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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
There's something so perfect about British journalists venturing to otherworldly Youngstown to seek meaning of 2016. https://t.co/3yoIdWhMeA — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Instead, Trump probably needs combo of turnout spike among already-registered non-college whites & dip among Af-Ams and millennials. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
49M eligible whites weren't registered to vote in '14, per Census (mostly non-college). But no evidence Trump camp/RNC registering them. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Right now, reg voters are steadily getting more diverse. Trump surge would have to come from already reg. whites https://t.c… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The individual data isn't promising either. There are 47M non-college whites who didn't vote in '12 & no reg spike.… https://t.co/d4zbIdcanE — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Not much Trump surge evidence in PA: in past 3 months, net registrations went up 1.8% in Obama counties, just 0.8% in Romney counties. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Also no evidence of a pro-Trump surge in VA. In July/Aug, 52% of net new reg came from FFX, ARL, ALX, LDN, PWC, RIC, HCO (all heavy Dem). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Between new NBC/WSJ national poll & Fox News state polls, someone's wrong. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @mmurraypolitics: In two-way race, Clinton leads Trump by 7pts among both likely and reg voters, per new natl NBC/WSJ poll https://t.co/… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The biggest FL surge has been in Osceola Co., up 12% since '14. That's mostly Puerto Rican Dems. The Villages (pro-Trump), in 3rd, up 9.7% — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Not really seeing pro-Trump surge in FL either. Since '14, net new reg up 4.1% in counties Obama was under 40%. Up 4.7% everywhere else. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Since Trump's launch 6/14/15, whites have accounted for only 59.6% of NC's net new registrants (they're a 69.9% share of all registrants). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If there's a pro-Trump new voter surge, I'm not seeing it in NC. Since 6/14/15, net reg up 6.8% in Obama counties, 5.2% in Romney counties. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Obama won U.S. by 5 million in '12. Eligible Latinos who didn't vote? 11.5 million. Eligible NCWs who didn't vote? 47M, including 24M men. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Point being, these "missing white voters" do exist. So far, I just haven't seen much evidence in reg/other data Trump is activating them. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In '12, Obama won PA by 310k votes. Eligible Latinos who didn't vote: 191k. Eligible non-college whites who didn't vote? 2.6 million. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In '12, Obama won NV by 68k votes. Eligible Latinos who didn't vote: 132k. Eligible non-college whites who didn't vote? 393k. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In '12, Obama won IA by 92k votes. Eligible Latinos who didn't vote: 26k. Eligible non-college whites who didn't vote? 505k. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In '12, Obama won OH by 166k votes. Eligible Latinos who didn't vote: 81k. Eligible non-college whites who didn't vote? 2.2 million. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In '12, Obama won FL by 74k votes. Eligible Latinos who didn't vote: 725k. But eligible non-college whites who didn't vote? 2.5 *million.* — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Taniel: FL (Monmouth): Clinton up 46-41, Rubio up 47-45. Trump/Rubio similar among whites. The difference? Trump -53% among nonwhites… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@jmsummers @emmaroller @Alex_Roarty @jjsimonCNN They've been voting GOP for years and have gotten enormous coverage relative to their size. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@jmsummers @emmaroller @Alex_Roarty @jjsimonCNN It's a powerful piece. All I'd say is, Mingo/McDowell are far from forgotten places...1/2 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Crush of DC reporters seeking WWC vignettes must be best stimulus these WV coal counties have received in years. https://t.co/HIeMBQNvt3 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@freddoso @ryanobles except very doubtful Clinton wins #NE02 while losing NH/NV/IA. States won't behave independently from each other. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
FWIW, I don't see any plausible path to 269-269 tie right now. Much higher (but still small) chance of this: https://t.co/Sl0bw034Be — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @NateSilver538: Clinton more likely to win North Carolina than Ohio, according to our model. https://t.co/hiyqcNmXv7 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Count me skeptical there's any way Trump wins CO but loses NV/NH/VA https://t.co/HDQzaXuNsB — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Um, it also shows Trump winning Vermont... https://t.co/3G45g9VESU — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If Clinton wins, much of GOP base will refuse to believe it & impeachment calls will begin immediately. But same is true of Trump/Dem base. — PolitiTweet.org
