Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Believe it or not, some Dems are pushing a truly wild draft that would leave them w/ even flimsier margins than in the first official proposal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty obvious why #IL03 Newman was the only Dem whose district was legit made *worse* in this map: retribution for ousting Lipinski in the 2020 primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even in Downstate IL, where Dems face no incumbent constraints, they stranded a few hyper-blue precincts in ultra-red districts, costing #IL13 and #IL17 a few points of Biden margin. TX Republicans weren't that sloppy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One GOP strategist called this afternoon and joked to me that there "must have been a Republican mole" in IL Dems' map-drawing room. A DC Dem consultant fuming over the map: "if you're going to make it that ugly, at least make it more effective." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

IL Dems appear to have gone out of their way to make their gerrymander *less* efficient. As proposed (left), #IL03, #IL14 and #IL17 would be close to toss ups in 2022. With a few slightly different choices (example, right), 14/17 districts would've been Biden +10 or more. https://t.co/gOw2buyqO8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More like “Democrats gerrymander poorly.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One possible explanation for why the IL Dem map leaves three of their own seats at risk: hyper-safe Chicago Dems don't want to give up their own blue turf/take more GOP turf for the team. Quigley, Casten, Krishnamoorthi, Schakowsky, Schneider seats all pretty much unchanged. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kkondik: Horrible map for Democrats - the median seat is 14 points to the right of the state, per 2020 presidential results. On current… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New analysis up for @CookPolitical subscribers. It's the weirdest map I've seen yet. https://t.co/zPSxjqXjiI https://t.co/UjD9PvshBO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Similar situation w/ Rep. Marie Newman (D)'s #IL03. Had Dems given her all of Joliet instead of stretching it out into rural IL, she'd be in a double digit Biden seat instead of Biden +6. As drawn, it'd be a toss up in 2022. https://t.co/1QalIvj8xV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How much of a potential dummymander is the IL Dem proposal? It draws a crazy-looking #IL17 from Rockford to Bloomington, but inexplicably bypasses Freeport & Sterling along the way - leaving three extra points of Dem performance unrealized. https://t.co/Reptqb3uwa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

All things considered: this is just a really weird map. Besides the hideous lines, it carries a big risk of turning into a "dummymander" if Republicans have a good 2022. It's not hard to see Dems' 14D-3R intent turning into a 10D-7R reality if things go really awry. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@DrewSav No, it's still IL-14 (the one that goes from her house south of Naperville to the WI border). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, #IL13 Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is far from doomed in this proposed Biden +11 seat. Dems had the opportunity to make his seat Biden +18 and every current Dem seat Biden +10 or more - and passed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Illinois update: this Dem 14D-3R gerrymander is both uglier *and* less effective than I'd have expected. #IL03 Newman: Biden +6 #IL14 Underwood: Biden +8 #IL17 OPEN (Bustos): Biden +6 All of these seats are potentially flippable in a good midterm for Rs. https://t.co/toEaok7day — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Paul4better Link? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Early read: this is a very aggressive 14D-3R plan, with #IL17 going all the way from Rockford past Peoria to Bloomington. It's likely ~Biden +10 (now Trump +2). #IL03 Newman, #IL11 Foster and #IL14 Underwood not shored up as much as I'd expect (tho Underwood gets more Ds). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is even a bit more adventurous a gerrymander than expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, if voters hadn't passed a commission, VA Dems could have pretty easily gerrymandered themselves at least an 8D-3R map that would've shored up all seven of their incumbents and flipped #VA01 (example below). https://t.co/U562llCqGo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If this is a "unified" draft, the Dem consultant didn't do a very good job. This is a dream GOP map that would give Republicans a chance to win 6/11 seats in a Biden +10 state. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Surge voters - those who didn’t show up in ‘16 - helped Ds win in ‘18 & ‘20. But, @t_woodbury1 finds many of them, esp. you… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: why draft maps have gotten a bit better for Dems in Michigan, and why there's still a lot of uncertainty (and risk for Dems) in New Jersey's remap. https://t.co/nYT9TLGFs8 https://t.co/frbGJY7fo0 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Pac_Dozen @CookPolitical It's an all-Dem race lol — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: the overlooked November race. Could a wealthy outsider upend the "old guard" in FL-20's crowded Dem primary? https://t.co/3YegGBeXqF https://t.co/60makAW5jU — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here's the basic architecture I've been expecting (though the official draft might look a little different). In this example, #IL17 would move from Trump +2 to Biden +8. All 13 other Dem seats (including #IL13 and #IL14) would be Biden +14 or more. https://t.co/yeavRAbPbH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As @CookPolitical forecast months ago, Illinois Dems are about to unveil a 14D-3R map that nukes GOP Reps. Adam Kinzinger & Rodney Davis. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not all bipartisan/independent redistricting commissions are created alike. Some are citizen-driven (i.e. CA, CO) while some are partisan insider-y (i.e. NJ, WA). Some function, some don't. How they operate (or not) is going to decide a lot of House races. https://t.co/MI1nOybq3m — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under the likely new lines, #WV01 Rep. David McKinley (R) would already rep 66% of the new #WV01, while #WV02 Rep. Alex Mooney (R) would only rep 34%. But Mooney has $2.5 million on hand to McKinley's $502,000 and could have the upper hand (read more in our preview from 9/21). https://t.co/SdDlpJy0NH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even though WV was always 100% certain to lose one Republican, the question is which *kind* of R: pro-certification #WV01 Rep. David McKinley (R) or more pro-Trump #WV02 Rep. Alex Mooney (R), who are about to be merged into one northern seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: You follow The Cook Political Report on social media but why stop there? Subscribe now and register for our subscriber-o… — PolitiTweet.org