Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: Elizabeth Warren is on the move. How will we know if she's able to sustain the momentum? 1) has a big 2nd Q report (to make… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For example, if this were the actual vote breakdown in the FL primary, Biden would win nearly all of the state’s delegates w/ 41% of the vote. https://t.co/tOQQhW0Fvb — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If every Dem primary/caucus were held today, Biden would win nowhere near 50% of the vote nationally but he’d easily win a majority of DNC delegates b/c few others would consistently hit 15% thresholds. This is likely to change, but for now it’s a big advantage for him. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another scenario: it’s mid-Nov. 2020 & the entire race hinges on an AZ cliffhanger. After weeks of counting, the D nominee pulls ahead at the end. Trump gracefully concedes, thanking AZ officials for conducting a fair, fraud-free count. Wait, one of these things is not plausible — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(This isn’t to throw shade at the DNC’s choice of Milwaukee. It’s a great choice. It’s just not really a valid reason for Dems to pin their hopes of winning back WI.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Milwaukee 2020: because Philly 2016 clinched Pennsylvania...oh wait — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's more or less what this nightmare scenario for Dems looks like in the @FiveThirtyEight Swing-o-Matic (replace Clinton's name w/ whatever Dem you wish): https://t.co/vYhzaL4bWs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Why does Trump have a better chance of holding Wisconsin than MI or PA in 2020? Here you go... Non-college whites vs. African-Americans as % of electorate (rough estimate): PA: 50% / 10% MI: 53% / 13% WI: 57% / 6% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A couple more thoughts on this: 1) Of the states above, AZ & WI strike me as the likeliest to be decisive “tipping point” states 2) FL is trending poorly for Dems & AZ/NC likely to be riper targets 3) If it comes down to one vote, Omaha’s #NE02 more winnable for Dems than #ME02 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A very plausible 2020 scenario Dems have to take seriously: Trump loses popular vote by ~5 million as Dems narrow deficit in TX, expand lead in CA & flip MI/PA blue BUT Trump narrowly holds onto AZ, FL, NC & WI and wins reelection by a single electoral vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Not to discount the Butti-Boom of March & the Warren Swoon of June... ...but just a gentle reminder that we've got 7+ months of ebbs, flows & shiny objects to go before people actually start voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Have to disagree re: this making impeachment politics more complex for Pelosi. Porter & Malinowski are two of the most liberal Ds who flipped R seats in '18 & Clinton won both #CA45 & #NJ07. More importantly, the # of House Ds who support impeachment is still nowhere near 218. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today’s SCOTUS decision should accelerate the (probably) inevitable: Virginia’s evolution to a fully blue state government, in addition to losing swing state status at POTUS level. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let's throw out a few approaches and take a poll. Instead of favoring one political party, district maps should be drawn to: — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A major obstacle to ending partisan gerrymandering: reformers universally believe SCOTUS should find it unconstitutional but don't agree on a remedy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This does NOT make it any likelier, imho, that SCOTUS will take action to rein in *partisan* gerrymandering in the MD/NC & other cases. Interesting mix of justices in the 5-4 VA Bethune-Hill majority: Ginsburg, Sotomayor, Kagan, Thomas, Gorsuch (Breyer dissenting). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: SCOTUS preserves lower court ruling striking down GOP-drawn VA delegates map as a racial gerrymander. New map dramatically increases odds of a Dem takeover in November. https://t.co/BlQD4gM0g9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: SCOTUS upholds lower court ruling striking down previous GOP-drawn VA delegates map as racial gerrymander. New map dramatically increases odds of a Dem takeover in November. https://t.co/BlQD4gM0g9 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

At some point (and I think 20 candidates spread out over 2 nights is a bit past that point), you can’t really call these things “debates.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still, this is going to be a tough district for Dems to flip in 2020. It’s not just wealthy Indy burbs, it’s also got pro-Trump factory towns. In terms of composition, it’s pretty much Indiana’s version of #OH12. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still, this is going to be a tough district for Dems to flip in 2018. It’s not just wealthy Indy burbs, it’s also got pro-Trump factory towns. In terms of composition, it’s pretty much Indiana’s version of #OH12. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And, an added coup for Dems: Brooks isn't just one of 13 women remaining in the House GOP conference, she's the *recruitment chair* of the NRCC. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a classic upscale Whole Foods district, the kind where Dems made serious inroads in 2016/2018. Trump improved over Romney in every other IN district. But in #IN05, Trump took just 53% to Romney's 58%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rep. Susan Brooks (R) retirement moves suburban #IN05 from Solid R to Lean R at @CookPolitical. It's the only Dem-trending GOP-held district in Indiana. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This just doesn’t hold water: 1) Joe Morrissey actually got his highest % in a near-universally black section of SD16, Petersburg. 2) Bumping SD16 from 53% to 55% black would have done nothing to change the outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@chrisbentson No, but would have good chance at ME statewide (2 EVs) if things get out of hand for Dems. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Dems end up w/ a bad nominee, states Trump actually has a chance to flip include ME, MN, NV & NH...but NM/OR would be sign of a delusional campaign. https://t.co/ZaTsHjjTwh — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Shrewd move that, come 2020, will make Democratic presidential nominee Marianne Williamson constitutionally eligible to share a ticket w/ vice presidential nominee Eric Swalwell. https://t.co/fMgGKT2ZfY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This story is totally nuts. To me, it's made even nuttier by the fact that Hofeller (a longtime source, in full disclosure) incessantly preached the importance of data security to his party's redistricting outcomes. https://t.co/lrNxPfDSSq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: I did something crazy last week: I tried to get away from analyzing Trump in minute by minute chunks, and to put his presid… — PolitiTweet.org