a more liberal FL Supreme Court struck down the GOP's 2011 map. Now, Dems are in big trouble. — PolitiTweet.org