Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: as much as I watch all the state/national polls that generate all the buzz, I’ll be watching these district polls like a hawk. So far, I haven’t seen much evidence of “the shift” part deux. Maybe it will never happen! But it’s still August. Long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The upshot for Biden: because white-working class voters have dwindled as a share of the eligible electorate *everywhere* since 2016, Trump needs to not only get back to his 2016 margins w/ these voters but significantly up their turnout to stay in the game. Possible, but tough. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But as the campaign intensifies and more casual voters start tuning in, I consider Biden’s support in white-working class districts much more fragile. A lot of these politically low-engaged voters live in a local news/info ecosystem that is much Trump-friendlier than elsewhere. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fast forward: today, Biden is polling spectacularly in heavily college+ suburban districts (he’s ahead in a few districts Clinton lost by 10%+!) *and* impressively overperforming Clinton in white working class districts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A lot of this polling was never publicly released, but both parties were detecting it. And a lot of statewide/national polls weren’t showing it, perhaps b/c of sparsity of PA/WI/MI polls, failure to properly weight whites by education, etc. But it turned out to be real. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

As the 2016 campaign intensified, I saw something I now think of as “the shift.” In a lot of heavily white working class districts (think northern Maine/Wisconsin etc.), Trump leads that had been ~5% in Sept had blown open to 15%+ in Oct., etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I’d venture to guess my friends @nathanlgonzales, @kkondik and I get to see more unique data sets of presidential polling than just about anyone in the country (b/c no competent House-level pollster doesn’t poll the top of the ticket). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thread: one of the reasons I love covering House races is that analyzing things at a district level can reveal a lot of micro-trends before they show up nationally or even statewide... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ChrisPack716 It wasn't so long ago Allen West won this district (tho Likely R means we still view Mast as the heavy favorite). #FL18 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yeah. Biden’s most effective argument is “Trump doesn’t understand you can’t get the economy/life back to normal unless you get the virus under control.” Not sure this ad connects those dots clearly or is the best use of 60 seconds. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@jbouie I don’t think they’re “disconnected from national news conversations” and never said they were. They’re simply likelier to get that news through a more right-wing lens - friends/neighbors’ Facebook feeds, talk radio, Fox, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sure, Bush branded Kerry a flip-flopper and Obama branded Romney a corporate robber baron. But when you're at a 41% approval rating, you've got to take it to a whole new extreme. And Biden is up against an incumbent who doesn't play by the rules. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Tonight also a reminder of the extreme extent to which Trump is a "predator brand" (to paraphrase a GOP media consultant), w/ no hope of success without eviscerating opponents, even as an incumbent. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Nate_Cohn: The Trump team has been pretty slow to resolve on a clear line of attack on Biden. There was Ukraine. There was establishmen… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In fact, it must be more of that three-dimensional chess. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Accusing political opponents of "living in walled off compounds" while delivering a speech on WH grounds at a convention that featured the McCloskeys is an interesting strategy. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Milwaukee Co. and Dane Co. (Madison) make up ~25% of WI's vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

It's too bad Trump is not charismatic (per Prof. Allan Lichtman's keys). That would seem to be an important trait for delivering a convention speech. https://t.co/XzNEKoVPJx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of all the RNC's many impressive production qualities, the most impressive might be that they appear to be broadcasting from the future, when the pandemic no longer exists. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@IChotiner Not so much that people don't understand it, more that people who argue the election is a virtual lock underestimate the power of it, esp. in swing states. Or NYT/WaPo op-ed writers who still believe their endorsements/editorials influence anyone's presidential vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Trump has never had a "silent majority," or even plurality. But this is what I mean by non-coastal/college-educated/metropolitan voters living in an alternative news/info ecosystem. Facebook benefits Trump. https://t.co/CFzNCGXYM2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Having a hard time believing Rudy Giuliani is younger than Anthony Fauci...and I'm not sure which one of them that says more about. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The RNC has likely set an all-time record for the amount of speaking time it's given to people of color, but it might be more effective w/ voters if it talked about what the GOP would do to end brutality and heal the country's rift. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Party-switching #NJ02 Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R) might be more vulnerable now than he was last year as a Dem. Joe Kennedy III may now be the underdog in #MASEN, but his cousin's wife Amy Kennedy (D) is polling neck-and-neck vs. Van Drew in #NJ02. @CookPolitical rating: Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Fact: 65% of Wisconsin voters live in counties carried by Trump in '16 (despite Trump taking just 47% in WI). Most of those voters live in a news/info ecosystem that looks nothing like the one most Dems live in and is reacting to events in Kenosha far differently. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @geoffreyvs: Understandable take but it doesn't account for Biden's far higher overall support. Biden's around 50% in likeliest tipping… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @CookPolitical: "Trump is trailing, not because he's losing his 2016 base, but because he has never expanded beyond it." @amyewalter's… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@ElectionBabe it was an invitation to weigh in, so thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

cc: @ElectionBabe — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Don’t get me wrong: I think I’d find it 10x more difficult to be a barista than a poll worker. That said, there is a fair amount of training that goes into making a good/competent poll worker, and doing that in person is just much harder right now. — PolitiTweet.org