Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Turns out that retirements are much more problematic for House Dems chances in 2022 than redistricting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And there you have it: TN Republicans to unveil map splitting Nashville into multiple districts to dilute Dem votes. https://t.co/PEzfqxeOMl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm pretty skeptical #C07, a Biden +14 seat, will be competitive next fall. But Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) becomes the 26th House Dem not seeking reelection. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The map shown is actually the current map the GOP passed in 2011. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, here's what #LA02's new incumbent, Rep. Troy Carter (D), told me last fall about the prospect of unpacking his district to create a second Black majority district: https://t.co/GyUjmGMLQr https://t.co/pMhuajFFGm — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AlexIp718 I've been writing about it for over a year, but appreciate all you've been doing to follow these developments. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are more or less two configurations that would achieve this: connecting Baton Rouge to either Shreveport (#LA04, left) or Alexandria/Monroe (#LA05, right). But w/ Edwards and the GOP legislature likely to deadlock, the map's fate could be decided by courts. https://t.co/FCo5nfi0X6 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In Louisiana, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is now on record supporting unpacking the hyper-packed #LA02 (below) to create a second Black majority district. Louisiana is 33% Black, so 2/6 districts would be a proportional share. https://t.co/QWx51iMKdq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A disparity I'm still surprised doesn't loom larger in the voting rights discussion: Black residents make up 29% of the population in AL, LA & SC but have opportunities to elect candidates in just 15% of districts. https://t.co/GyUjmGvaYT — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: analysis of the latest redistricting developments in KY, LA, MO, NH and NC. https://t.co/NoMEtzMqlG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Lots of chatter about what will matter in ‘22 and what won’t. Trump/Jan. 6th are much less important than COVID and economy… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@norwood270 Got it, thanks. Sounds like it's time to uncap the NH House. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In practice, this has created an absolute mess, where the value of non-white votes varies wildly from state to state, w/ the biggest variable being which party happens to control the state. The disparities will continue to widen until SCOTUS/Congress steps in to act (end). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Much of this disparate treatment is a product of courts' and Congress's failure to articulate how lines *should* be drawn fairly. In the past, SCOTUS has said coalition districts (<50% of a single minority) *may* be drawn, but has declined to compel their creation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In CA, the commission pretty much drew more Latino majority districts as its first priority. In NC, Republicans claimed they drew race-blind maps but effectively diluted a historically Black seat, #NC01, from 44% to 41% (though there's a strong chance it's overturned in court). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In TX/GA, Republicans shored up their own suburban seats by purging Dem voters who are predominantly non-white, of many races/ethnicities. In IL/NM, Dems rationalized fairly creative gerrymanders by linking minority communities in far-flung parts of those states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If federal courts unpacked #VA03 to create an additional Black opportunity district in 2016, a consistent interpretation of the VRA would also demand that #AL07, #LA02 and likely #SC06 be unpacked to create second Black majority seats too. We'll see what courts say this time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I think @mcpli's broader point is fair, but the way I'd frame it is that vastly different standards are being applied to non-white communities in TX vs. IL, AL vs. VA, etc. depending on partisan motive, absent a clearer set of VRA rules from SCOTUS/Congress. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thread: yes, the new House map is on track to be slightly more *equitable* (less pro-GOP) than the current one. But keep in mind, it's also on track to feature: - Even fewer competitive seats - Even wider disparities in maps' treatment of non-white voters from state to state — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ok thanks, that solves the mystery. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yesterday, the NH House voted 186-164 to pass a GOP gerrymander targeting Rep. Chris Pappas (D) by flipping #NH01 from Biden +6 (left) to Trump +2 (right). Interestingly, the only Dem to vote "yes" was the former speaker, Steve Shurtleff (6 GOP members voted no). https://t.co/ruD7A1Zncf — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @will_doran: An interesting angle to this developing #ncpol scandal: While Democrats are angry about this revelation, their side is also… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @MeetThePress: WATCH: On the current trajectory, there will be “more Biden-won districts after redistricting than there are now,” @Redis… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're pleased to offer this analysis in front of our paywall. To kick off 2022, @CookPolitical is also offering a free two-week trial subscription, w/ easy cancellation (promo code: STATEOFPLAY122). https://t.co/PVkrx6qqI9 https://t.co/KvrBJrVncl — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We're pleased to offer this analysis in from of our paywall. To kick off 2022, @CookPolitical is also offering a risk-free free two-week trial subscription (promo code: STATEOFPLAY122) for the first time ever. Sign up today. https://t.co/PVkrx6qqI9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The far more dramatic effect of redistricting so far: a continued obliteration of swing seats. The number of single-digit Biden/Trump seats has plummeted from 62 to 46 (-26%), and the number of seats decided by less than 5 pts is down from 39 to 23 (-41%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a positive long-term trade for Dems. However, because Dems *already hold* 11/15 newly Dem-leaning seats, that means only four are pickup opportunities. By contrast, Rs only hold 1/9 newly GOP-leaning seats, giving them twice as many newly ripe targets in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So far, district lines are complete (or awaiting sign-off) in 293 districts, more than two thirds of the House. There are 15 seats that have shifted from GOP-leaning to Dem-leaning @CookPolitical PVIs, and just 9 that have moved the other way. https://t.co/iWedop7P2X — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW @CookPolitical: Republicans are still clear favorites in 2022, but there are poised to be perhaps 3-8 *more* Biden-won seats after redistricting than there are now - creating a House map less biased towards the GOP than the past decade's. https://t.co/PJkHJZ4GGM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not only the 25th House Dem retirement, but Lawrence is currently the only Black member of Congress from Michigan. No guarantee there will be one in 2023 under the new lines. — PolitiTweet.org