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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The average Dem overperformance vs. Cook PVI in the 7 special elections so far: 9%. Tipirneni currently overperform… https://t.co/YcMAlLQccO — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Early votes in #AZ08 (likely 3/4 of all ballots): Debbie Lesko (R) 82,294 (53%) Hiral Tipirneni (D) 73,188 (47%)… https://t.co/10Qw5fx8mJ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Breaking: Lesko leads 53%-47% in early ballots. #AZ08 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @ForecasterEnten: Our hour long national nightmare is almost over. Thanks all for being here on what is probably going to be the most bo… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In other words, the very 1st data batch *should* be enough to project #AZ08 result. https://t.co/vQEZY9vNzI — PolitiTweet.org
Tom Bonier @tbonier
A tip for following AZ08 results from home: most of the votes were cast before election day, and should be counted… https://t.co/H5UzmE6qCp
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @databyler: If you want to know why Arizona is less red than it's been in the past, look at that big blue expanding blob in the middle o… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: TX Gov. Greg Abbott proclaims 6/30 special election to fill resigned Rep. Blake Farenthold (R)'s #TX27. TX spe… https://t.co/Le0gLqyoSG — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Good thread. The mail component is the fundamental point I think we've both tried to stress. And it wouldn't surpri… https://t.co/CHqx3C4JTb — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
The mere fact that it's a mail election, however, does cut against the possibility of a particularly strong Democra… https://t.co/EiXaXGi7FE
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: PA-18 special vote history data is in. Some preliminary cuts: The electorate was D+4 by party registration, 48 to 44, appx t… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Think of #AZ08 this way: its @CookPolitical PVI score is R+13. #PA18 is R+11, AL is R+14. In other words, Hiral Tip… https://t.co/nJNeE8FQLA — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Because mail ballots make up an overwhelming share of the vote in #AZ08 (maybe 80%) whereas they're tiny shares of… https://t.co/e04iZJL7FC — PolitiTweet.org
Joseph Kauffman @jkauffman23
@Redistrict I completely agree that Ds will very likely lose, but why are early voting numbers more reliable now th… https://t.co/8Spuux8cG8
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A GOP loss in #AZ08 would be genuinely shocking. That said, a good showing for Hiral Tipirneni (D) might be 43%+. T… https://t.co/wBzqtQmz3e — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Happy #AZ08 Election Day! Reminder to people hyping this as a coin flip: Rs have a 17% voter reg advantage & lead b… https://t.co/GJcAyUqUMy — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Breaking: #CO05 Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) thrown off GOP primary ballot, creating yet another R open seat. But Lamborn… https://t.co/p7s3sZyYj2 — PolitiTweet.org
Rob McCallum @rwmccallum
@CoSupremeCourt just came down with an opinion in 18SA176, Kuhn v. Williams—Election Law. Therefore, the supreme c… https://t.co/frD978epBR
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The real suspense in #AZ08: who is the 113 year old Dem voter? https://t.co/9uszLnAtBO — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Emerson radically changes methodology *between polls* to better reflect #AZ08 early vote, finds Debbie Lesko (R) ha… https://t.co/L97EckqxXy — PolitiTweet.org
Emerson Polling @EmersonPolling
🗳️ FINAL POLL 🗳️ #Republicans pull ahead in #AZ08 but still within margin of error 📻 DETAILS: https://t.co/PHH2WAvDQW
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@ForecasterEnten Prof. Kimball admits in the clip that Emerson changed its methodology between polls to better inco… https://t.co/fVjyW2dnEq — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
That's likely just way too big a gap for Dems to make up w/ crossovers & Election Day (4/24). In fact, 39% of all R… https://t.co/ARLrJiG7b0 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New #AZ08 update: 151k ballots cast (likely ~70% of total). R registrants out-voting Ds 49%-28%. Median voter age:… https://t.co/HLRSuxcray — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Former top House GOP aide 👇 https://t.co/2qcpLFrUoK — PolitiTweet.org
Michael Steel @michael_steel
This stat from @Redistrict really worries me: "Out of the 65 GOP incumbents rated as less than "Solid," 49 were fi… https://t.co/JKzSBHQsT0
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Of the 199 House Rs running for reelection, only *one*: 1) took <55% in '16, 2) sits in an R+5 or less district 3)… https://t.co/yjjx1JnThM — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New at @CookPolitical: Who's most vulnerable to a wave? We've updated our Risk Factors for 2018 House GOP Incumbent… https://t.co/XCuRodirtW — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @ForecasterEnten: Special elections going Democrats' way. More House races getting pushed into their column by nonpartisan experts... an… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@BradMossEsq Sample is totally wrong...64% college+ when eligible population is 28%. Median age 55 when actual so far is 67. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
#AZ08's voter reg breakdown: 41% R, 24% D, 35% Other. Votes cast so far (144k): 49% R, 28% D, 23% Other. If anythin… https://t.co/uZFZAcD1OH — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
What's a good showing for Hiral Tipirneni (D) in #AZ08 on Tuesday? Probably 43%-47%. Really anything above ~41% in… https://t.co/Blb3qozbpH — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Emerson Polling memo: "Statistical Tie in #AZ08, Dems Positioned for Surprise Upset in the Desert." Reality check:… https://t.co/DVGujQjL79 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New at @CookPolitical: 7 more races move towards Democrats following latest polls/fundraising reports. Full ratings… https://t.co/fMW1CBW1s3 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@afshop All years using current locations. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Stay tuned to @CookPolitical this morning for 7 House rating changes in light of new FEC reports. — PolitiTweet.org
