Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Had Abrams run for Senate, little reason to think outcome would be much different than '18 Gov (GA's pro-D demog change probably offset by return of casual Trump voters in '20). Plus, congrats, prize would be Senate membership that's been such an awesome nat'l launchpad lately. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why Stacey Abrams has more POTUS upside (imo): 1) Two dominant D groups, AAs & suburban women, still totally up for grabs 2) Still no Dem contenders from the South (30% of delegates) 3) Personal connection to major motivating issue for Ds: voting rights https://t.co/gvE26U6EYo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: Trend Watch: House Rs now have Asian-American women running in 3 Orange County seats #CA48: OC Supervisor Michelle Steel… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Excited to welcome a true legend to @UChiPolitics this afternoon. Students can sign up here: https://t.co/E63fkdHvwY https://t.co/7tWlb5RSdt — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to @uchicagogop for hosting me at your meeting the other night. (also looking forward to visiting @uchidemocrats in a few weeks!) https://t.co/QaCwX80pAq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@danpolovina Kind of my job — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@bayofarizona Totally wrong on both counts — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Disclaimer: this isn’t an appraisal on the fairness/virtuosity of any map or a rebuttal to anything. It’s purely a political analysis of the MI situation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The legislative maps, on the other hand, are another story. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sorry, new safely R #MI08 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Even if everything went right for Dems in 2020 under this kind of map, they'd probably just retain the 7-7 split they earned under the R gerrymander in 2018. That in itself would qualify as a win, but not a total game-changer. /end — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Long story short, this kind of "un-gerrymandered" remedial map could ease reelection paths for some Dems, but make life more difficult for others. And it wouldn't necessarily create new pickup opportunities for Dems. 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BUT, Levin would face a choice between running vs. Stevens in a safely Dem #MI11 or running in a very competitive Macomb-centric #MI09. He'd likely run in #MI09, but given Macomb's trendline Rs could be competitive there. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this scenario, Slotkin's home in Holly (northern Oakland) would get drawn into a new safely R #MI11. She'd likely move west to run in a more Lansing-centric district that's slightly more Democratic than her current one. Arguably positive for her. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In this hypothetical remedial map, Stevens gets a safe Dem #MI11 in Oakland County and #MI12 Dingell keeps a safe Dem #MI12 in Ann Arbor/suburban Wayne Co. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The problem for Dems is: once you draw two AA-majority Detroit districts, there are four suburban Dem incumbents vying for the limited blue turf in the suburbs: #MI08 Slotkin, #MI09 Levin, #MI11 Stevens, #MI12 Dingell. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The problem for Dems is: once you draw two AA-majority Detroit districts, there are four suburban Dem incumbents vying for the limited blue turf in the suburbs: #MI08 Slotkin, #MI09 Levin, #MI11 Stevens, #MI12 Dingell. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The problem for Dems is: once you draw two AA-majority Detroit districts, there are four suburban Dem incumbents vying for the limited blue turf in the suburbs: #MI08 Slotkin, #MI09 Levin, #MI11 Stevens, #MI12 Dingell. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's a quick illustration of why striking down MI's GOP gerrymander might not necessarily boost House Dems. Take this pretty compact map for example 1/ https://t.co/VDocjQ3tIp — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@rmenhen There would’ve been ways to combine Lansing/Flint without violating MI’s county “rule.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also worth noting that MI Republicans could have drawn an even more effective/aggressive gerrymander in 2011, like a 10-4 map that would have packed Lansing & Flint in the same district (instead of the 9-5 map that backslid to 7-7 in 2018). https://t.co/0i7bUIKITA — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn It would have been fairly straightforward for Republicans to draw one safe R seat in 2011 instead of two marginally R seats in the Detroit burbs. Instead they sliced the 8th & 11th pretty thin and lost both in 2018. Was it worth it? Maybe, maybe not. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn It’s hard to imagine *both* of them getting worse for Dems, especially if Slotkin gets a more Lansing-centric district that drops northern Oakland/Livingston. But one of them could get tougher; there’s only so much D turf to go around. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn If, for example, Andy Levin were to get more of Oakland and Stevens were pushed north into more rural Oakland precincts, assuming Pontiac and Southfield stay in an AA majority district. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: it's not clear redrawing/replacing MI's GOP gerrymander would boost Dems there in 2020. In 2018, the lines in suburban Detroit backfired on Rs & helped elect Slotkin (D) in #MI08 & Stevens (D) in #MI11. Their seats could get better, but they could also get worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @kylegriffin1: LANSING, Mich. (AP) -- Federal judges say Michigan congressional, legislative districts unconstitutionally gerrymandered;… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Today's Democratic Party is pretty evenly divided, no matter how you measure it--lib/mod, old/young, white/nonwhite, col/no… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @DaviSusan: One of the biggest structural challenges for Biden is that the most experienced candidates regularly lose the presidential p… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @StolpWSOC9: NEW: @NCSBE tells @wsoctv that the first voter at early voting in Bladen County this morning was McCrae Dowless. #NC09 #ncp… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Per new Census data, 12.9 million eligible women w/ degrees didn't vote in 2018. Meanwhile, *41.8 million* men without degrees stayed home. Upside: Trump. — PolitiTweet.org