Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, as far as I can recall, this is the first time we've ever had #VA05 in Toss Up while under GOP control in my 13 years at @CookPolitical. Even in '08, we had it in Lean R when Tom Perriello scored a massive upset. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

There are tons of terrific aspiring analysts worthy of more attention - too many to list here - including plenty of women and people of color (and we badly need more of them in this field). And that's all I have to say about that. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I believe deeply in widening the circle of data-driven elections folk, and love getting to know up-and-coming analysts. But let your analysis speak for yourself. A nice note goes a long way. Fire-bombing others' threads and engaging in relentless self-promotion is poor form. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @TexasTribAbby: NRCC cancels $2 million in advertising in Houston for the last two weeks of the campaign: https://t.co/5dUUDD6kKe — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yes, voting enthusiasm is really high. But there’s just no way we’ll have a clear picture of each side’s level until 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

BREAKING: Warner issues no comment on what kind of sandwich he will be having for lunch. #VASEN — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In line to vote, Warner tells me he saw the #VA05 @CookPolitical rating change this morning and thinks Webb will do well in places like Rappahannock Co. Also says he believes Dems would take back Senate if it were decided today, but 45 days “is still a long way to go.” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Voter #397 at Alexandria, VA city hall on first day of in-person early voting: Sen. Mark Warner (D). https://t.co/9dixc2TfF4 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Never noticed this (and at first I thought you said "Cameron"), but the resemblance is pretty nuts. #VA05 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Wow, this stretch of mentions really nailed it. 👏👏 https://t.co/kZau74ZLSO — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This week, a Dem Super PAC released a poll showing Mitsch Bush (D) leading 46%-44%. But it's Mitsch Bush, not Boebert, who might have a ceiling considering how much of #CO03 despises Aspen & Steamboat (Mitsch Bush's hometown). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Of all '20 House races, #CO03 might feature the most cognitive dissonance between DC & a district. DC Dems/media routinely label Boebert a "QAnon candidate." But in #CO03, Dems are attacking her for...wanting to repeal the ACA. Why? The average voter has no clue what QAnon is. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rating change: #CO03 race between Lauren Boebert (R) and Diane Mitsch Bush (D) moves from Likely R to Lean R at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/lf6NWCTw8e — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rating change: #ME02 Rep. Jared Golden (D)'s race vs. Dale Crafts (R) moves from Toss Up to Lean D at @CookPolitical. https://t.co/Tc5yimnBbx — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Which brings us to our next @CookPolitical rating change... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And FWIW, @CookPolitical's decision to move the current Webb/Good race from Lean R to Toss Up was made *before* last night's release of a Dem poll showing #VA05 statistically tied. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

You can't make up the #VA05 timeline if you tried: 2018: R withdraws to seek alcoholism treatment, local GOP replaces him w/ distillery owner & Bigfoot enthusiast 2020: Liberty Univ. wrestling coach ousts new R incumbent at a drive-thru convention over officiating a gay wedding — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But if you really want to know why Webb is running *ahead* of Biden in multiple #VA05 polls, watch these ads: Cameron Webb (D): https://t.co/m05y4ntUa9 Bob Good (R): https://t.co/Vlqmz3w5Ym ...then tell me what stands out. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Meanwhile, Bob Good (R), a former Liberty Univ. athletics official and wrestling coach, launched his campaign b/c Rep. Denver Riggleman (R) officiated a gay wedding. If Riggleman (who called his GOP convention loss "rigged") lifts a finger for Good, it might be his middle one. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

In #VA05, Dems may have found their own their own "unicorn:" Webb is a young, telegenic Black doctor w/ deep ties in both Charlottesville & Southside who touts strong backing from law enforcement and working for "both presidents Obama & Trump." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Perfect storms still happen b/c candidates still matter. In #CA25 earlier this year, Rs flipped a Clinton +7% seat by nominating a "unicorn:" Mike Garcia was a young, Hispanic fighter pilot and defense contractor w/ deep community ties. The profile simply worked. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

But could it be deja vu? In 2008, Tom Perriello pulled off the upset of the cycle in #VA05 against a "biblical" R who ran a stone age campaign. In 2020, Cameron Webb - perhaps Dems' best House candidate anywhere in the country - is running against a "biblical" R & divided GOP. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

If you guessed Charlottesville, VA, you win. A month ago I wouldn’t have guessed we would be moving #VA05 - a deeply polarized, Trump +11% seat - to Toss Up. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Rating change: #VA05 race between Cameron Webb (D) and Bob Good (R) moves from Lean R to Toss Up at @CookPolitical as Republicans sound the alarm. https://t.co/0SHQEeQznV — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A week later, NC mail ballots cast by Black voters are still getting rejected at four times the rate of whites, per this excellent @KaleighRogers story. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

P.s. I didn’t totally pull these numbers out of thin air. The most recent @QuinnipiacPoll of PA a few weeks back showed 47% of Ds planning to vote by mail vs. 13% of Rs. It would, however, be great to have more robust county-level data on “naked ballots” from the June primary. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Put another way: let’s say there are 3 million Biden voters in PA. 50% of them prefer to vote by mail, but 4% of them send their ballots back “naked,” forget to sign in the right place, etc. That would be 60k votes out the window. Trump’s PA margin in 2016 was 44k. /end — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Moreover, the court declined to mandate a “cure” regime for election boards to notify voters of ballot defects and to ensure voters have the opportunity to fix their rejected ballots. That’s quite different from many other states and could prove meaningful in a close race. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The reason? Most PA voters have little experience voting by mail. If 50% of Dems were to vote by mail and only 10% of Reps did, and 5% of ballots were rejected, Biden could be docked 2.5% of his votes and Trump docked only 0.5%. In PA, that could potentially be enormous. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The court sided w/ Trump to reject so-called “naked ballots” - mail ballots that voters forgot to enclose in secrecy envelopes. In the June primary, in at least one county over 5% (!) of mail voters failed to enclose their votes in the inner envelope. https://t.co/NZZxbGti4y — PolitiTweet.org