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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: AZ's tie-breaking commission chair sides 3-2 w/ Dems to use this draft as a starting point for final negotiations on the congressional map. As opposed to the R-backed plan (which likely would've been 6R-3D), this is 4R-2D-3C (w/ #AZ01, #AZ04 and #AZ06 pretty competitive). https://t.co/exMVttJrhX — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big fork in the road for AZ redistricting today... — PolitiTweet.org

Jeremy Duda @jeremyduda

Today's meeting of the @ArizonaIRC has begun. It's a big day. The IRC will choose one map to use as its new startin… https://t.co/3GKmDVwweg

Posted Dec. 16, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Safe Dem seat, but the 20th House Dem to announce they're not seeking reelection. I'd expect plenty more once lines are complete in CA. — PolitiTweet.org

Rep. Alan Lowenthal @RepLowenthal

After serving the 47th District of California for almost 10 years in Washington, D.C., I have decided not to run fo… https://t.co/ML5N3BSxYo

Posted Dec. 16, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How rough a situation are WI Dems in? Even Gov. Tony Evers (D) is relenting to support a congressional map that would likely result in a 6R-2D split out of a state Biden carried. https://t.co/e3CCR37UNJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interesting: SC's House redistricting committee releases a draft map that would narrow the margin in Rep. Nancy Mace's (R) #SC01 from Trump +6 to Trump +1, making her Charleston seat more competitive (SC Senate draft would make it Trump +9). https://t.co/S9V5nWjJ6K — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 15, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Multiple people telling me suburban Richmond Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) is gauging support for a run in a likely new Northern Virginia-based #VA07. If she faces a primary against several PWC-based Dems, she could take advantage of a divided field. If just one, tougher. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 15, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @smerconish: What happens when there are fewer swing districts? @Redistrict joins me @CNN in 9pm hour to discuss - tweet me your thought… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 15, 2021 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few weeks back, this was my rough prior for how CA's commission might approach the congressional remap. Needless to say, they've come up w/ far more exotic lines (to put it politely) than the ones below. https://t.co/GcKMAlE0uf — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jbouie: really interesting data and analysis on trump’s gains with hispanic voters https://t.co/afKujxqV68 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2021 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A bit wrenching to watch the CA commission tie itself into knots over how to draw Modesto, when there are perfectly logical ways to stack districts in the Central Valley while respecting VRA considerations. https://t.co/vfvd4SPlfs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 14, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEW: A look at a recent hot redistricting battleground >> State Supreme Courts In the last 2 weeks, justices have upended… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 13, 2021 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems in New Mexico pulling no punches against #NM02 Rep. Yvette Herrell (R) - and #NM03 Rep. Teresa Leger Fernandez (D) gets boosted in the latest version. — PolitiTweet.org

Zach Solomon @zach_solomon1

The NM Senate Judiciary Committee has advanced this alternative Congressional map. District 1: Biden+14.4, Ray Luj… https://t.co/xuVpqDkrY5

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Latest in AZ: Phoenix Councilwoman Laura Pastor (D), daughter of late Rep. Ed Pastor, is pushing for map changes that would aid her own future prospects in a safe Dem Phoenix seat at the expense of Dems' chances in a competitive North Phoenix district. https://t.co/HGnyaOnAOs — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why do Dem gerrymanders like IL/MD often look uglier on a map than GOP gerrymanders that are equally (or more) brutal/effective? Because Dems’ tendency to cluster in hyper-blue cities makes them easier/more efficient to pack. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

AZ update: two Dem-held districts in Northern AZ and Tucson are on track to get a lot more GOP (flipping to Trump), while one Phoenix area district would narrowly flip to Biden (but still be winnable for Rs). Net advantage: GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Jeremy Duda @jeremyduda

Two competitive congressional districts would likely get a lot better for the GOP under changes the @ArizonaIRC's c… https://t.co/D9h70qbOTY

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not saying parties "should" do anything, that's not my job. The fact I'm highlighting is that blue states have embraced redistricting reform more than red ones. As a result, Dems now have fewer opportunities to offset aggressive GOP gerrymanders with their own. — PolitiTweet.org

