Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @nathanlgonzales: I'm not convinced the country wants to come together. What evidence is there that progressives/liberals want anything… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JHagner: Thread alert: There are two really important audiences for the 2020 elections: people who voted for Trump in 2016 but might no… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@IanSams Hey Ian- I cringed too when reading this quote as it didn't come across at all as intended re: Harris/Warren. Earlier today, I expressed my concerns to John that it lacked important context from our phone call. Will try to do better moving forward. Dave — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: What's interesting with Harris is that black Democrats tend to be more moderate than white ones. (Corrolary: the left is… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Had so much fun presenting today at @HarvardCGA’s “The Geography of Redistricting.” Thanks to my fellow gerrymandering nerds for full day of engaging & informative sessions! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

SCOTUS will be final arbiter for MI, OH & others. Holds huge implications for '20 races, though worth noting major reforms already poised in MI/OH for '21 remap. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@amyewalter @mcpli Subtracting FL/NC/PA/VA would get you to 366, but there were some FL/VA districts that didn’t change (12? I think), so 378. But if MI gets replaced, could be 364? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind that Bernie is the only other candidate besides Biden currently in position to hit critical 15% thresholds in most places - but w/ a crowded field, I could see him struggling to get “on the board” in a few heavily AA districts with lots of delegates. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Good reminder re: early CW — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This rationale didn't work so well for Dems in '16 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Who do I think *is* Dems' most electable 2020 candidate? Hint: she may or may not be running. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Long story short: yes, I think Biden has a very good chance to become the Dem nominee, perhaps even after a floor fight in Milwaukee. But no, at the moment I don't consider him Dems' most electable candidate vs. Trump in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

After all, Dems' underperformance in MI/PA/WI/FL/NC in '16 wasn't just about working-class whites. It was also about Clinton's failure to mobilize the Obama coalition at '08/'12 turnout rates, particularly young & African-American voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sure, Biden will win just about all the suburban Rs Trump has alienated & converted to Indies/Ds in the last few years. Just about any 2020 Dem would. But ask yourself: will young voters, particularly those of color, be jazzed enough about Biden to bring 3 friends along to polls? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What's more, many Dems banking on Biden's electability are underestimating Trump's ability to weaponize social media/other platforms to exploit Biden's baggage & open rifts in Dem coalition over touching/busing/Anita Hill/ideology/you name it, depressing base turnout a la '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

However, I'd argue Biden's liabilities in a *general election* vs. Trump are more serious than a lot of Dem voters seem to think. For starters, as @NateSilver538 pointed out, check out voters' appetite for a candidate who's 75+: https://t.co/aUYm6img8Z — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden also benefits from Dem voters' *perception* that he is the most electable candidate in the field. Like, by far. For a deep dive on this, make sure to read @BaseBallot's piece from last week & check out 2nd chart down: https://t.co/XVKGwmm7nV https://t.co/tPsSu5hbHD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden also benefits from a Dem primary electorate that's older, less white & more moderate than the left-leaners dominating the convo on this & other sites. I keep coming back to this Jan. @pewresearch finding that 53% of Dems/leaners want party to move in more mod direction: https://t.co/5j3eaMuODE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

He's also got a considerable regional head start in the South, thanks to his huge early advantage with African-American voters (name ID + Obama nostalgia) & because there are no candidates from the region (unless you count TX). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, Biden is the best-positioned candidate in a field of record-breaking size to hit 15% thresholds virtually *everywhere,* which is a really underrated advantage when it comes to building a delegate lead. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beginning to think the CW that "Joe Biden would be such a great general election candidate for Dems if only he could make it past the primaries" might actually have it a bit backwards. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: This is sort of a "fun" chart if we're talking about electability. A LOT of voters have reservations about voting for so… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(continued) 11. Macomb Co.: R+1 12. Ann Arbor/Southgate: D+11 13. Detroit/Dearborn (51% AA): D+30 14. Detroit/Southfield (54% AA): D+30 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rundown of hypothetical @CookPolitical PVIs: 1. UP/Traverse City: R+10 2. Holland/Muskegon: R+8 3. Grand Rapids: R+8 4. Lansing: EVEN 5. Flint/Saginaw: D+4 6. Kalamazoo: R+4 7. Jackson/Monroe: R+7 8. Detroit exurbs: R+12 9. Oakland Co.: D+5 10. Bay City/Thumb: R+12... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Alright, this is my best shot at a compact Michigan map that splits as few counties/municipalities as possible while still preserving two AA-majority districts. Mapping geeks: what's yours? https://t.co/VFn0QZd9Cx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not sure these recruitment "fails" will be as consequential as some are making them out to be, but the fact 18% of the country elects a majority of the Senate is the bigger issue here. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, using raw vote margins, not %s. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To be clear, using margins at the county level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In 2018, there were Dem statewide candidates who banked bigger margins in: - Madison than Milwaukee - Nashville than Memphis - Ithaca than Syracuse - Dakota Co. (Twin Cities burbs) than Duluth Wasn't typical in the past & tells you a lot about where the party is headed. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thanks to the one and only Ragin’ Cajun ⁦@JamesCarville⁩ for visiting our seminar at ⁦@UChiPolitics⁩ this week. A class our students won’t ever forget! https://t.co/8xRzfPmKWb — PolitiTweet.org