Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChazNuttycombe I’ve worked for 2/3 but still trying to find an in at Inside Elections so I can hit for the cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: after last decade's brawl, AZ's unanimously adopted map is a remarkable achievement. Like the old map, it would've broken 5-4 Biden in 2020. But Rs now have a better shot at a 6R-3D split in 2022. Full analysis live for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/abq4INo1tU — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: a few months ago, most Dems wouldn’t have considered a 9D-3R split out of NJ (down from 10D-2R now) a victory. But it sure looks like one now. My analysis now live for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/CkPH1KQL0Q — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's an excellent, nuanced of Dems' mega-lawyer by @PoliticsReid. He's a partisan combatant responsible for many of Dems' redistricting court triumphs. He's also arguing a 5-1 Biden map in OR is great but a 5-4 Biden map in AZ is a brazen gerrymander. https://t.co/qFZbiShHdP — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hearing increasing concerns from Dem members of Congress that the party’s legal apparatus filing a ton of dead-end lawsuits (for example, AZ map passed w/ unanimous bipartisan support) could diminish their side’s credibility in the suits that actually matter. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@DavidOcamb No argument there. https://t.co/Bj9IPnAgRx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JgRestore Ok I give up here’s a cat selfie https://t.co/YMArY4jKSi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My handle is literally @Redistrict, you didn’t come here for cat selfies. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectProject I've been covering AZ all week (really, all year). A maximal GOP gerrymander there would've been 7-2, which isn't much more than the 6-3 they're likely to win under the new commission map. And, FL redistricting hasn't really even started. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hard to overstate how unusual the NJ proceedings were. The tie-breaker, John Wallace, was being advised by a Dem-leaning Princeton neuroscientist and said he picked Dems' map b/c the GOP map was picked a decade ago. And, even wilder no maps were made public in advance. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As expected, Rep. Michelle Steel (R) ditches the coast and takes her talents to the Little Saigon seat, #CA45 (Biden +6). That leaves Rep. Katie Porter (D) alone and a clear favorite in the coastal #CA47 (Biden +11). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are now four non-Latino Dems poised to run in Latino majority CA seats: Reps. Josh Harder in #CA13, Zoe Lofgren in #CA18, Jim Costa in #CA21 and Mark Takano in #CA39. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The good old "Hey, this is my district! [OTOH, Katie Porter has $14.5 million on hand so I'm going to have to think really long and hard about this]" #CA47 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

They still are. If blue states hadn't embraced redistricting reform more than red states and Dems had the ability to gerrymander CA, CO, NJ, VA & WA, they could easily seize ~10 more seats and would have a much better shot at retaining the majority in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Except Republicans are still ~90% favorites for House control, in my view. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Factoring in CA/AZ/NJ, redistricting is shaping up to be close to a wash. The biggest casualty? Competitive seats. In the 27 states that are complete (or nearly): Trump +5 or more: 106 -> 117 (+10%) Biden +5 or more: 138 -> 144 (+4%) Highly competitive: 34 -> 19 (-44%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That said, there are going to be dozens of narrowly Biden-won seats that are very tenuous for Dems in a rough cycle (esp. in AZ, OH, MI, VA, NV). The biggest threat to Dems' House majority isn't redistricting; it's Biden's approval rating. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

National update: on the current trajectory, there will actually be a few *more* Biden-won congressional districts after redistricting than there are now (224/435). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tfw your mom is the breakout Dem redistricting star of 2021… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tbh the other commissions need to up their step-and-repeat game. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest victim among AZ's nine incumbents: Rep. Tom O'Halleran (D), whose northern #AZ01 (now #AZ02) moves from Biden +2 to Trump +8. But Rep. David Schweikert (R) is also much more vulnerable. His Scottsdale #AZ06 (now #AZ01) moves from Trump +4 to Biden +1. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: AZ commission (two Rs, two Ds, one tie-breaker) votes *unanimously* to approve new congressional map that would've split 5-4 for Biden in 2020. But #AZ01 (Biden +1.4) and #AZ06 (Biden +0.1) are highly tenuous, so GOP has a great opportunity to go 6R-3D in 2022. https://t.co/nlMc20AClx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another winner in this map: #NJ02 Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R), who picks up more of Ocean Co. and moves from Trump +3 to Trump +5, likely nuking any chance Dems have of defeating him. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Democrats have scored a big win w/ CA's new map, w/ five of the state's 11 GOP members getting more vulnerable seats. Need to know who's running where? Our 4,300-word, 52-seat breakdown is live for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/8rou8Derup — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meaningful partisan shifts in this new map: #NJ03 Kim (D) - Trump +0.2 to Biden +14 #NJ05 Gottheimer (D) - Biden +5 to Biden +12 #NJ07 Malinowski (D) - Biden +10 to Biden +4 #NJ11 Sherrill (D) - Biden +7 to Biden +17 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*Mikie, not Millie (damn autocorrect) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @wildstein: Not taking sides on the map, but both parties told me that 79-year-old former Supreme Court Justice John Wallace severely la… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BREAKING: here’s the new NJ congressional map that throws #NJ07 Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) under the bus and shores up Reps. Andy Kim (D) #NJ03, Josh Gottheimer (D) #NJ05 and Millie Sherrill (D) #NJ11 for a likely 9D-3R split. https://t.co/e2js10vDIw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Having flashbacks to 2001, when at 17 I was redistricted from #NJ12 to #NJ07. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @wildstein: Noteworthy: @Redistrict is redistricted. David Wasserman grew up in Montgomery, moved from 7th to 12th. — PolitiTweet.org