Kelly Burton @kellycward

There are so many problems with this: 1) It assumes parties should gerrymander 2) It assumes Dems want to gerryma… https://t.co/lwqHhE2D2f

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep up w/ @CookPolitical's ratings & PVI values for 2022 districts w/ our interactive map. As @baseballot notes, it's now possible to drive coast to coast through newly drawn congressional districts. https://t.co/nXvGjPsFl7 https://t.co/YdwhVOYE7V — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: analysis & ratings for the new map in Maryland, where Dems chose not to be maximally aggressive. New rating for #MD01 Rep. Andy Harris (R): Lean R. https://t.co/T2JxiakrHI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: analysis of the latest remap developments in CA, NM, NC and PA (subscribers only). https://t.co/9hT8ljDNal — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 10, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maryland becomes the 20th state to complete a new congressional map. Democrats have made Rep. Andy Harris's (R) #MD01 more competitive, but they stopped well short of a maximal 8D-0R gerrymander. Initial @CookPolitical rating for the new #MD01: Lean R. — PolitiTweet.org

Danielle E. Gaines @DanielleEGaines

And now Senate Democrats vote in favor of an override, enacting the congressional redistricting plan by a vote of 32-14.

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you think redistricting is easy, tune into live video of CA's commission. Mapping w/ often-competing criteria is slow, painstaking work. But CA's 14 citizens (5D, 5R, 4 neither) are making progress where other more partisan/politician-driven processes have failed. — PolitiTweet.org

sara sadhwani @sarasadhwani

We will continue the sausage making at 11am today. Overarching goal: meeting our first constitutional requirement o… https://t.co/ts4zWNeByB

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When I say "could have seized," I mean "might have otherwise seized" had voters/legislatures not approved commissions recently in CO/VA, a decade ago in CA and many decades ago in NJ/WA. The current situation was not entirely foreseeable then. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

They also got commissions in AZ and MI and anti-gerrymandering statues in FL/OH, but that only partially offsets Dems' disadvantage from voters approving commissions in blue states (CA, CO, VA etc.). — PolitiTweet.org

Andrew Prokop @awprokop

Gerrymandering is where the de facto alliance between the Democrats and nominally nonpartisan (but functionally lib… https://t.co/QHYVj3EZkL

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NickRiccardi: @mattyglesias fwiw the CA, NJ and WA commissions' existence are not due to Dems. CO and VA (partly) yes — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2021 Retweet
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

By our estimate, neutral/commission maps in the blue states of CA, CO, NJ, VA and WA (93 seats total) will end up costing Dems 10-15 House seats they could have seized by gerrymandering, making Republicans even stronger favorites for House control. https://t.co/B6pIvVChXf — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) would remain the favorite in a Youngkin +4 #VA10, but Rep. Elaine Luria (D) would be a slight underdog in a Youngkin +11 #VA02. — PolitiTweet.org

J. Miles Coleman @JMilesColeman

Last month's #VAGov results by the special masters' plan out today. Youngkin carried 6 of 11 districts while winnin… https://t.co/4kjwtOl6Xs

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@baseballot I don’t know, but she has $2.4 million on hand and it’s probably her most realistic shot at keeping a House seat. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: preliminary VA map cuts Spanberger, Luria out of their districts and could force Spanberger into the DC media market to survive. How the VA remap became a Dem self-own… https://t.co/IuFWH6J1nt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Some major moves in Orange County today: outlook improves for Katie Porter (D) and Young Kim (R), mixed bag for Michelle Steel (R). — PolitiTweet.org

Rob Pyers @rpyers

Judging from this, it looks like Michelle Steel's district keeps most of Huntington Beach and the Little Saigon are… https://t.co/UEDIT8tomo

Posted Dec. 9, 2021
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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Reminder: had VA Dems retained the power to redraw lines, we'd probably looking at an 8D-3R gerrymander (e.g. below) that would've shored up Spanberger/Luria/Wexton *and* created a new safe seat for a Prince William Co. Dem. Instead, Rs have a good shot at 5 (maybe 6?) seats. https://t.co/kiZq1HWL38 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 9, 2021