Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Right now, African-Americans are 33% of Louisiana's population but have an opportunity in just one of the state's six districts. But Edwards (D)'s reelection makes it possible for Dems to at least fight for 2/6. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Under this scenario, New Orleans's #LA02 would go from 62% to 52% AA and #LA05 (parts of Baton Rouge, Alexandria and Monroe as drawn here) would go from 35% to 50.1% AA. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The map below proves it'd be possible to draw two African-American districts in Louisiana...and still make it *more* compact than the current map (right now, the 5R-1D map packs African-American voters into #LA02). Expect a showdown over this in 2021. https://t.co/gLkNYV3q4U — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The degree to which Bloomberg’s potential bid has been covered as a potentially serious shakeup of the 2020 race shows just how badly many media elites misread what Dem voters/the electorate are looking for. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: Edwards’s final margin of 2.6% was a bit wider than I expected at the time of the call, largely because turnout surged so much in late-reporting Orleans Parish relative to the state. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If anyone still doubts southern suburbs are getting bluer, Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) just carried a set of NOLA suburbs where Obama got *26%* of the vote in 2008. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*2021 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Have to give credit to Edwards/Dems' runoff turnout operation, particularly w/ African-American voters. Compared to the primary, turnout was up... 29% in New Orleans 26% in Shreveport 14% in Baton Rouge (w/ 6 precincts still out) And just 9% everywhere else. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

FWIW, it looks like Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) will end up carrying 24/64 parishes en route to winning a runoff by almost exactly the same margin as Landrieu '02... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Dems are now guaranteed a seat at the 2011 redistricting table in Louisiana, where it's absolutely possible to draw a second African-American majority district (current map is 5R-1D). #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

These aren't as partisan/polarized as federal races. But overall, Dems have to feel pretty ecstatic about winning back Kentucky (Trump +30%) and holding Louisiana (Trump +20%) by the slimmest of margins. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just about the only part of Louisiana that was on the right track for Rispone (R) was Houma/Thibodaux. Otherwise, Edwards (D) did great in suburbs & Abraham's district. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We all know major cities are trending blue, but Edwards (D) breaking 90% in Orleans Parish is still pretty breathtaking. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A key to tonight's #LAGOV outcome: the small but critical bloc of Ralph Abraham (R) primary voters who either stayed home or voted for Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) in the runoff. It sure was evident in the parish-level results tonight. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The final margin is likely to be very close. A Dem strategist I just spoke with credits LSU's win vs. Alabama for voters' satisfaction w/ direction of state & Edwards's razor-thin victory. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough. Projection: Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) has defeated Eddie Rispone (R) to win a second term. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Terrebonne Parish (Houma) 100% in: Edwards (D) needed 37.2%, per my benchmarks. He got 36.4%. But may not be enough for Rispone (R). #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Jefferson Parish 99% in. Edwards (D) needed 55.9% there per my benchmarks. He's at 57.0% right now. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lafayette Parish 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 40.8% per my benchmarks. He got 40.3%. Not too far off. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Franklin Parish 100% in: Edwards (D) needed 32.6% per my benchmarks. He got 36.6%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Richland Parish 100% in: Edwards (D) needed 37.7%, per my benchmarks. He got 43.1%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've yet to see a part of Louisiana where Eddie Rispone (R)'s numbers tonight have really impressed. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

St. Landry Parish 100% reporting. Edwards (D) needed 49.9% there per my benchmarks. He got 51.7%. Another good sign for him. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

St. Mary Parish 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 43.4% per my benchmarks. He got 44.5%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

St. John the Baptist Parish (majority African-American) 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 72.8% per my benchmarks. He got 74.1%. Turnout up 6% overall vs. primary. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Washington Parish 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 47.4% per my benchmarks. He got 48.2%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Jefferson Parish (suburban NOLA) 85% in. Edwards (D) needed 55.9% per my benchmarks. He's at...55.9%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Livingston Parish (ruby red) 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 30.1% per my benchmarks. He got 29.6%. Not far off. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Acaida Parish 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 28.7% per my benchmarks. He got 28.1%. But overall, more overperformance than underperformance for him. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Ascension Parish (outside Baton Rouge) 100% in. Edwards (D) needed 46.1% per my benchmarks. He got 47.7%. #LAGOV — PolitiTweet.org