Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This reality always made it fairly easy for IL Dems to target his seat, #IL16, in redistricting (as they did last night by merging him w/ GOP Rep. Darin LaHood). Preserving it likely would've led to Kinzinger's defeat by a pro-Trump R anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kinzinger becomes the 2nd pro-impeachment R to retire, basically acknowledging he can't get past a primary. I'd be somewhat surprised if more than 3/10 pro-impeachment Rs are back in Congress in 2023. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: Rep Adam Kinzinger (R) announces his retirement, just hours Illinois Democrats passed a new congressional pairing him in a… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: McAuliffe by 1 in the final Post/Scher poll, which now counts as decent news for Democrats in a state Biden won by 10 https… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Redistrict: I think Republicans actually have a good chance to win the VA governor’s race this year. We’ll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NapervillePol @Uncrewed It is possible, but that's besides the point. An easy way for Dems to make #IL06 better for them would've been to give all of Mount Greenwood to Bobby Rush. 🤣 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Uncrewed I guess the point is, there were easy ways for Dems to make #IL06 Biden +12 or even +15, w/ a stronger pro-Dem trend. Right now, we're seeing Dems struggle in a Biden +10 state w/ an even bluer trend (VA). Unlikely to decide House control, but still a possible headache. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I also wonder if this new #IL06, which is Biden +10 but includes SW Chicago burbs that are trending right, could be vulnerable to an R in 2022 if Casten/Newman out-progressive each other in a primary. Not hard to see this 14D-3R becoming 12D-5R in a poor Dem cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Map now awaits Gov. J.B. Pritzker's signature. #IL03 Newman (D) double-bunked w/ #IL04 Garcia (D), but I'd guess she runs in #IL06 vs. Casten (D). If #IL17 is close next fall, Dems may regret stranding blue Bloomington/Normal precincts in #IL16, leaving it 2-3 pts less blue. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: IL Dems' 14D-3R gerrymander passes the full legislature. Vote is 71-43 in the state house, w/ zero votes to spare for needed three-fifths majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jbarro The map revisions made tonight gave Casten his own seat to appease him and his allies — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This doesn’t seem promising for Dems’ 14D-3R gerrymander… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's midnight (and showtime) in Springfield...can Dems pass their 14D-3R plan? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI: an excellent final @CookPolitical analysis of #VAGOV by @JessicaTaylor. https://t.co/gomJsDmaC5 https://t.co/tJd3W32wCL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot @allymutnick Not happening...Garcia running on south side no matter what — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Do I think it's possible Youngkin wins by eight? Sure. The last time the political climate was bad for Dems, McDonnell won by 17 pts (!) a year after Obama carried VA by 6 pts. Biden +10 to Youngkin +8 would actually be a smaller swing. Do I think it's likely? No. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This draft would be lights out for #AZ01 Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D) and would make Rep. Dave Schweikert's (R) #AZ06 and retiring Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick's (D) #AZ02 pure tossups, resulting in a 4R-3D-2C split (currently delegation is 5D-4R). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The latest versions also stretch #IL17 up to Rock Cut State Park to barely grab the house of Rockford state Sen. Steve Stadelman (D), a sign Dems could be prepping him to run for Rep. Cheri Bustos's open seat (tho curiously, they've made #IL17 only a weak Dem seat). https://t.co/edC4ltlIHI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: IL Dems' *fourth* draft map merges Reps. Marie Newman (D) & Chuy Garcia (D) in an #IL04 where Garcia would have a big advantage, leaving Rep. Sean Casten (D) in an #IL06 by himself. Still unclear whether this version has the votes to pass. https://t.co/bH4Bm1QNdk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Garrett_Archer: Arizona redistricting commission has adopted a draft map for the state's nine congressional districts that will be pres… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A reminder: Youngkin likely only needs to hit 34% in Fairfax and 43% in Loudoun to win statewide. I think that's doable for him in this political environment. We'll see soon enough. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: Illinois congressional remap likely punted to January after #IL06 Rep. Sean Casten's (D) allies in the legislature object to double-bunking him w/ #IL03 Rep. Marie Newman (D). In January, Springfield Dems won't need as high a threshold to pass their draft. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My guess is that Miller would start out as the primary favorite over Davis if this hyper-red #IL15 were to be signed into law. But this #IL15 has quite a bit of Davis's current territory, which looks like a Dem attempt to dissuade him from running statewide in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@FrankCalabrese My bad, uploaded the wrong file. The latest version: https://t.co/l1fIiCGCVO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

IL Dems' latest map is pretty cleverly designed to target Rep. Mary Miller (R). It splits her current #IL15 (left) four ways, w/ her house added to Rep. Mike Bost's (R) #IL12 and the bulk of her GOP voters in #IL15 where Rep. Rodney Davis (R) is the only resident incumbent. https://t.co/b7rysjPuN2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No surprise here: Iowa Republicans poised to approve lines that would feature a 4-0 set of Trump '20 districts, up from 2-2 in the first (rejected) proposal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here is the link to sign up if you’re already a @CookPolitical subscriber: https://t.co/e09OC0zxbK — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not too late to sign up for today's special @CookPolitical redistricting subscriber briefing at 11am. Ask me and @amyewalter anything! https://t.co/f1nxhnXFYw https://t.co/erwH8HyqHE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not too much substantive change from the second draft. Dems still leave #IL17 two points short of its max Dem potential, which they may come to regret if race there ends up being close. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Realistically, I think LA still has enough Black population for two effective districts (down from three in past decades), but Compton/Carson would need to be moved out of #CA44 to bolster #CA37 and #CA43 (as shown below). We'll see what the commission decides. https://t.co/3vSLvQVuqv — PolitiTweet.org