Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My apologies for miscalculating/underestimating the impact satellites could have on the SDE count. Try hard on here to make sense of election returns quickly, but this IA count has posed some...unique challenges, to say the least. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just when you thought Iowa math couldn't get more convoluted... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Taniel: what's happening: Sanders's campaign clearly organized satellites. (Some were on campuses; some in mosques; one for Spanish spe… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This is a plot twist, for sure. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In Howard Co., IA, the only county in America that voted for both Obama '12 & Trump '16 by more than 20%, Dem caucus turnout was down by 57% (!) vs. 2008, from 631 to 270. Not a great sign of Dem enthusiasm there. https://t.co/TxFYMyExUf — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To put this in a better context: Monday's turnout of 255 Democrats in Clarke Co. was down *55%* from the 568 who showed up in 2008 (statewide, it was only down about 29%). In 2012, Obama carried Clarke Co. 50%-48%. In 2016, Trump carried it 61%-33%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rural Dem atrophy: in 2012, Obama carried Clarke County, IA 50%-48% over Romney. In 2020, Trump received more than twice as many caucus votes as each of the Dems running even though he didn't face real opposition. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Warren only leading in Johnson Co. (Iowa City) and losing all 98 other counties perfectly illustrates just how dependent she is on college+ white liberals. That’s a huge problem for her viability moving forward. https://t.co/Zf7m07sT0n — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

How many caucus-goers showed up there vs. how many voters would've showed up in a primary? A small fraction. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

What actually went wrong for Biden in Iowa: it's a 90%+ white caucus state with lots of passionate, liberal young caucus-goers. https://t.co/ta0DP7BwBs — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As far as Buttigieg goes, he just won* the Iowa caucus. He's got no reason to stand down before 3/3 just b/c he doesn't win NH or has a poor showing in NV or SC. The situation w/ Warren is a bit different. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Still don't think he'll win the nomination, but the case for Bloomberg's 3/3 viability is pretty strong (admittedly stronger than I would've thought: 1) He's at 8-9% nationally (likely higher in Super Tuesday states) 2) He'll outspend everyone combined 3) Field likely to winnow — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Projection: Pete Buttigieg will win the most state delegate equivalents (SDEs) in the IA caucus. Bernie Sanders will win the most caucus-goers on on "First Alignment" and, most likely, on final alignment. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @WakeUp2Politics: Mitt Romney will be the first senator in U.S. history to vote to convict a president of his own political party. https… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

GOP state of affairs: President Trump has legit awarded the Medal of Freedom to Rush Limbaugh. Dem state of affairs: in a party where less than 30% of primary voters are white men, Super Tuesday currently on track to come down to four white dudes, three of whom are 77+. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If Warren can’t beat Sanders in NH, where can she win (outside of MA)? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you had to paint a perfect storm for a contested convention, it would basically be what we have...4-5 Dems on track to be broadly viable (15%) on Super Tuesday. They are: 1) Sanders 2) Biden 3) Bloomberg 4) Buttigieg 5) Warren* *Maybe, at this rate. So all dudes? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @amyewalter: There is zero electoral benefit for Collins or Jones in voting against the party. They lose support from the base and get n… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

IMO people should be turning more attention from the Iowa clusterf*** to Dems’ total lack of clarity and the likelihoods of: 1) no one being on track for 50% of delegates post-Super Tuesday 2) this thing being settled by either a contested convention or very controversial deal — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Lesson from 2008 and 2016: the ebb/flow of presidential primaries is less about “momentum” and more about demograph… https://t.co/B3tNUusvoH — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I wouldn’t be surprised if Biden finished 4th again in NH - and then still won SC reasonably comfortably. The demographic spreads are just that wide. But NV will be interesting... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The reason Warren's 3rd place could be even worse than Biden's 4th place: it's easy to point to places Biden still… https://t.co/uAObv7ZlkE — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The point @clairecmc just made - that Buttigieg/Biden/Klobuchar are adding up to 56% vs. Sanders/Warren at 43% - is an important one. 2020 Dem voters (even in IA) aren't as liberal as often portrayed, and Buttigieg wouldn't be ahead without Biden/Klobuchar second choice votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Also, if I were Biden and had to pick another candidate besides me to "win" Iowa, I'd pick Buttigieg - whose coalition really isn't a threat in South Carolina or more diverse Super Tuesday states. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The real win for Buttigieg: the cable networks' enormous focus on state delegate equivalents (where he leads) over first/final alignments (where Sanders leads). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And there you have it... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd be much more concerned if I were Warren. The caucus was supposed to play into many of her strengths - emphasis on organizing and more liberal party loyalists. Right now, she's the only one in the top five who doesn't lead in any of Iowa's 99 counties. https://t.co/100OeJzc1i — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A split decision b/t Sanders & Buttigieg - as seems likely right now - is hardly "catastrophic" for Biden. Iowa's caucus electorate played into virtually all of Biden's weaknesses, and now there's a bigger spotlight on the chaos than him. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If this is SDEs, seems fairly likely Sanders is still ahead on "First Alignment" metric. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Something that’s pretty clear: if Buttigieg prevails on final alignment/SDEs, he’ll owe his margin to the 2nd choice support of Biden/Klobuchar groups that failed to hit 15%. — PolitiTweet.org