Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is still a pretty weird gerrymander to protect #KY06 Rep. Andy Barr (R), even if it doesn’t target #KY03 (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @wildstein: BREAKING: The New Jersey Supreme Court has ordered congressional redistricting tiebreaker John E. Wallace, Jr,. to amplify h… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Early word: KY Republicans *not* planning on dismantling or radically altering #KY03, the only Dem seat in the state, where Rep. John Yarmuth (D) is retiring. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Arriving in @CookPolitical subscribers' inboxes soon: our latest overview of the state of play in redistricting & the House. Some findings may surprise you... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even though some Missouri GOP legislators are pushing for a 7R-1D gerrymander, they likely don’t have the votes necessary for anything other than 6R-2D. That would be a win for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#IL01 Rep. Bobby Rush (D), the only person to ever beat Barack Obama in an election, reportedly becoming the 24th House Dem to forgo reelection in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BrianJCohen Amsterdam is still in #NY20 in this hypothetical. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Interestingly, the new #MI10 that national Rs are trying to convince John James (R) to run in voted for Trump by 0.9% in '20, but James failed to carry it by 0.7% ('20) and 6.9% ('18) in his two Senate bids. If a strong D were to run here, it'd be in a more competitive column. https://t.co/RsV94uYMae — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @npfandos: New York's redistricting commission, which is headed for a partisan split later this morning, has released two final, dueling… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@lxeagle17 No doubt. That's why I wouldn't just apply his 19 pt overperformance from '20 to '22 and call him the favorite. All I'm saying is, I don't think it'd 100% doom him. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, this is roughly what I'd consider the "maximal" realistic Dem gerrymander of NY: 23D-3R w/ 23 Biden 10+ seats and 3 Trump 18+ seats. But, as in MD, no guarantee every Dem incumbent/legislator would be on board - so they could ultimately pursue something less aggressive. https://t.co/MZ0sqI0CqV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Katko didn't just win a Biden +9 seat in 2020. He won reelection by ten points after Dems spent ~$9 million against him in #NY24. I think a Biden +17 seat would be doable for him, esp. in a GOP-leaning year. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm not sure why NY Dem legislators would settle for this map when they could draw a 23D-3R gerrymander w/ all 23 Dem seats at Biden +10 or more. Still a long way to go here - and any real Dem chance at holding the majority probably hinges on it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just got the shapefile uploaded. Dem commissioners' "Plan A" features 5 Trump districts, 3 Biden +3 or less districts and a Biden +17 Syracuse seat that Katko (R) could still win. So, perhaps even 17D-9R - a Dem loss of two and GOP gain of one - if 2022 is a "red wave." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a pretty mild gerrymander that could result in anything from 19D-7R to 22D-4R depending on the year. It also has little chance of being enacted, b/c it's unlikely NY's commission is going to agree on lines (or that NY's Dem legislature would sign off on them). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NC redistricting trial now underway (livestream link below), w/ plaintiffs arguing GOP-drawn maps are partisan outliers. Huge stakes: just as in OH, control of 2-3 congressional seats on the line. https://t.co/Y0OmWPx8Mj — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mcpli: A federal court in Alabama hears arguments this week on a motion to block use of the state’s redrawn congressional map on ground… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Here are 3 things to watch next year: 1) independents; 2) Biden job approve; 3) enthusiasm gap. Right now, Biden/Ds standi… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Georgia becomes the 26th state to complete a new congressional map, and it would convert the delegation from 8R-6D to 9R-5D by pitting Reps. Lucy McBath (D) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D) against each other. This is, of course, pending a Dem-backed lawsuit. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The biggest surprise in this proposal: it doesn't even shore up Wagner that much. It looks like it takes #MO02 from Trump +0.1 to Trump +4.5, which would leave her in jeopardy in the next decade. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It still looks like the most likely Missouri outcome is a 6R-2D map that shores up #MO02 Rep. Ann Wagner (R), rather than an aggressive 7R-1D gerrymander targeting #MO05 Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: in the 9 states where commissions/courts have finalized new maps, the number of close Biden/Trump seats (+5 or less) has dropped from 18 to 16 (-11%). But in the 16 states where partisan politicians have finalized new maps, close seats have plummeted from 19 to 7 (-63%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Three important caveats: - 19 states still aren't included on this chart because they haven't finalized lines - Some included states, like NC/OH, could still be struck down/altered by courts - this chart doesn't show two "safe flips" from Dem to GOP: #GA06 & #NC07. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: Michigan's map just got a radical makeover. Who's at risk? Our analysis of the state of play in all 13 seats is live for subscribers. https://t.co/296nJ9Z4Rk — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@dicktofel The 19 states that haven't finalized new maps yet aren't included in this chart, so it doesn't tell the full House story. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@brent_peabody @CookPolitical Thx, will be fixed shortly. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@MarkMaxwellTV And, Springfield Dems kneecapped their own #IL17 candidates' chances of winning next fall by drawing the district four points sub-optimally. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: @CookPolitical's 2022 House ratings for new districts, now that we're past the halfway point of redistricting. Still a long way to go, but Republicans clear favorites for control. https://t.co/mAdCOtLpRZ https://t.co/2VN5sKWCzd — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perhaps the most laughable claim of 2021 redistricting: NC Republicans insisting they didn't use partisan data to draw maps. If they didn't use partisan data, I didn't use the English language to write this tweet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ElectionBabe: Redistricting is like divorce. The best way to tell if it was fairly adjudicated is if neither side is happy with the fin… — PolitiTweet.org