Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's a rough sketch of the next #NJ07: it's ~Biden +4, which would likely elect Tom Kean, Jr. (R) in 2022 (considering he fell a point short vs. Malinowski in a Biden +10 seat in 2020). But it could still be tricky for Kean in 2024 or beyond. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LillianBelle2 lol — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You mean a new congressional map has been agreed to and the public hasn't even seen it yet? Welcome to Jersey. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Have to say, this aged pretty well (actual map soon). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Huge winners in the new NJ congressional map: #NJ03 Rep. Andy Kim (D), #NJ05 Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D) and #NJ11 Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D), who are getting shored up big time. And of course, Tom Kean, Jr. (R), who is likely headed to Congress to replace Malinowski in #NJ07. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For now, here are more details on the Dem map (which has still not been made public) from @wildstein. https://t.co/n5fS29Htfq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BREAKING: my NJ sources confirm tie-breaking member John Wallace has selected Democratic commissioners' map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and seeks to lock in a safer 9D-3R split, down from 10D-2R today. Map coming soon. Formal vote at 10:30am. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’m told by multiple high-level sources that this NJ map making the rounds on Twitter isn’t the least bit authentic. However, tomorrow does appear to be NJ decision day - w/ absolutely no public feedback on maps. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If AZ ends up w/ a unanimous congressional map, it would be a monumental achievement after what happened a decade ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

https://t.co/3O7ZjRnFOM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fiercer performance by a redistricting commissioner than Shereen Lerner’s (D) in AZ. She used every negotiating tactic in the book to make the AZ map better for Dems, and it was weirdly captivating reality TV. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

AZ update: after intense negotiations, commissioners are on the verge of passing a map that would’ve split 5-4 Biden in 2020, a slight boost for Dems over yesterday’s iterations (though two of those Biden seats, #AZ01 and #AZ06, remain very tenuous for Dems). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just wrapped up our 4,300-word initial preview of California's 52 new districts and who's favored where. Available to @CookPolitical subscribers in the morning... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you want to see how a redistricting commission *should* work, watch AZ's livestream. Both parties' commissioners passionately hashing it out, w/ tie-breaking member Erika Neuberg doing a pretty fair job of adjudicating, in my view. https://t.co/YCMrzVf8zH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, Rep. Jim Costa (D) announces for reelection in the Fresno/Tulare #CA21 (Biden +20), which frees up the new Modesto/Merced #CA13 (Biden +11) for Rep. Josh Harder (D). https://t.co/38LlglDwPg — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@benrudin @CookPolitical CA22 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new most competitive district in Orange County, CA is #CA45, which is 41% AAPI by voting age population and had a big pro-Trump swing in 2020: 2016: Clinton 54%-41% 2020: Biden 52%-46% It's where Rep. Michelle Steel (R) will probably run. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. https://t.co/9tH6379MTc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Bringing up current BBB for a vote next year may help progressives vent, it brings more hurt than help to D’s in the long-r… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

VA redistricting commission: devolves into 8-8 partisan stalemate, everyone goes home angry. CA redistricting commission: works collaboratively, approves new maps 14-0, pops multiple bottles of bub. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Shorter CA redistricting commission: time to hit the club. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @CookPolitical ratings for non-solid CA seats: #CA03 McClintock (R) Likely R #CA13 Harder (D) Lean D #CA22 Valadao (R) Toss Up #CA27 Garcia (R) Toss Up #CA40 Kim (R) Likely R #CA41 Calvert (R) Likely R #CA45 Steel (R) Toss Up #CA47 Porter (D) Lean D #CA49 Levin (D) Likely D — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: .@CookPolitical subscribers can read our latest #PASen GOP primary analysis from last week’s newsletter: GOPers in the s… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new California map is a good example of why getting a few big redistricting breaks isn't going to save the House for Dems. Yes, it's a great map for Dems and could be 47D-5R in a great Dem year. But in a good GOP year, we might be looking at 41D-11R (virtually no change). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The new California map is a good example of why getting a few big breaks in redistricting isn't going to save the House fo Dems. Yes, it's a great map for Dems and could be 47D-5R in a great Dem year. But in a good GOP year, we might be looking at 41D-11R (virtually no change). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Better news for Rs in AZ: in the latest whiplash, tie-breaking chair Erika Neuberg has sided 3-2 with the GOP commissioners to use this map as new "near-final" map. It split 5-4 Trump in 2020 and would probably split 6R-3D in 2022 (current delegation is 5D-4R). https://t.co/zr5OVpc8Ub — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The CA map is both less competitive and better for Dems than initial drafts (and my priors heading into the process). The main feature of the new map: 18 seats w/ 50%+ Latino voting age populations, up from 13 now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The last big remaining redistricting puzzle pieces: are Dems able to pass a really aggressive gerrymander in NY? And do courts strike down GOP gerrymanders in NC and/or OH? If those break Dems’ way, we’re looking at a wash nationally. If not, result would be a small GOP gain. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s official: CA’s citizen commission votes 14-0 to approve new congressional lines. In a huge win for Dems, all 42 of their incumbents get double digit Biden seats (two are merged due to CA’s seat loss). Meanwhile, five of CA’s 11 GOP incumbents get more vulnerable. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Due to population, CA’s lost seat was always going to come out of LA County. But there are four LA Dem incumbents over the age of *80,* so the chances of a retirement preventing musical chairs were always high. Sure enough, 2/4 announced exits in the past week. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: Already a total of 26 cases in seven states have been filed contending that recently passed congressional and/or legislative map… — PolitiTweet.org