Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

One thing I think more people should understand: for Biden, just *holding* Trump to '16 margins among WWC voters in places like northern WI would be a huge win (given their trend line). Biden's route to winning WI back is doing better than Clinton in white-collar (i.e. the WOW). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's almost as if it's hazardous to predict which side/candidate will benefit from an unprecedented election circumstance. https://t.co/0lzoihn6yw — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: Biden starts the general election with a lead in national polls, but it's closer than it looks. The polls show the electorat… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Conblob @StephieTheLefty @SenhorRaposa @JMilesColeman @xxxneonslavexxx 1998 upset of the night: Rush Holt (D) over Mike Pappas (R) in #NJ12 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@StephieTheLefty 2002 South Dakota Senate race between Tim Johnson (D) & John Thune (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It’s not just ventilators. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind, though: a Garcia (R) upset wouldn't be a firm step towards the majority for Republicans. He's guaranteed a rematch vs. Smith (D) in November and higher turnout could make it harder for him to win a full term. #CA25 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

To put former Navy fighter pilot Mike Garcia (R)'s challenge in perspective, not a single GOP member of the House represents a district where Hillary Clinton took an absolute majority in 2016 (she took 50.1% in #CA25). Yet he's highly competitive vs. Assemb. Christy Smith (D). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

NEW at @CookPolitical: the 5/12 special election to replace former Rep. Katie Hill (D) in #CA25 moves from Lean D to Toss Up. https://t.co/dvpNdmbPhc — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now that the general election has begun, a poll question I expect to be pretty telling: “Is your vote more a vote for [Biden/Trump], or a vote against [Trump/Biden]?” My bet: we’ll have never seen a disparity so wide. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Aside from the baseless mail-in fraud claim (see WA, OR, CO, AZ, FL https://t.co/qKNONLMnyC.) a partisan stalemate over election funding/modes leaves America dangerously vulnerable to widespread, gaping disparities in access to November ballot if a public health crisis persists. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In general, I think too many people are taking for granted that the U.S. is capable of holding an election broadly accepted as legitimate in November, when the president himself sowed doubts about the legitimacy on an election he *won* last time. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And btw, public officials changing course last-minute is also highly problematic. Many states have a mammoth amount of work to do (and potentially need federal $$) to ensure widespread availability of no-excuse absentee voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The question isn't just WI; it's what every state is going to do *now* to ensure certainty and access for voters in November, whatever the circumstances. Courts deciding rules last-minute is a recipe for disaster. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

That was such an impressive five minute healthcare non-answer from Pence, even Trump had to tip his hat. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Believe it or not, there are people who don't think about politics all the time, lack a fixed ideology/opinion of Trump and still vote in American elections. https://t.co/a2k2sJfGXB — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finding it's perfectly healthy to avoid news networks that make their own reporters/confrontations with Trump "the story" in favor of outlets that stay focused and reserve their headlines for data, hospitals & front-line workers. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But when I hear arguments like "Biden's got a totally different coalition/appeal from Clinton, so Trump's advantage in the Electoral College no longer applies," I don't buy it. There is no realistic scenario in which Biden defeats Trump but is only winning the PV by like 1%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are a few plausible Biden routes to beating Trump: 1) match Clinton gains in upscale burbs & improve among rural/non-college 2) do even better than Clinton in burbs & hold ground w/ rural/non-college 3) gain w/ both Any of these = expanding on Clinton's 2.1% PV margin. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Keep in mind: if this were the actual popular vote result, Trump would likely win the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hey, at least he won Garvin County (with just 17 votes). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Once again: why relevant? This is one factor driving the partisan, urban/rural gulf in public opinion on the severity of the crisis. The question is whether public opinion changes when, as most experts expect, these %s start becoming more proportional. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Update: in the past three days, the #COVID19 U.S. death toll has doubled, but Trump-won counties' share of all deaths has actually *fallen* from 19% to 17% as toll in NY, NJ & Detroit has surged, per JHU data. Trump-won counties make up 45% of the U.S. population. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

No House R represents a seat where Hillary Clinton took more than 50% of the vote in 2016. Clinton took 57% in #FL26. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Already going after the running mate. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If the goal is to ensure full access to voting, there’s only one fair way for states to conduct the November election: get rid of the barriers and mail ballots to every registered voter (as CO, OR & WA already do). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When it comes to shifting to all vote-by-mail, there are *huge* potential turnout differences between: 1) forcing all voters to actively request an absentee ballot (OH) 2) mailing all voters VBM applications (NE) 3) automatically mailing all voters a ballot (CO, OR, WA) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: Check out @Redistrict talking about his latest House rating changes. Read his full article here and subscribe: https:/… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jslovegrove: Just in: @RepCunningham announces that he has tested positive for coronavirus. #scpol — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I suspect today might be the best day yet for Massie's primary opponent, pro-Trump attorney Todd McMurtry (primary 6/23). #KY04 a solid GOP seat. https://t.co/cpJdyxrkPH — PolitiTweet.org