Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1. Trump nominates a conservative woman to SCOTUS before the election and McConnell holds a vote at some point before December, w/ Pence breaking a 50-50 tie to confirm. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

1. Trump nominates a conservative woman to SCOTUS before the election and McConnell holds a vote at some point before December to confirm, w/ Pence breaking a 50-50 tie to confirm. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Another (brief) thread: at the rate 2020 is going, here's how the rest of the year is probably going to play out... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Bottom line: the millions of Obama-Trump voters who will decide the 2020 election are *not* persuaded by attacks on Trump as divisive, bad person. But they *do* despise McConnell and “DC swamp/establishment” Rs. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Btw, I'm not sure groups like @ProjectLincoln, whose ads mostly feature anti-Trump messaging that amounts to porn for base Dems & NeverTrump Rs, have demonstrated they understand this type of swing voter yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @Robillard: From the NYT/Siena polls released this morning: Do you trust Biden or Trump more on appointing a Supreme Court Justice? Ar… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

After all, the Obama-Trump voters Biden needs to win back may have been yearning for a political "outsider" in '16 but are still: 1) extremely against tax cuts for wealthy Americans 2) decidedly against repealing the ACA 3) substantially pro-choice — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The under-utilized Dem message Rs should be most scared of probably goes something like this: "In 2016, Trump promised to drain the swamp. Instead, he became the swamp: he let Mitch McConnell and stock-dumping, ultra-far right GOP senators write his entire domestic agenda." — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Now, there may actually be an opportunity for Dems to win back many of these voters by tying Trump to the "DC swamp:" Mitch McConnell and Rs who want to "end Roe v. Wade, cut more taxes for billionaires" etc. In fact, Biden is *already* winning many of these blue-collar voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

For decades, many of these blue-collar, pro-choice Trump voters had voted for Democrats because they saw Republicans as the party of "Bible thumpers" who moralized against abortion & gay marriage. Then Trump came along, and they didn't mind him as much. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Although Trump downplayed abortion in 2016, voters w/ mostly pro-choice attitudes made up more than a fifth of his support in plenty of battleground states: 25% in Iowa 24% in Florida 24% in Pennsylvania 24% in Michigan 21% in Arizona 20% in Wisconsin 20% in Ohio — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

This morning, I dove into 2016 CCES data (50,000+ person national survey). Only 15% of Clinton's voters at least leaned pro-life and 11% held mixed views (74% at least leaned pro-choice). But 22% of Trump's voters at least leaned pro-choice and another 13% held mixed views. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Namely, the potential for the Roe v. Wade/abortion issue to tear Trump's coalition apart. Much of his 2016 support came from voters who disliked Hillary Clinton, liked his rhetoric on immigration/trade, but are *pro-choice* - especially secular, blue-collar women. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I've heard some analysts argue a SCOTUS fight will help Trump by shifting "what 2020 will be about" from his mismanagement of COVID to a more straightforward partisan cage match. That could happen, but I've always seen some big risks for Trump in a pre-election SCOTUS fight... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SeanTrende: https://t.co/ArFkKxPSFD — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The idea that most vulnerable GOPers have something to gain politically by defying McConnell on SCOTUS flies in the face of recent evidence. These days, breaking ranks almost always loses you more allies than it wins you new converts. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

When I think about the most stalwart Dems remaining in heavily red small towns/rural areas, I think of teachers/librarians. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I asked House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy about this very scenario at @UChiPolitics in May 2019. See his answer for yourself: https://t.co/70iJapmLm3 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Odds of Trump making the “smart play?” — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @GarrettHaake: The whole election just changed in a second, and @realDonaldTrump is on stage in Bemidj. He hasn’t been told, and he’s ta… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @SeanTrende: I'm not sure the country will come back from this. RIP RBG. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @abbydphillip: Urgent release: Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died this evening surrounded by her family at her home in Washingto… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@notlarrysabato If Loudoun was 1,650, Fairfax should have been 5k+ — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@notlarrysabato That’s it? Weak — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Something I hope we can all agree on: thank and be kind to your election staff. They’re doing heroic work under difficult circumstances, dealing w/ a lot of voters who are confused or have questions. They’re working harder than usual to get it right and deserve our gratitude. https://t.co/7O42JHYSky — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A little shorter than the line I just waited in to get into Trader Joe’s (~5 mins). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

So this whole election thing’s over now, right? https://t.co/1VWQeBLYUY — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@julia_azari @nataliemj10 Agree, and I think we all agree that there's a difference between healthy/necessary self-promotion (linking to your model/site, hyping your work to an email list, etc.) and unhealthy self-promotion (relentlessly tagging people, deluging other people's Twitter threads, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @allymutnick: NEW internal Dem poll in #MO02 shows Rep Ann WAGNER (R) & state Sen Jill Schupp (D) tied at 49% (w/ leaners) Trump won th… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Thankful for the mentors I've had, none greater than Mr. @LarrySabato. His example to students has been incredible, no matter what @ratemyskyperoom says. — PolitiTweet.org