Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A few African-American candidates I'll be watching for a potential "breakthrough" storyline in 6/23 Dem primaries for seats that have typically nominated whites: #NY16 Jamaal Bowman #NY17 Mondaire Jones #VA05 Cameron Webb #KYSEN Charles Booker — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Believe it or not, no such tweet is forthcoming — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@AdamParkhomenko Right, because Governors Charlie Baker and Phil Scott are great harbingers of those barnburner MA and VT Senate races. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And I'm used to seeing delusional, hopeless candidates bilk donors and rail against "number crunchers" year after year. Reality check: #CA23 voted for Trump by 22% in 2016 and McCarthy by 27% in 2018. But congrats on your knack for duping donors. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Frankly, so is Amy McGrath raising $41 million in #KYSEN (yes, I’ve seen those polls, but sorry, we’ve seen this movie before and at the end, a Trump +30 state is not electing her to the Senate). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The number of people currently liking/retweeting this Dem w/ precisely zero chance of winning is a pretty strong testament to the power of wishful thinking. #CA23 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are plenty of large suburban counties across the country where the GOP/Trump brand is in decline. Then there’s Gwinnett County, GA, where it’s in free fall. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JacobRubashkin: Kind of insane that a week later there are still over 200,000 uncounted votes. In 2018, Brian Kemp beat Stacey Abrams… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Picked quite the weekend to visit. #VA05 https://t.co/zyn4jF1HYq — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Actual GOP proceedings in #VA05 the past two years: 1) Congressman withdraws from ballot citing struggle w/ alcoholism 2) GOP committee replaces him w/ distillery owner & Bigfoot enthusiast 3) New incumbent loses at a drive-thru convention after officiating a same-sex marriage — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Breaking: @CookPolitical will be moving #VA05 from Likely R to Lean R following Rep. Denver Riggleman (R)’s drive-thru convention defeat. https://t.co/CCDooUbE4d — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: I guess one thing that really stands out here is that it doesn't take that much to go from a massive Biden Electoral Co… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Unreal. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Actually, the only eight counties with a pro-Dem registration trend line since Nov. 2016 make up only 30% of PA's registered voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Seeing a few replies to the tune of "but the blue-trending counties have so many more people." A stat that still s… https://t.co/yb3U99dJox — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The story here: the GOP brand keeps declining in suburban PA & Dems especially have a lot to like about the Harrisburg region. But the D brand is still in free fall in non-major metro PA (where there are still a lot of voters!) and Biden would do well to match Clinton %s there. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The >100k pop. counties w/ the biggest pro-GOP *shifts* in D vs. R registration margin since 2016: 1. Cambria (R+12%) 2. Fayette (R+12%) 3. Westmoreland (R+7%) 4. Mercer (R+7%) 5. Beaver (R+7%) 6. Washington (R+6%) 7. Schuylkill (R+6%) 8. Lycoming (R+5%) 9. Luzerne (R+5%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The only counties w/ pro-Dem *shifts* in D vs. R registration margin since 2016: 1. Delaware (D+6%) 2. Chester (D+5%) 3. Montgomery (D+5%) 4. Cumberland (D+3%) 5. Lancaster (D+2%) 6. Bucks (D+1%) 7. Dauphin (D+1%) 8. Centre (D+0%) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Looking at the voter registration trend in Pennsylvania, it looks a lot like it did between 2012-2016. *Since* Nov. 2016, Democrats' registration advantage has fallen from 11% to 9% (Ds currently lead 47.5% to 38.3%). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@posglen The question I'm raising isn't who's responsible. It's what a fair remedy would be in the event massive numbers of voters are disenfranchised through no fault of their own. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@posglen Doesn’t matter whether it’s the state or county’s fault, Glen. A disaster’s a disaster. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Imagine an election meltdown like today's in Georgia, except in November (with twice the turnout rate), in a state poised to tip the presidential race & where non-white turnout is poised to decide the winner. Goodnight. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've watched hundreds of GOP primary ads in the past few days. If you think R candidates are rethinking their allegiance to Trump, I would like some of your hallucinogenic drugs. Here's the likely next member from #GA14: https://t.co/FX2laegAUY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

House rating change in today's @CookPolitical open seat rundown: Rep. Greg Gianforte (R)'s open #MTAL moves from Likely R to Lean R. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @jbouie: an election where people are waiting for 7 or 8 hours to cast a ballot is not a free and fair election — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A big reason Democrats are such strong favorites to keep their House majority? Republicans have three times as many open seats to defend. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Have to say, in times like these, there's something liberating about writing up a long research project only a few people will read vs. 280-character bursts everyone will pounce on. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wondering what's happening in the races for all 32 of those open GOP House seats? My latest 5,800-word rundown is now available for @CookPolitical subscribers. https://t.co/qReL9L1b45 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'm old enough to remember when in 2018, McLaughlin vociferously tried to "unskew" a NYT/Siena poll showing their client, a GOP House incumbent, down 1%. McLaughlin's own poll claimed their client was *up* by 10%. McLaughlin's client lost by 2%. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: My prior is that the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote *shrinks* as Biden's lead grows, and therefore w… — PolitiTweet.org