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Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New at @CookPolitical: House Democrats Risk Disaster in California's June Primaries https://t.co/AaNOIcqs6R — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This isn't going to be pretty. #FL09 https://t.co/Sp7vLWYYgc — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Another reason #OH12 special is so dangerous for Rs: 40% of residents 25+ have a college degree, by far the highest… https://t.co/2iohesSIIx — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Excellent story on a poorly kept secret of 2011 remap (in PA & elsewhere). https://t.co/vY5GgI7o4u via @phillydotcom — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Keep in mind: these 3 seats are only ~5% of the battlefield of R seats at risk, but if two Rs advance to November,… https://t.co/GPrxEL8iT5 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Dems have a real problem w/ 2 competitive Rs in #CA48 (Rohrabacher) & potential for trouble in #CA39 (Royce) & #CA49 (Issa) open seats. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The closer we get to CA's 6/5 primary, the more I'm convinced: high odds Dems botch/get "locked out" of *at least*… https://t.co/KSJaWezVou — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@NateSilver538 @NickRiccardi Do I dare ask you about a turnout bonus? ;) — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If you were to apply Dems' average overperformance in 7 House specials so far this cycle to the entire House in Nov… https://t.co/KLNifbQL1I — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New @CookPolitical: #OH12 special election (8/7) to fill GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi's vacant seat moves from Lean R to Tos… https://t.co/amcEtkaXF7 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New @CookPolitical: #OH12 special election (8/7) to fill GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi's vacant seat moves from Lean R to Toss Up. https://t.co/QasdL9L9j7 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@StuPolitics Yes, was referring to possibility of 45+ seat gain and huge, young Dem freshman class more than 290+ seats. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @amyewalter: If the Dems are doing so great, why don't they have a bigger lead on the generic ballot? Here's my attempt to explain it.… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Barnes_Law @CookPolitical An R+13 PVI means a GOP candidate should get 63% in a neutral environment. Lesko got 52%… https://t.co/5U7uAELYje — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
There's a lot of talk about what could get in Dems' way between now and Nov., but less about how much worse things… https://t.co/42GNywdIdQ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Jonatha99037619 Emerson was quite wrong that Dems were headed for a "surprise upset in the desert." The EV never s… https://t.co/xrmdMRs3ph — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Next big problem for Rs: #OH12 special on 8/7. 1/3 of the vote is Franklin Co. (Columbus) & Trump lost that area by… https://t.co/Ib5oZ1vSLZ — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Not an unreasonable guess as to how registrants broke down. FWIW, I still believe the 21% R early vote edge was a m… https://t.co/GgJU7aoSIb — PolitiTweet.org
Geoffrey Skelley @geoffreyvs
Based on the early vote breakdown by party ID for #AZ08, a guess might be the following to get a GOP edge of 52.9-4… https://t.co/igNlefrLGI
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Lesko (R)'s margin is now smaller than Joe Arpaio (R)'s was when he carried #AZ08 by 5.0% while losing Maricopa Cou… https://t.co/5LtLbyt60q — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New batch of #AZ08 drop-off ballots counted today: Tipirneni (D) 4,453 Lesko (R) 4,109 That brings Lesko's margin… https://t.co/UfiirtZ4pt — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If the only data point you had to go on was last night's #AZ08 result, you'd think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
If you discard #ALSEN as a special case, Dems' House overperformances have been remarkably consistent: all in the 6… https://t.co/G0yTPLrd01 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To win the House, Dems need an average overperformance of 4% vs. @CookPolitical PVI. Here's their overperformance i… https://t.co/rQp9g3LnwV — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New batch of 9k #AZ08 votes just in: Tipirneni (D) 4,588 Lesko (R) 4,408 It's all about margin now. Down to 5.2%. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One seat that should newly worry House GOP is Rep. Dave Schweikert (R)'s #AZ06, which voted for Trump by just 9.9% (vs. 20.7% in #AZ08). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @SteveKornacki: First batch of same day: Tiperneni (D) 1,073 55% Lesko (R) 878 45% Remember Tiperneni needs 63% of what's left. We thin… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
There are 147 GOP-held House seats less Republican than #AZ08. It's time to start rethinking how many of those are truly safe in November. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In '16, Joe Arpaio (R) carried #AZ08 by 5.0% despite losing his job by 11% county-wide. It's possible Debbie Lesko… https://t.co/YQK1VQFFzY — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In a special with relatively unremarkable candidates in an R+13 seat, Dems appear to have hit at least 47%. Only 92… https://t.co/NdrYVgC0Ns — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Dems are still extremely unlikely to capture #AZ08 tonight. But Hiral Tipirneni (D)'s 47%+ showing is absolutely co… https://t.co/Y3SZrX2duM — PolitiTweet.org
