Deleted tweet detection is currently running at reduced
capacity due to changes to the Twitter API. Some tweets that have been
deleted by the tweet author may not be labeled as deleted in the PolitiTweet
interface.
Showing page 186 of 504.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Seeing quite a bit of Dem unskewing about Biden's relative weakness w/ Hispanics (esp. in FL), but the evidence keeps piling up. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Democratic weakness (relative to '16) in Miami-Dade has been evident for a while, but this is a particularly tough… https://t.co/Qq3zgswudV
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @jmartNYT: Do folks like this not read accounts of donors getting busted for straw giving or just don’t think they’ll get caught ? Read… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
As @Nate_Cohn and others have pointed out, restoring Milwaukee city turnout to '12 levels would've barely gotten Clinton over the top, but the much bigger culprit here was Clinton's collapse in non-metro WI. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Another more simplified way of looking at this: Milwaukee: +171k Obama, +144k Clinton Milwaukee burbs (MKE + WOW): +126k Romney, +85k Trump Madison/Dane Co.: +132k Obama, +147k Clinton Everything else: +36k Obama, +228k Trump Totals: +213k Obama, +22k Trump — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Wisconsin D-R prez vote by geography in 2012, 2016: Milwaukee: 228k-57k, 189k-45k Milwaukee burbs (MKE + WOW): 226k-352k, 220k-305k Madison/Dane Co.: 216k-84k, 218k-71k Everything else: 951k-915k, 755k-983k Totals: 1,621k-1,408k, 1,382k-1,404k — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Task for Dems in WI is far from “easy:” the vast majority of Wisconsin’s 2016 non-voters - 64% - were actually non-college whites. — PolitiTweet.org
stuart stevens @stuartpstevens
Trump won Wi. by less than 1%. Romney lost by 7%. But Romney got more votes. Task for Dems is easy: turn-out the 50… https://t.co/5gTg9U19Si
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A big question mark: even if Biden can't hit Clinton '16 numbers w/ Cubans in Miami-Dade, can he hit Clinton-like numbers w/ non-Cuban Hispanics in Miami-Dade and Puerto Rican voters in Orange/Osceola et. al.? That would make a big difference. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One thing I've concluded looking at these maps: Hillary Clinton actually ran a very impressive campaign to register, persuade & turn out FL Hispanics (both Cubans & NCHs) in '16, while Trump's effort/message was horrendous. As a result, Trump has some upside w/ them this time. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Trump's path to winning FL in '20 probably looks more like Rick Scott's map in '18 than his own map in '16: probably lose Pinellas (St. Pete) & Duval (Jacksonville), but narrow Biden's margins to ~20% in Miami-Dade & Osceola (both heavily Hispanic). https://t.co/yPkP5Kod9Q — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: It begins https://t.co/VVl9Ig9tMC — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @JenGriffinFNC: Two former sr Trump admin officials confirm .@JeffreyGoldberg reporting that President Trump disparaged veterans and did… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @SteveKornacki: The new Quinnipiac polls show not just Biden leads in key states but also voters who overwhelmingly say their minds are… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@PoliticsReid You’d think after winning by 694 votes you’d want to move a few blocks to be able to vote for yourself... — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @PoliticsReid: Neither Rep. Ben McAdams nor his Republican opponent Burgess Owens will be able to vote for themselves this Nov. Neither… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Redistrict: @Barnes_Law @538politics @NateSilver538 @Nate_Cohn @ForecasterEnten Lol. https://t.co/pfL6mDSJQX — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@Barnes_Law @538politics @NateSilver538 @Nate_Cohn @ForecasterEnten Lol. https://t.co/pfL6mDSJQX — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@NormOrnstein @QuinnipiacPoll Yes, although I’d still narrowly bet on Biden to ultimately win FL Hispanics. Trump has genuine strength among Cubans he didn’t have in ‘16, and Republicans improved among Puerto Rican voters in Orlando in ‘18. Osceola and Miami-Dade underperformance cost Nelson and Gillum big. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Quinnipiac, despite an overall left lean, has a GOP House effect on their Hispanic crosstab (though not their last FL poll,… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This would be consistent w/ other data we’ve seen (including ‘18 results) suggesting a recovery in GOP support among Cubans et. al. since ‘16. Fortunately for Biden, @QuinnipiacPoll shows him winning FL seniors 54%-44% - another sea change since ‘16 - which offsets it. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@NormOrnstein @QuinnipiacPoll It seems pretty plausible to me. Consistent with plenty of other data we’ve seen. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Trump leading FL Hispanic likely voters 45%-43%, per @QuinnipiacPoll. Small sample, etc. but that would be a big change from ‘16, when Clinton pretty clearly won FL Hispanics by double digits. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I think we’re headed for 150 million+ turnout for the first time ever. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
One emerging narrative I’ve been skeptical of: “WI is still strong for Biden but PA is tightening.” A lot of state polling is noisy and there’s no reason to believe they wouldn’t move (or not) together. — PolitiTweet.org
Quinnipiac University Poll @QuinnipiacPoll
Swing State Poll: #JoeBiden leads #PresidentTrump in Pennsylvania among likely voters; presidential race is too clo… https://t.co/sWbbfexUlm
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @Nate_Cohn: Biden by 2 in NC, according to Monmouth. A solid result for Biden that's pretty consistent with those 7-8 point national lea… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
What's striking is just how much Omaha (#NE02) stands out from the pack of battlegrounds. It's truly in a league of its own in terms of Biden's metropolitan growth potential over Clinton '16. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Btw, if you were reorder these by projected '20 vote share of college+ whites... 1. #NE02: 46% 2. Maine: 37% 3. Pennsylvania: 36% 4. Wisconsin: 35% 5. Iowa: 35% 6. Ohio: 33% 7. North Carolina: 33% 8. Michigan: 32% 9. Arizona: 32% 10. Texas: 30% 11. Georgia: 29% 12. #ME02: 28% — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
My updated rough personal ranking of the most flippable Trump '16 turf for Biden: 1. Nebraska's 2nd CD 2. Michigan… https://t.co/95GDPoxbWe
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
But will FB now reject grossly misleading/false election videos less than a week after they’ve already gone viral? — PolitiTweet.org
CeciliaKang @ceciliakang
Big steps for FB but will it be enough? Facebook to reject new political ads 1 week before election and will label… https://t.co/WYfFAHy7vI
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Why is Trump doing better w/ non-whites, esp. Hispanics? Two likely reasons: 1) It's a more working-class, less college-educated vote than whites. Trump doing better w/ non-degrees. 2) Hispanic Rs were much less united in '16 (lingering Rubio animosity, etc.) than they are now. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The bigger erosion for Biden is clearly with Hispanic voters. Trump has gained ground vs. '16, perhaps most dramatically w/ traditionally GOP Hispanic voters such as Cubans. Fascinatingly, for now Biden seems to be offsetting that in FL w/ strong numbers among white seniors. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Look, there are some crazy numbers floating around this site. But it does seem clear Trump has more Black support today than he had in '16 polls. He's at ~9%, not 5%. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
However, August polls show Trump continuing to overperform vs. '16 with non-whites, despite his white erosion. Amo… https://t.co/LOf8J7oCZj
