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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
BTW, Dems have strong '18 pickup opportunities on most of these "extreme" maps. These R maps were drawn in 2011. No… https://t.co/3vOv854qUO — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Here's an exercise: what % of 2018 House elections will be held in states w/ "extreme" GOP gerrymanders still in pl… https://t.co/qsPeGtmKdo
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
It's possible to make the case other states are "mild" GOP gerrymanders. But there are also a few states w/ Dem ger… https://t.co/7OJ6pAQdtD — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Here's an exercise: what % of 2018 House elections will be held in states w/ "extreme" GOP gerrymanders still in pl… https://t.co/qsPeGtmKdo — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
No. Dems' problem is that they're winning a few urban districts by 60%-70% and losing many more suburban seats by s… https://t.co/8rMvRieaQ7 — PolitiTweet.org
Dylan Doppelt @DylanDoppelt
I might be missing something but doesn't the fact that House districts have to have approximately the same populati… https://t.co/nSkIKRHKji
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Lastly, I'm well aware we've debated this a million times & I'll be criticized/ratio'd for arguing gerrymandering's… https://t.co/CxdnOJPCPU — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
3) In the past 3 elections, Dems have won ~4% fewer seats than votes. We estimate Dems would need to win House popu… https://t.co/CiN0GsSUGS — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
2) It isn't so much "technology and data-fueled 21st century gerrymandering" that's enhanced the effectiveness of p… https://t.co/3G0kH1zA4D — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
1) It's always misleading to cite "extreme gerrymandering" as an obstacle to Dems retaking House without citing the… https://t.co/g3MAhri2Mj — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A few thoughts on this by @mcpli & @lauraroyden, whose work I respect & frequently rely on... https://t.co/cvCXaRt2iu — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @amyewalter: With PA-06 moving from Toss-Up to Likely D, there are now 8 R-held seats in Lean-Likely D. And another 21 R-held seats in T… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
#PA06 will be moving from Toss Up to Likely Dem at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/QxTSoCtVVZ — PolitiTweet.org
Kasie Hunt @kasie
BREAKING: Rep. Ryan Costello, R-Pa., will withdraw from his congressional race, he tells me. More soon @KasieDC
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If this happens (as we hinted in @CookPolitical yesterday), #PA06 could become a true lost cause for GOP. https://t.co/TXJdYcEyqC — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Read @Amyewalter's latest: Deja Vu All Over Again. Health Care Takes Center Stage in 2018 Campaigns https://t.co/L3Y6jGq5IO — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If he wins the Dem primary, he might attract some Rs & repel many Ds. If he loses the primary to a very liberal can… https://t.co/w898Do4C6i — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Here's an example: Dems should have a golden opportunity to pick up Rep. Charlie Dent (R)'s open seat in #PA07 (D+1… https://t.co/2589kYFobs — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
At the moment, there are all kinds of fancy models flying around projecting out the relationship b/t national polls… https://t.co/9SLnMmQyWp — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The only path left for GOP to keep its House majority involves some combo of these two things: a) Generic ballot d… https://t.co/gJItAvvRP9 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@SeanTrende So are parts of VA. But we didn't see Dems massively overperform in HoD races in the far southwest of VA, for example. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
True of congressional specials, of which we don't have a very large data set. Also true that the most staggering De… https://t.co/0yxD5eRSjp — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's not any correlation between turnout and how well Democrats are doing in special elections. They're overperf… https://t.co/fM1uqssf7m
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Taken together, off-year results suggest: a) Dems enjoy an intensity gap that looks like '10/'14 in reverse b) Dem… https://t.co/m9z4a3GY3K — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
But congressional specials have been powerful indicators too: they've been federal, high $$ fights w/ generally awf… https://t.co/YtGsyxWu7F — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
IMHO, the most telling off-year results for 11/18 purposes have been VA's HoD races, which featured: a) GOP incumb… https://t.co/m0UPoO4g9z — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@NateSilver538 @SeanTrende @Barnes_Law @henryolsenEPPC @ForecasterEnten @Nate_Cohn @djjohnso @Peoples_Pundit… https://t.co/3u0hKn4oJb — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@NateSilver538 @SeanTrende @Barnes_Law @henryolsenEPPC @ForecasterEnten @Nate_Cohn @djjohnso @Peoples_Pundit… https://t.co/UHjiHPVwkg — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Breaking: Sean Casten (D) takes lead over Kelly Mazeski (D) by 616 votes in #IL06 primary. Looking like it'll be Ca… https://t.co/etjVO5Swsc — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This could be a mild setback for Dems' chances of defeating Rep. Peter Roskam (R) in #IL06, a CD that voted for Cli… https://t.co/w4T7wv5lZd — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
DuPage Co. appears to have taken a break from counting, but there could easily be another 5-10k votes left to count… https://t.co/PtA7cide78 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If both #IL03 Newman (D) and #IL06 Mazeski (D) lose their primaries, it would be a rough night in the Chicago burbs… https://t.co/bCw8238xnZ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Mazeski (D) lead over Casten (D) falls to just 260 votes w/ 91 DuPage precincts left to count. Casten increasingly… https://t.co/yGPN00WdRf — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Mazeski (D) lead down to 683 votes w/ 103 DuPage precincts left to go in #IL06. — PolitiTweet.org
