Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Finally, six GOP incumbents move out of Solid R into @CookPolitical's Likely R category, which is essentially an anti-Trump wave watch list: #CA04 Tom McClintock (R) #NC09 Dan Bishop (R) #OH12 Troy Balderson (R) #TX03 Van Taylor (R) #TX06 Ron Wright (R) #TX25 Roger Williams (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, six Dem incumbents move into safer @CookPolitical categories: #PA08 Matt Cartwright (D) Toss Up to Lean D #CA39 Gil Cisneros (D) Lean D to Likely D Likely D to Solid D: #AZ02 Ann Kirkpatrick (D) #CO06 Jason Crow (D) #MN03 Dean Phillips (D) #VA10 Jennifer Wexton (D) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, four GOP incumbents move from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical: #KS02 Steve Watkins (R) #MN01 Jim Hagedorn (R) #NC08 Richard Hudson (R) #WA03 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's simultaneously possible for Ohio to be in play - and for it to be a poor strategic decision for either campaign to spend $$ there (right now only the Trump campaign is). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Additionally, four GOP incumbents move from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical: #KS02 Steve Watkins (R) #ME01 Jim Hagedorn (R) #NC08 Richard Hudson (R) #WA03 Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Most notably, three GOP incumbents and one open seat move from Lean R to Toss Up: #IN05 OPEN (Brooks) (R) #NE02 Don Bacon (R) #OH01 Steve Chabot (R) #TX21 Chip Roy (R) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Because the erosion in President Trump's support is disproportionately occurring among college-educated whites, it's especially acute in suburban House districts with high numbers of them - and these @CookPolitical rating changes reflect that. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03) https://t.co/58FyEjkERG — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. https://t.co/30m5A0jBVo — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction. https://t.co/Bb9UCO1Jm7 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This morning, @CookPolitical will be moving 20 House race ratings, all towards the same party. Stay tuned... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Biden is ahead by 9.1% in today's @FiveThirtyEight average. Bottom line: Trump would need to close that gap by at least 5 points to be highly competitive in the race for the Electoral College. https://t.co/bzoeFgK5nZ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Pretty amazing that Trump is at 35% w/ Hispanics but just 31% w/ college+ whites in this @QuinnipiacPoll (small samples I know). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's tough to find a district that's morphed as rapidly as #TX24 in the DFW suburbs. True story: In 2012, it was majority white and voted for Mitt Romney by 22%. In 2016, it voted for Trump by just 6%. In 2018, it voted for Beto by 4%. Today, it's majority non-white. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Random observation: FL & AZ have the highest Hispanic shares of the six core battleground states, a demographic where Biden is underperforming. But Biden might not be paying a price b/c FL & AZ also have the highest shares of seniors, where he's overperforming. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Paul LePage-endorsed former state Rep. Dale Crafts (R) wins the GOP primary in #ME02 for the right to take on Rep. Jared Golden (D) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: M.J. Hegar (D) defeats Royce West (D) in the #TXSEN Dem runoff and will face Sen. John Cornyn (R) in November. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: former White House physician Ronny Jackson (R) has defeated Josh Winegarner (R) in the #TX13 runoff. Trump won the district 80%-17% in 2016, so to call Jackson a lock in November would be an understatement. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've seen enough: Candace Valenzuela (D) defeats Kim Olson (D) in the #TX24 Dem runoff and will face Beth Van Duyne (R) in November. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow: Kathaleen Wall (R) losing the #TX22 runoff to Troy Nehls (R) 71%-29% after self-funding $7.4 million. She spent $6 million to lose in a nearby district in 2018. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Big win for Trump and loss for ag commodity groups as former WH physician Ronny Jackson (R) on the verge of defeating Josh Winegarner (R) in runoff for open #TX13. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Upset in the making in #AL02, as state Rep. Barry Moore (R) on verge of defeating self-funding moving company owner Jeff Coleman (R) after trailing 38%-20% in the initial primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bigger concern here: massive potential for confusion on Election Night & doubts in the weeks following considering most of the voting public - and even much of the media - has little understanding of how a vote count actually works. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.s. This is a pretty dismal special election showing for Rs. Trump carried #NY27 by 25% but Jacobs (R)’s 8% lead over McMurray (D) could narrow even further to ~6% when Niagara Co. finishes its absentee count. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Need proof we’re headed for a massive divide between Election Day results & absentees? Look no further than last month’s special in #NY27 (a seat Trump won by 25%), where Chris Jacobs (R) led 70%-28% on election night but now leads just 53%-45% w/ most absentees counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Actually think this might be more effective w/ persuadable voters than any of the shiny ads w/ Trump footage and dramatic music — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Proof reforms don’t guarantee less gerrymandered maps: this hypothetical OH map would split fewer counties than the current 12R-4D plan & avoid splitting Cleveland/Cincinnati to comply w/ 2018’s ballot initiative, but would likely result in a 13R-2D (!) delegation. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I suspect Candace Valenzuela's story is going to be getting a lot more national attention if she wins the #TX24 runoff. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Just as 2016 was all about remaining white working class Dems massively defecting to Trump, at the moment 2020 is poised to be all about remaining white professional Rs massively defecting to Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let’s be real about what’s driving Biden’s margin relative to 2016: white professionals & white seniors. — PolitiTweet.org