Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Republicans have now picked up #HD12 Hurst (D), #HD28 Cole (D), #HD75 Tyler (D), #HD83 Guy (D), per @notlarrysabato. They need two more pickups to win an outright 51R-49D majority, and right now they're slight favorites to get there. #VAHoD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Needless to say, tonight's results are consistent w/ a political environment in which Republicans would comfortably take back both the House and Senate in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, per @ChazNuttycombe and @notlarrysabato, Republicans have scored pickups in #HD12, #HD75 and #HD83. They need two more pickups to retake the majority, and they have five great opportunities remaining (#HD21, #HD28, #HD72, #HD73, #HD85). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It looks like Del. Wendy Gooditis (D) will barely hang on to win reelection 51%-49% in closely contested #HD10. Results bleaker for Dems in other House of Delegates races... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Mike Carey (R) defeats Allison Russo (D) in the #OH15 special election (this is a Trump +14 seat, so no surprise here). Dems will counter Carey's addition to the House with Shontel Brown (D)'s special election win in #OH11 (Biden +60). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The real barnburner of the night is for the safe Dem #FL20 vacancy created by Rep. Alcee Hastings (D)'s death: Dale Holness (D): 11,295 (23.9%) Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D): 11,217 (23.7%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just about the only places we're seeing McAuliffe (D) exceed his vote targets are inside the Beltway. It's not enough to win, but it is enough to keep Youngkin (R)'s eventual margin quite narrow, maybe 2-3%. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Jason Miyares (R) defeats Atty Gen. Mark Herring (D). #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Winsome Sears (R) defeats Hala Ayala (D) in the Virginia lieutenant governor's race. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To my eye, we're on track for a 2-5 pt. Youngkin win. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Terry McAuliffe (D) is now 1-for-3 in Virginia gubernatorial races. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Glenn Youngkin (R) defeats Terry McAuliffe (D) in the Virginia governor's race. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Loudoun Co.: McAuliffe lead up to 55%-44% w/ mail ballots now reporting. Per my benchmarks, McAuliffe needed to win it by 14%. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Culpeper: Youngkin needed to win it by 30%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 34%. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Danville (Southside VA): McAuliffe needed to win it by 10%, per my benchmarks. McAuliffe wins it by only 7%. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Radford (college town in SWVA): McAuliffe needed to win it by 0.3%, per my benchmarks. Youngkin wins it by 9%. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Youngkin is rolling up huge margins in rural VA, making a lot of headway in outer suburbs and doing better than I'd have expected among in-person early voters. He's in the driver's seat right now. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Loudoun Co.: up to 128k votes counted, and McAuliffe winning there by just 53%-47%. McAuliffe better hope for a huge showing in the remaining VBM, but Youngkin performed *much* better than I expected w/ the early vote. Advantage: Youngkin. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Northumberland Co. (Northern Neck, rural): Youngkin needed to win it by 26%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 29%, w/ higher than expected turnout. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, I'd rather be Youngkin (R). But we've still got a long way to go. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Brunswick Co. (Black majority, rural): McAuliffe needed to win it by 4%, per my benchmarks. He wins it by 5%. Long way to go, but this race looks tight right now. #VAGOV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Manassas: McAuliffe needed to win it by 12% by my benchmarks. It had higher than expected turnout, and he only won it by 10%. McAuliffe needs to compensate for it in other types of suburbs to win. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, based on a limited number of rural counties fully reporting (Bland, Buchanan), Youngkin is mostly hitting the rural numbers he needs. Long way to go. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fairfax: 133k early votes reported and McAuliffe winning the batch 74%-26%. That seems to exclude the vote-by-mail that could be even better for McAuliffe. To my eye, we're on pace for a close statewide finish. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just got up to 108k votes reported in Loudoun, and McAuliffe lead there down to 53%-46%. According to Loudoun Co., 40k of these *are* early votes...in which case, that would be good for Youngkin. Need a few minutes to sort this out. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking in Loudoun Co.: 71k votes reported and McAuliffe wins the batch 55%-45%. @vpapupdates is reporting those are *Election Day* votes, not EV/VBM. If that's true, it would be a good result for McAuliffe. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McAuliffe's 15% of the EDay vote so far in Buchanan Co. (far SWVA) strikes me as pretty respectable, considering Biden got 16% there and we don't even have EV/VBM reporting yet. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

McAuliffe wins the Arlington early/absentee vote 82%-18%. That 64 pt. margin will come down as Election Day votes come in, but McAuliffe needs a ~52 pt. margin there to win statewide. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, Youngkin running up enormous margins among EDay batches of votes in rural, red VA counties. Doesn't tell us much yet. #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

ICYMI, here are the targets I think Youngkin/McAuliffe need to exceed in each VA locality to win tonight (though we already know overall turnout will be a bit higher). #VAGOV — PolitiTweet.org