Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're expecting to get Fairfax absentee/early vote numbers quickly after 7pm tonight (unlike in the past). If Youngkin gets over 30% of that vote, that'd be a great sign for him (but I'd still expect it to be sub-30%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In addition, here are six races I'd consider on the "outskirts" of deciding control but still competitive/worth watching: #HD27: Robinson (R) #HD40: Helmer (D) #HD51: OPEN (D) #HD66: OPEN (R) #HD68: Adams (D) #HD91: Mugler (D) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the VA House of Delegates (currently 55D-45R), here are the nine races likeliest to decide control: #HD10: Gooditis (D) #HD12: Hurst (D) #HD21: Convirs-Fowler (D) #HD28: Cole (D) #HD72: VanValkenburg (D) #HD73: Willett (D) #HD75: Tyler (D) #HD83: Guy (D) #HD85: Askew (D) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You (and others) are assuming that it's just one red rural county where turnout is surging. In 2020, about 51% of Virginia's vote was cast in localities that were more pro-Trump than the state as a whole. Virginia's vote isn't dominated by super-blue counties. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: While we are waiting for results, make sure to read @amyewalter's latest on what we can expect to learn from #VAGOV http… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another few big blue localities w/ 4pm turnout reports. Fairfax County now up to 96% of its '17 totals, Alexandria City up to 95%. That's robust turnout in suburban Dem strongholds, but not as big a surge vs. '17 as we're seeing in rural red localities. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, Charlottesville is not representative of all blue areas. For example, Falls Church (Biden +64) was at 102% of its '17 total at 4pm. But as expected, Rs are seeing a big enthusiasm surge vs. '17. Whether it's enough for Youngkin, we'll see. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As strong as turnout has been in blue areas, red areas looking even higher. Rockingham Co. (Trump +40) now up to 116% of its '17 turnout, w/ three hours left to go. By comparison, Charlottesville (Biden +73) is at only 89% of its '17 turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Based on local turnout reports, VA is on track to break 3 million votes, which would surpass gubernatorial record of 2.6M set in 2017. Not clear which side that benefits, but this isn't a scenario in which turnout in blue areas is falling through the floor. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Look, EDay turnout prognostication is inherently messy (and apologies for screwing up the AB/EV numbers in the tweets I deleted earlier). In full disclosure, I was once a college student/Charlottesville voter who woke up late, so perhaps I shouldn't be surprised by the upswing. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: the pace of in-person voting in Charlottesville increased *a lot* between 9am and 1pm, now putting it on track to perhaps slightly exceed 2017's 16.5k turnout - a relief for Dems. https://t.co/VbokbIcMMs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A good turnout inside the Beltway so far today, perhaps on pace to slightly exceed my model/expectations. The real concern for Dems today is turnout in younger/non-white and less upscale/professional areas. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn I was careless to confuse the 4,543 EV in the registrar's tweet w/ the 6,461 AV/EV, but was also calculating the 9am '21 vs. 9am '17 to measure the pace. Obviously there are pitfalls in doing it that way, but 1pm update should be somewhat more instructive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A great resource for tracking the fight for the VA House of Delegates tonight - which will tell us just as much about the overall political environment as the statewides. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: we're probably looking at 2.8M to 3.1M statewide turnout today, up from 2.6M in 2017 (+10% or so). If turnout is *below* 2017 levels in college towns or heavily non-white precincts/localities, that would be a good sign for Youngkin. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are still 9 hours for this to change, but the main turnout concern for Dems today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia, it's young/non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much today. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Deleted an earlier tweet because the figures cited by the registrar below did not include 2k+ mail ballots. At this rate, Charlottesville would be on pace for ~15k votes, still down from 16.5k in 2017 and potentially a weak turnout in an 86% Biden city. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There's still 9 hours for this to change, but the main Dem concern today isn't white college grads in Northern Virginia - it's young and non-white voters who were super-motivated in the Trump era but not so much now. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At this rate, Charlottesville is on track for 11-13k total votes (including early/absentees), down from 16.5k in 2017 - a really weak turnout in an 86% Biden city. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: And proposed congressional maps for Massachusetts are out https://t.co/T4vtJtOgK5 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@bee_toes Yes, I can guarantee Youngkin will lose Fairfax County — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Youngkin has an excellent chance to win #VAGOV w/ a coalition very different from the last time a Republican won statewide (2009). That year, Bob McDonnell *won* Fairfax County. Youngkin doesn’t even need to hit 35% there to win tomorrow. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Colorado becomes the 7th state in the country to complete a new congressional map. We're scoring the new #CO08 as +0.5 for each party, for a 4D-3R-1C map overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @notlarrysabato: The thing I’m noticing from all the stats is that the early vote is strongly D, but also very white. The outcome will… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Kinzinger had zero path in a GOP primary, which is why Dems had no reservations about axing his seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under this GOP proposal (left), #NC02 would be 39.8% Black. Plaintiffs could pretty easily show you can draw a much more compact district that's 45%+ Black (right). https://t.co/S6cJMsYN20 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As @drewsav et. al. note, a preemptive VRA suit has already been filed in NC. As racial gerrymandering goes, this map is pretty blatant. It dilutes Black voters' strength in #NC01 by axing Greenville from Butterfield's seat. I'd be surprised if it passes court scrutiny. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This GOP proposal would be 10R-3D-1C (#NC02). But, it could risk a VRA suit for weakening Black voting strength in Rep. G.K. Butterfield's (D) northeastern #NC01 (#NC02 here), reducing it from Biden +9 to Biden +2. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No surprise here. Now we're on track for the first Dem incumbent vs. incumbent showdown of 2022: Marie Newman (D) vs. Sean Casten (D) in #IL06. And, Newman reps much more of the new CD than Casten, per IL data sleuth @FrankCalabrese. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An underrated factor in #VAGOV’s closeness: the declining salience of COVID as an issue for voters. It’s telling McAuliffe’s closing message is basically just Trump, not hammering Youngkin for holding an unpopular position: opposing vax mandates, even for healthcare workers. — PolitiTweet.org