Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Key point here: for the NY lines to change for this fall, less GOP-friendly higher courts would not only need to agree w/ plaintiffs on the merits, but potentially alter the election calendar. Just like OH Rs, NY Dems could be saved by the bell. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Early read on NY lower court judge blocking Dems’ 22D-4R gerrymander: ruling likely to be stayed on appeal, so Dems believe map will remain in place, at least for 2022. Huge stakes here, as a “neutral” map could cost Dems 3-4 seats and erase their nationwide remap gains. https://t.co/qeAjHeWZ5z — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JeffWice: Judge McAllister said he will issue his decision in the NY senate and congressional redistricting case later today or tomorr… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@billburton @Nate_Cohn @EricHolder @marceelias There was undoubtedly impressive work done by many including @kellycward with much foresight, but luck was clearly part of it too (e.g. two Rs filing in a NC SC race a few years ago and giving Dems a 4-3 court majority, Rs unable to coalesce behind maximal gerrymanders, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Despite the headline, this internal poll by Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s (R) top primary rival finds Cawthorn in pretty safe shape for reelection, leading state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R) 52%-20%. Cawthorn only needs to clear 30% to avoid a runoff. https://t.co/0waA9MS62H — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Louisiana becomes the 40th state to complete congressional redistricting (if you count Ohio's GOP map), with GOP legislators overriding Gov. Edwards (D) veto to enact a 5R-1D map maintaining just one Black majority seat. Lawsuit filed, but after Alabama, it's a long shot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW: owing to court decisions in Maryland & Ohio, Democrats are now on track to net 1-2 House seats nationally from redistricting alone, down from 4-5 seats in @CookPolitical's previous estimate. In other words, back to a very modest gain. https://t.co/2BVbzA69aS https://t.co/4GJcuYcyUq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New from me at @CookPolitical: Maryland & Ohio rulings brighten GOP's redistricting outlook. https://t.co/2BVbzA69aS — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm seeing a lot of news outlets depict Ohio's GOP-enacted map as giving Rs an advantage in at least 10 of 15 seats, but that understates the gerrymander. There are 10 solid R seats, two solid D seats and three competitive seats. There's a real chance of a 13R-2D rout in 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We'll have to wait until April to see how much advantage FL's next congressional map gives to Republicans. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ProPoliticsPod: Latest episode live w/Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict). Talking Dave's path to be a Sr Editor w/@CookPolitical, his approac… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This schedule would seem to preclude a legal challenge to Ohio’s GOP map before the May primary, paving the way for a map as lopsided as 13R-2D to be used for the 2022 elections - unless a federal court intervenes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And there you have it: MD Dems unveil a cleaner-looking 7D-1R map that seeks to save #MD06 Rep. David Trone (D). Will MD courts allow it? Stay tuned. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @ProPoliticsPod: New episode Tues w/Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) of @CookPolitical...talking his path to being a race rating wunderkind,… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Maryland: Rs badly want two safe seats, an Eastern Shore #MD01 and a western #MD06 (left). But I'd expect Dems to try to save their current 7D-1R advantage - and Rep. David Trone (D) - w/ something more like the example on the right. We'll see what MD courts say. https://t.co/QayjW4yvIx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The Democrat most at risk in any court-ordered redraw: Rep. David Trone (D), whose heavily gerrymandered #MD06 would revert to a GOP-leaning western MD seat under most maximally compact proposals (including the Hogan commission's). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: a Maryland court has struck down Democrats' 7D-1C-0R map as an illegal partisan gerrymander, the first such state-level victory in the GOP's direction. If replaced w/ a neutral map, this could end up costing Dems 1-2 seats. https://t.co/ceMsDlJfzB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because a #TX34 special election would be held under the old lines (Biden +4) instead of the new lines (Biden +15), there's a good chance Republican Mayra Flores would win a few months of Vela's unexpired term. But she could simultaneously lose the race for the next full term. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Spoiler alert: no. https://t.co/N7W0f6fQdJ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Presumably a #TX34 special election would take place in conjunction w/ the November general, since the primary has already happened. #TX15 Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D), who is moving over to #TX34, is the favorite for the full term. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @heatherscope: NEW: Rep. Filemon Vela will resign from Congress in coming weeks to take a position at Akin Gump, I’m told — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How much trouble is Section 2 of the VRA in? A conservative WI Supreme Court justice cast a deciding vote to enact a plan w/ an additional Black majority legislative seat. On a long shot appeal, SCOTUS used shadow docket to rule it an improper use of race. Uncharted territory. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@rickhasen If it were a purely partisan body, it wouldn't have let NC/PA court maps stand for the 2022 cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Needless to say, the Supreme Court's rather selective application of the Purcell principle (no last-minute changes to election rules) in AL vs. WI won't do anything to diminish perceptions it's become a partisan body. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind that this doesn't apply to the congressional map the WI Supreme Court adopted (not that that map helps Dems much). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of course, this is an internal poll, and Mooney's internals have consistently shown him leaning. But the fact Trump's endorsement hasn't put this race away - against an R who voted for a 1/6 investigation and the bipartisan infra. package - is meaningful. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New: Rep. David McKinley's (R) campaign is out w/ a new poll showing him up 46%-39% over Trump-endorsed Rep. Alex Mooney (R) in #WV02. If the Trump-endorsed R in *West Virginia* doesn't win, would be a real sign of waning influence in GOP primaries. https://t.co/yP4teA8PcW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Gov. Sununu's proposal would reduce #NH01 from Biden +6 to Biden +4.4 (instead of the Trump +2 version passed by legislative Rs), giving Rep. Chris Pappas (D) a better chance at winning reelection. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, there it is... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

OHIO: I'm told there's a strong likelihood plaintiffs will file a new lawsuit against the GOP's latest congressional map before the end of the day, per the OH Supreme Court's order Friday. Republicans are hoping courts will say the clock has run out on a challenge. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org