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Showing page 18 of 504.
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
We've also moved #MI10, where John James (R) starts out w/ a mammoth cash advantage over Carl Marlinga (D), from Lean R to Likely R. The irony: had Rep. Andy Levin (D) chosen to run here (where most of his constituents live) rather than in #MI11, he might have had a chance. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
NEW at @CookPolitical: another two-column rating jump. #WA03 moves from Solid R to Lean R following Trump-endorsed Joe Kent's (R) defeat of pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R). Full analysis: https://t.co/olFrBSRDMe — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Two things can be true: 1) Dems have made big gains in recent years among the college+, high social trust voters who tend to make up a larger share of low-turnout special electorates 2) I don’t think we would’ve seen these strong Dem performances in #NE01/#MN01 pre-Dobbs — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
RT @amyewalter: Trump’s Grip on GOP Remains Strong, but “Red Wave” Looking Smaller w/ @Redistrict and @JessicaTaylor https://t.co/rfPu… — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
This much is clear from Kansas and the #NE01/#MN01 House specials: there's still time for things to snap back before November, but we're no longer living in a political environment as pro-GOP as November 2021. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Finstad's lead down to 50%-48% in #MN01 overall, though the last two counties should push it back up to 51%-47%. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Olmsted Co. (Rochester) just dropped, and it's another big Dem overperformance: Biden +11, Ettinger +17. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
My best guess: Brad Finstad (R) ends up winning #MN01 (Trump +10) by just 51%-47% or so when the final four counties finish reporting. That would be remarkably consistent with the June 28 #NE01 special, when Mike Flood (R) won a Trump +11 seat by just 53%-47%. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
There are four counties left to report in #MN01: Brown, Houston, Martin and Olmsted. Overall, they were tied between Biden/Trump in 2020, vs. Trump +10 in #MN01 as a whole. So we can expect to see Finstad's (R) current 9.6 pt lead narrow significantly. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
New: Blue Earth Co. (Mankato) just dropped, and it's another big Dem overperformance. Biden +4, Ettinger +12. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I've seen enough: Brad Pfaff (D) wins the #WI03 Dem primary and will face Derrick Van Orden (R) in the fall. @CookPolitical November rating: Lean R. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
To be clear, the #MN01 special is still a safe call for Brad Finstad (R), but his final margin over Jeff Ettinger (D) won't be anything to write home about - and fits a pattern of a "red wave" ebb post-Dobbs. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
The GOP margin in the #MN01 special election (9.8 pts) is already below Trump's margin from 2020 (10.1 pts) and the district's two biggest Dem enclaves - Rochester and Mankato - haven't even reported any votes yet. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Two new counties just dropped results in #MN01 w/ huge Dem overperformances: Mower: Biden -6, Ettinger +14 Winona: Biden +0.4, Ettinger +9 Mower is Ettinger's home county, but this is going to end up being a strong Dem showing. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
@MetroGram Called it about two hours ago — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Another possible encouraging sign for Dems re the enthusiasm gap: the only Dem-leaning county reporting so far (Nicollet) is at 34% of its 2020 turnout. Most GOP-leaning counties are only at ~25% of their 2020 turnout. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
In a decent outcome for Dems, Finstad (R) now on track to underperform Trump's 2020 numbers in tonight's #MN01 special: Dodge: Trump +30, Finstad +27 Freeborn: Trump +16, Finstad +17 LeSeuer: Trump +30, Finstad +24 Nicollet: Trump -3, Finstad -6 Steele: Trump +22, Finstad +16 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
And, if Ettinger (D) overperforms in his home county (Mower) or Dem turnout is high in the remaining high-college counties (Blue Earth, Olmsted, Nicollet, Winona), Dems could surpass Biden's numbers. #MN01 — PolitiTweet.org
Nathaniel Rakich @baseballot
On that note, in apparently-completed Rice County, Finstad won 60–37%. Trump also won there 60–37%, so we're lookin… https://t.co/8GhEigy4iO
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
A big deal: WI Assembly Speaker Robin Vos (R) has apparently eked out a primary win over Trump-endorsed challenger Adam Steen (R), 52%-48%. — PolitiTweet.org
Daniel Bice @DanielBice
Text from Assembly Speaker Robin Vos: "I won."
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I've seen enough: Brad Finstad (R) defeats Jeff Ettinger (D) in the #MN01 special election. But it's still too early to know the final margin. Best estimate: high single digits. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I've seen enough: Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) defeats Don Samuels in the #MN05 DFL primary. But it's the closest call of her career. @CookPolitical November rating: Solid D. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
So far, Brad Finstad (R) looks on track for a high single-digit win over Jeff Ettinger (D) in the #MN01 special, which is about what we'd expect. Still a long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
First county looks complete in #MN01 (Rock), and Finstad (R) wins it over Ettinger (D) 67%-32%. In 2020's House race, Hagedorn (R) won it 64%-32% while winning by 3 pts district-wide, so Finstad is hitting the numbers he needs so far. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Rep. Ilhan Omar (D) is clinging to a 51%-48% lead over Don Samuels (D) in the #MN05 DFL primary, but Samuels is running out of real estate to make up that gap. Omar may prevail by a record thin margin. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Whatever the #MN01 special outcome tonight, moderate Brad Finstad (R) will defeat Freedom Caucus-backed Jeremy Munson (R) in the GOP primary for the full term in November. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
I've seen enough: Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) defeats former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) in the #WIGOV GOP primary and will face Gov. Tony Evers (D) in the fall. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
By the count, the #WIGOV GOP primary looks really tight. But judging by what's out, Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) is in a much better position than Rebecca Kleefisch (R). — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Samuels, a Black former Minneapolis councilman who has pushed for stronger police funding, picked up late momentum w/ an endorsement from Mayor Jacob Frey last week & support from more moderate DFL suburban mayors. #MN05 — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Wow: far more of the vote just came in, and #MN05 Rep. Ilhan Omar's (D) lead vs. Don Samuels (D) is down to 51%-48%. — PolitiTweet.org
Dave Wasserman @Redistrict
Trump-endorsed Tim Michels (R) looking quite strong vs. former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch (R) so far in #WIGOV GOP primary. — PolitiTweet.org
