Dave Wasserman

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Sure, but per Census, non-Hispanic whites were 72% of registered voters in '18...they'll be at least 70% of RVs in '20. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

I'd be curious if @LeeMiringoff has an explanation for @MaristPoll's approach (and apologies if I've missed it somewhere). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Nationally, Marist seems to consistently be weighting race to about 63-64% white, when the Census reported the electorate was 73% white in both '16 and '18. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

The bizarre thing about the @maristpoll that came out on Friday showing Biden up 52%-42% among RVs didn't seem to be the white college/non ratio, it was the sample being 36% non-white (way high). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Yup. https://t.co/jgAFCRZIGI — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @NateSilver538: PS the Senate skew toward Republicans (6-7 points) is both bigger and more permanent than the Electoral College one (2-3… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @mmurraypolitics: The major findings of our new national NBC News/WSJ poll: 1. Biden maintains his national lead over Trump. Biden 51%… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

New @NBCNews/@WSJ poll (9/13-16): Biden 51% Trump 43% — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Nate_Cohn always keeping me honest — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NateSilver538 Just wait until Republicans retaliate by granting statehood to North Wyoming, South Wyoming, Northeast Dakota, Northwest Dakota, Southeast Dakota and Southwest Dakota. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman Miles- I know you’re upset by last week’s @kkondik Crystal Ball story outlining a nightmare 269-269 tie that the House would likely decide in Trump’s favor. But imho it was a really solid, well-researched article. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman That would be a true doomsday scenario! — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

*87.8 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Taking a moment to reflect. It will never stop being insane that the political/jurisprudential fate of the nation might have hinged on whether or not an 87.5 year old could make it to 88.8. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@NilesGApol @JMilesColeman @leahaskarinam We’re on the same page: Biden is clearly ahead in Wisconsin! And I think he’s like a 75% favorite to win it all. I also know systemic polling errors happen. And see it as *responsible* to point out unlikely outcomes too. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@JMilesColeman @leahaskarinam Was this an unsupported doomsday scenario? https://t.co/GIjxcNVFhi — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Man, that razor-thin 2018 FL Senate outcome is looming pretty large right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@CNY315_ 2 — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

RT @JessicaTaylor: “Greenfield leads with independent voters like Denison 47% to 32% over Ernst. Additionally, 10% of those who say they v… — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Or at least, underperforming w/ Trump voters (enough to negate crossover from traditional Rs who are voting for Biden). — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Beginning to think there is something of a pattern: incumbent GOP women underperforming Trump on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@Technocracy12 Population has nothing to do w/ this. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

@aprihar @gelliottmorris Let's check back after all states certify and see who's right. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

Here's an *actual* prediction: no matter the outcome, Biden ultimately wins a higher share of the vote in #NE02 and AZ than he wins in WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

A major news anchor DMed to ask: "Are these actual predictions or joke predictions?" The answer: neither. The point is, the odds of a major post-election legitimacy crisis are probably not far off from the odds a year ago of a global pandemic striking in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

And no, I do not derive any pleasure whatsoever from laying out this (~1% chance of happening?) worst-case scenario for the country's ability to get past this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

[the end] — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

4. The day before RBG died back in September, the PA Supreme Court clearly ruled that these "naked ballots" could not be counted, even though most of them were counted in the June primary. Furious Dems file a challenge that winds up at SCOTUS in mid-December. By a 5-4 margin... — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

3. PA's count takes weeks, and ultimately Trump is certified the winner by 20,000 votes out of ~7 million. But about 40,000 PA mail ballots are voided b/c VBM-inexperienced voters forgot to enclose them in an inner "secrecy envelope." 80% of these were intended for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict

2. Biden comfortably wins the popular vote by 4-5 million, holds all 20 Clinton states and flips #NE02, Michigan, and Arizona (where Kelly beats McSally). But Trump narrowly carries Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Texas and Georgia. The race hinges on Pennsylvania. — PolitiTweet.org