Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #NC01, GOP strategists have been worried about the prospect of Cawthorn-endorsed Sandy Smith (R) winning the primary after two ex-husbands alleged spousal abuse/domestic violence. But, she's currently leading her primary 35%-28% - a possible gift to Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

#NC11 update: Edwards (R) leads Cawthorn (R) 38%-27%, but Edwards's best vote troves - the early votes in his Buncombe/Henderson/Transylvania state senate district - are entirely reporting. So this thing is going to tighten. And, it's probably not going to a runoff. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In open #NC04, state Sen. Valerie Foushee (D) wins the Dem primary to succeed retiring Rep. David Price (D), defeating Nida Allam (D) and Clay Aiken (D). @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #NC11, Jasmine Beach-Ferrara (D) wins the Dem primary and will face either state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R) or Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) in the fall. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #KY03, state Sen. Morgan McGarvey (D) defeats state Rep. Attica Scott (D) in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Yarmuth (D). @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In open #NC01, state Sen. Don Davis (D) wins the Dem primary after being endorsed by retiring Rep. G.K. Butterfield (D). On GOP side, only question is whether 2020 nominee Sandy Smith (R) will avoid a runoff. @CookPolitical November rating: Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In the new suburban Raleigh #NC13, state Sen. Wiley Nickel (D) wins the Dem primary. On GOP side, only question is whether Trump-endorsed Bo Hines (R) will avoid a runoff. @CookPolitical November rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #NC14, state Sen. Jeff Jackson (D) wins the Dem primary for a new Charlotte area seat. @CookPolitical rating: Solid D, but this seat could be dismantled by Republicans before 2024. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #NC11, state Sen. Chuck Edwards (R) leads Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) 38%-27% in the early vote w/ a huge lead in Asheville. But we're going to have to wait for EDay votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Rep. Ted Budd (R) wins the GOP primary for #NCSEN and will face Cheri Beasley (D) in the fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Election rules matter: if NC’s primary runoff threshold were 50% or even 40%, #NC11 Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R) would be the underdog for renomination. Because it’s just 30%, he enters tonight the slight favorite. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fair warning for Oregon results tonight. #OR05 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A good @markzbarabak dispatch from Oregon, where it looks increasingly likely Blue Dog Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) will lose his primary to progressive Jamie McLeod-Skinner (D) today. #OR05 https://t.co/2Q0x5RO2oa — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just when you thought things couldn’t get tougher for the DCCC, its chair could be locked in a nasty member vs. member primary until late August. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) says he'd run in #NY12, putting him on a collision course with Rep. Carolyn Maloney (D) after all. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In other words, on a partisan basis this proposal is quite similar to the current map (it's def more competitive, and if you squint hard enough maybe it's a tad better for Ds long-term). But it's still a far cry from the struck-down Dem gerrymander. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you break NY down by double digit Biden seats, Trump seats and single digit Biden seats (how I'd very roughly define the competitive "strike zone" this fall), you'd get: Current map: 17D-7R-3C Dems' struck map: 20D-4R-2C Special master proposal: 16D-5R-5C https://t.co/aAo8dYow3B — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This thread is 100% correct that it depends how you frame it. Were there worse outcomes for Dems in a special master map? Absolutely. Dems can take solace that this proposal doesn't "strand" many blue areas (i.e. putting Ithaca, Binghamton or Utica in deep red seats). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm skeptical we'll see this race happen. Nadler's best prospect, if he chooses to run again, would still be in #NY10, which keeps Lower Manhattan and Borough Park and has most of his current constituents. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

An update: Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) now lives in White Plains (not South Nyack), which would put him on a collision course with Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D) in the proposed #NY16. Have to imagine double-bunking two adjacent Black progressives is going to come up in public comments... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not unexpected, but this NY map is pretty bad news for Democrats. With so many competitive seats, it's not hard to envision a 16D-10R (or even 15D-11R) split on a great GOP night, which is a far cry from the 22D-4R rout Dems initially tried to gerrymander. https://t.co/oIZf9JZ5lL — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow. This would put the DCCC chair on a collision course vs. progressive Rep. Mondaire Jones (D) in the new #NY17 (Biden +10). https://t.co/bdu6NMXUdN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R) gets to keep a redder #NY11 (Trump +3), which makes her the clear favorite in a rematch vs. Max Rose (D). Rep. Tom Suozzi's (D) open #NY03 now at serious risk for Dems (Biden +6), and Rep. John Katko's (R) open #NY22 more holdable for Rs (Biden +7). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few initial thoughts: Reps. Mondaire Jones (D) and Sean Patrick Maloney (D) are thrown into the same district, #NY17 (Biden +10), though Maloney would likely keep running in #NY18 (Biden +8). Delgado open seat, #NY19, goes to Ithaca and moves from Biden +2 to Biden +5. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BREAKING: the new NY map proposed by court-appointed special master Jonathan Cervas leans into competitiveness. As opposed to the struck 22D-4R gerrymander, this map is more like 15D-5R and six highly competitive seats (at least for 2022). https://t.co/Q08dKiQKSn — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: Tomorrow is primary day in Idaho, Kentucky, North Carolina, Oregon and Pennsylvania. Read @Redistrict's overview on the… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We should be getting our first look at the new NY congressional map drawn by a court-appointed special master today, per @JeffWice and others. It’s the final major puzzle piece of 2022 redistricting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nathanlgonzales: I don't know what disqualifies someone from public office anymore. And that makes me hesitant to declare who can and c… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@DrewSav The current #NH02 is Biden +9. In this environment, that's...highly competitive. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This map would polarize the state's two seats: #NH01 from Biden +6 to +1 and #NH02 from Biden +9 to +14, potentially depriving GOP of winning #NH02. Will Gov. Chris Sununu (R) sign in? We'll find out. — PolitiTweet.org