Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. Election Twitter's own @SeanTrende and Bernard Grofman, a UC-Irvine professor who has previously served as a court-appointed special master to redraw VA's lines, will work together to draft VA's next maps. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Election Twitter's own @SeanTrende and Bernard Grofman, a UC-Irvine professor who has previously served as a court-appointed to redraw VA's lines, will work together to draft new maps for Virginia. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Harris and McCarthy have to exorcise the demons — and shortcomings — that hurt them last time around. But, the most importa… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Shorter McCarthy: I acknowledge I have skeptics in my conference after what happened on the last big vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In California, the commission can’t take into account partisanship or incumbents when drafting new lines. But that doesn’t stop threatened incumbents from trying to influence the process for their own benefit… https://t.co/Yx1QG5xwaM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, we have our first veto of a congressional redistricting plan. Gov. Tony Evers (D) blocks a 6R-2D plan passed by the GOP legislature, but it's possible a court-drawn map could lead to the same result in 2022. https://t.co/HStHztZIss — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: analysis of the latest redistricting developments in MA, MI, OH, VA & WI. https://t.co/tyD8j7FAUo https://t.co/pDuMvfUCFk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This would have been a Toss Up under the just-passed NC lines anyway (pending lawsuits), but would become even more uphill for Dems without Butterfield. #NC01 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bad news for Dems in this 9R-5D gerrymander: Rep. Lucy McBath (D) would get a solid red #GA06. Consolation for Dems: Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) gets a solid blue #GA07 and Rep. Sanford Bishop (D) keeps a Dem-leaning #GA02. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Been hearing this as well: #GA06 could remain a weak gerrymander (good enough for Rs to win in 2022, but questionable beyond that). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nevada becomes the 14th state to complete congressional redistricting. By unpacking Las Vegas's #NV01 and drawing 3/4 districts w/ single-digit Biden margins, Dems have taken a calculated risk to maximize their (decreasing) chances for a House majority. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, here's the map the commission approved (a little too late) and is urging the WA Supreme Court to adopt anyway. It's a fairly status quo map that would keep Rep. Kim Schrier (D)'s competitive #WA08 mostly unchanged, from Biden +6.5 to +6.7. Still 6D-3R-1C. https://t.co/jyoKZmVboc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting: the WA commission admits it barely missed its midnight deadline to approve new maps, but urges the WA Supreme Court to adopt the lines it agreed on a few minutes too late. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An emerging mini-theme: Republican mappers reducing the Black %s in rural VRA districts just enough that Black Dem incumbents would be in danger, but not so much that a lawsuit against vote dilution would be a slam dunk (#GA02, #NC01). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The lesson here: purely partisan commissions (no unaffiliateds/tie-breakers) have little incentive to work together. So far, MT/CO have passed maps, and AZ/CA/MI/NJ still on track to. VA was set pretty much set up to fail, and WA always looked tenuous this cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

WA becomes the second state (along w/ VA) where a state supreme court will take over redistricting after a commission’s deadlock/failure. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @greggiroux: Washington state Supreme Court taking over redistricting duties after commission failed to adopt a new map by deadline. #wa… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To me, this GOP proposal says Ohio Rs are afraid of an adverse ruling from the OH Supreme Court (and still should be). It wouldn't be hard for Rs to draw a maximal 13R-2D gerrymander. But this gives Kaptur (D) a shot in #OH09, and Dems longer-term shots in #OH01, #OH13 & #OH15. https://t.co/Tm8TcmaZ4C — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bigger impact of redistricting: the winnowing of competitive seats. In 2020, 51/435 House seats voted within 5% either way in the presidential race. 91/435 voted within 10% either way. We think these numbers could decline by as much as one third under new lines. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Redistricting update: our latest @CookPolitical estimate is a GOP net gain of ~2.5 seats from redistricting alone, w/ still a lot of uncertainty in many states (esp. those w/ commissions, split control & lawsuits). https://t.co/IaUNKmz1GP https://t.co/qB2xCvaJni — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A safe Dem seat, but think we can expect a lot more of these on the D side in the next few months. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still looks like a GOP attempt at 13R-2D, though a few of those 13 would be winnable for Ds under the right circumstances (esp. #OH01, #OH09, #OH13 and #OH15). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @daveweigel: Republicans have gained two TX seats in the last month - both Hispanic districts, one via special election one via party sw… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only state that has never elected a woman to Congress? Vermont. If #VTAL Rep. Peter Welch (D) runs for Leahy's seat, that's going to be a huge consideration in the open House seat race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Thorongil16 What’s a thorongil? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Thorongil16 I’ll follow you but the standout of tonight’s palooza was @PranavC_ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Great piece by @PoliticsReid on how redistricting has exploded in the public consciousness since a decade ago. https://t.co/aTnFY2ajzp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MappingFL: The final votes are in for the #FL20 Democratic primary. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick has edged Dale Holness by FIVE RAW VOTE… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Utah becomes the 12th state to complete congressional redistricting (following Montana earlier today), enshrining a 4R-0D shutout by splitting Salt Lake Co. four ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. Supreme Court of Virginia throws out all three GOP nominees to serve as "special master" to draw new redistricting maps. Orders Rs to nominate three or more new names (the court will then select one D/R each to draft maps). Not a good start for Rs. — PolitiTweet.org