Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Today’s PA Supreme Court rulings on postmark deadline, Green Party & drop boxes have been hailed as big victories for Biden. But overall, I’m not so sure Biden got the better end of these rulings. 1/ https://t.co/QSDhocmQce — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Let’s all hope naked ballots aren’t the next hanging chads... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@LeanTossup @rudnicknoah @RobertMartinLT @EScrimshaw https://t.co/Da5RKmSUML — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@KateEClement Weren’t you at @UChiPolitics? — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

All kidding aside, I'm not sure anyone has guessed it yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

p.s. by "rating changes," I might have actually meant fiddle videos... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bustin' yer neck: the new malarkey. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Watching this town hall, I'm seeing a Biden who's actually a bit sharper/crisper than he was in the early Dem debates. It's almost as if he might have been out of *practice* early on, rather than out of it. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@UNCKSL @gelliottmorris Solid empirical modeling is terrific! My original "truth" was in reference to not *needing* models to be able to tell what's fundamentally going on. For example, even without any "secret sauces," it'd be pretty apparent Biden enjoys a modest lead. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

My https://t.co/mrctbKJv0A petition: Sufjan, please go back to the 50 states album project. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Redistrict: @gelliottmorris Yup, our rating system is a model. It's actually mostly quantitative, but also incorporates intelligence co… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@gelliottmorris Yup, our rating system is a model. It's actually mostly quantitative, but also incorporates intelligence collected from extensive meetings w/ candidates, consultants and sources in scores of districts. But, you don't need our ratings to see that House Dems are doing pretty well. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Hint: it's actually *not* #TX03. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Truth — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CrassPolitical @CookPolitical We've had #OH01 in Toss Up for two months. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

We've got three major House rating changes coming to @CookPolitical tomorrow, including one that would've shocked me a month ago. Stay tuned. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If O'Rourke had matched Clinton's %s of the two-party vote in the 74 mostly Hispanic TX counties where he underperformed her, he would've narrowed Cruz's margin by ~40k votes (Cruz won by 214,921 votes). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The top seven TX counties w/ >10k voters where O'Rourke '18 underperformed Clinton '16 were all heavily Hispanic: 1. Maverick -6% 2. Webb -5% 3. Cameron -4% 4. Starr -3% 5. Hidalgo -2% 6. Val Verde -1% 7. Jim Wells -1% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Keith335 @RachelBitecofer The record shows otherwise. https://t.co/kqYDt8I664 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@TravisKniffin @Nate_Cohn @RachelBitecofer https://t.co/kqYDt8I664 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Her final, much-touted 2018 House forecast (documented on 11/6/18 below) had Dems at +45 seats, which was pretty close to the result (+40)! But no closer than our forecast (+35), worse than @FiveThirtyEight's (+39) and got lots more individual races wrong. https://t.co/fqFSddpQYM — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, this tradeoff is terrific for Dem prospects of picking up TX state house seats. There's no GOP upside in state legislative races from Trump narrowing his deficit in the RGV. But there's huge Dem upside in state legislative races from major metro suburbs trending blue. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Or, Trump could very plausibly offset his declines in TX's wealthy suburbs w/ gains in poorer, heavily Hispanic counties in the RGV, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@BrianDStraw Krassenstein Brothers/Dr. Eugene Gu of election forecasters — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This might get you flunked out of an entry level politics/stats class. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @BenjySarlin: Fascinating stuff in this @NBCNews/@Quibi poll of 2,000 young voters. Biden is beating Clinton's margin with Gen Z and Mil… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: A fun House TV ad in #MN07 >> Two sisters of Rep Collin Peterson (D) remind voters of the time he "played in a band with W… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Two more strong crosstabs for Biden in this AZ @MonmouthPoll of RVs (albeit small sample size): 1) Biden leading among seniors 52%-46% - not dissimilar from the pattern we've seen in FL 2) Biden leading Maricopa Co. 50%-41% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @MonmouthPoll has Biden leading AZ Latinos 63%-33%. It's still not quite where Clinton was in '16...but! There's been ample evidence of less Dem erosion among Latinos of Mexican ancestry than Cuban/Venezuelan, which bodes relatively well for Biden's chances in AZ. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @marceelias: BREAKING: Pennsylvania rules Green Party candidates for President and Vice-President must be REMOVED from ballot. Last obs… — PolitiTweet.org